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Annotated Scenarios Bibliography excerpt from 2010 State of the Future report

The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution - 4G Future Scenarios.Scott Snyder (President and CEO of Decision Strategies International, Inc.) Wharton School Publishing/August 2009/208pps.  Scott Snyder believes that 4G will revolutionize business the way the internet did.  He reviews three scenarios for the impact of 4G wireless: convergence, collision, and confluence.  "4G will not only upgrade existing communication networks to provide much higher speeds compared to previous generations, it will also enable context-aware decisions that will enhance the user's experience and control. Additionally, 4G has the potential to revolutionize product offerings and business operations much to the same effect as the Internet.”  In this book, the author presents early signs from that may foreshadow things to come.  These include Nexus One as a precursor to enhanced surveillance networks and Google as an early AR application.  According to the author,  there may be backlashes against over-use of wireless, such as cellphone disabling/jamming,  but it is more likely that in the future,  we will see a "Nature Aligns" scenario where the user is in control, market power shifts to device/content/application providers, and broadband wireless networks become a utility.  This is a world in which the carriers must migrate to a new profit model or see their margins erode.  However, the "Killer Bees" future scenario is plausible. This is a world  where society moves back to controlled, closed networks with the carriers being the primary gateway to manage users, content, applications and ensure the integrity and security of the network.  Killer Bees results in a balkanized 4G world versus a truly ubiquitous broadband cloud.  The main takeaway, as suspected, is that no one has the answer yet and we must continue to monitor the market  and consumers to see what future may be emerging, so as to create adaptive strategies. In the following scenarios, a driving force is ‘technology disruption’ as a persistent force over time and social trust in networks is an unknown tipping point toward one of these possible futures. The first scenario is Nature Aligns, in which a wholesale transformation occurs in the wireless ecosystem. Humans are nodes in a vast and rich network, and enormous opportunities exist for value creation around new applications. The second scenario is Killer Bees, in which the world fractures along technology and standards. Economic boundaries and wireless networks, devices, and applications present as many threats, such as global wireless epidemics, as opportunities to business and society as a whole. [The following is an excerpt from the book:]   Scenario 1) Nature Aligns.  In this future, advances in wireless are creating enormous value all around us, with innovation led by mobile virtual network, with innovations led by mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), device manufacturers, and artificial intelligence software vendors. Self-organizing networks with end-to-end quality of service (QoS) are the norm. The digital divide has been effectively erased as broadband wireless is a universal right in developed areas, much like other utilities. Public WiFi has become an important social program for economic development. It has been coupled with the $100 computer and $ 20 smartphones to drive significant economic development in the Third World Wireless provides other social benefits beyond just voice and data, including disease and disastertracking, weather prediction, and security/terror early-earning systems. Body-area networks (BANs), where technology is integrated with a user's clothing or is implanted in their body, monitor vital signs and distribute drugs within the body. The wireless immersion experience is widely available to those who want it, causing large organizations to flatten further.  The "gift economy" dominates as users behave in a way that contributes to the common good. Those who fail to conform to the unwritten rules are policed by the masses. The "wisdom of crowds" is viewed as more powerful than any individual wireless user.  The follow describe the outcomes of each of the key variables in this scenario: Network Trust - In this world, defenses stay well ahead of threats for wireless cyber-security. More importantly, users self-police the environment for potentially threatening behavior, much like the volunteers patrolling the Internet for al-Qaeda activity or the Neighborhood Watch concept today. As a result, typical users feel very comfortable sharing detailed profile information, including financial and medical records, via wireles updated via software in the user's mobile device. User location information is leveraged by all industries to enhance the benefit delivered to consumers. Companies understand the need to protect this information, and they take appropriate measures to do so. Users can jump onto virtually any network, from peer-to-peer networks and wireless local area networks (LANs) to advanced mobile networks, via their smart devices.  They feel comfortable that universal security standards and built-in protection on their devices will ensure secure communications and transactions. Overall trust in wireless networks is extremely high, although occasional incidents occur in which mobile phones are compromised, they are localized and quickly remedied via technology and policy upgrades, which are automatically. Technology Breakthroughs - Technology has continued to advance at a torrid pace across all parts of the wireless value chain, including networks, devices, and applications.  In particular, advances in the human interface have enabled the mobile device to provide a rich, immersive multimedia experience. Retinal projection (projecting a much larger, high-definition display in space),  coupled with flawless speech processing, has virtual eliminated the need for clunky keystrokes and has increased the amount of "bandwidth to the brain." Devices have taken on a full range of cognitive capabilities: such as sensing the user's environment and situation, including weather, movement, location, biometrics, and activities; finding and accessing available network resources, including available frequencies, bandwidth, and applications via network crawlers and smart agents; making decisions about where, how, and when the user will want to access different applications, depending on her situation or "presence".   These devices are widely available to all types of users at reasonable price points. Differences are driven primarily by style choices.  Successful device manufacturers lead the pack in transforming the user interface and also manage to integrate value-added services with the handset to give the user full decision support. In some cases, these intelligent devices begin to push into the realm of "singularity," where machines achieve cognitive capabilities equivalent to those of humans. In Nature Aligns, these developments are all viewed as possible steps toward a more fulfilling life for mobile netizens.  Wireless broadband has become highly reliable and ubiquitous as standards have driven toward complete interoperability among LANs and wide area networks (WANs) of all types. This includes mesh networks, where users themselves become nodes within the network to relay communications via the most efficient route. This forces network providers to choose between a low-cost volume model and moving into subscription and pay-per-use applications. Some networks become dedicated to machine-to-machine communications, such as sensor networks, and others service users and stand-along devices.  (Scenario continues with sections on: "Technology Breakthroughs and Wireless Market Growth" "Strength of Economny" "Killer Applications" "Standards Alignment"  "Low End Disruption," "Wireless Social Networks," Seamless Mobility," " Embedded Sensors," "Gen Z Dominance," "Distributed Authority," "Cognitive Devices," Privacy/Security Concerns," "Health and Environmental Concerns," "A Consumer Day in the Life" "An Executive Day in the Life.") Scenario 2) Killer Bees.   In this future, technology breakthroughs have a dark side. Mobile viruses spread through open wireless networks like a pandemic, infecting mobile devices throughout many part of the developed world.  User privacy is threatened constantly because mobile hijackers abound, taking advantage of the many network paths to access a user's device. This leads to "gated communities" in the wireless world to protect users as strong brands become the trusted brokers of transactions. Terrorists frequently use mobile-devices to organize large-scale attacks.  Biochips are even used to design pathogens such as a synthetic version of avian flu.  Key wireless standards fracture along regional lines, and 4G wireless intellectual property becomes a veritable arms race among companies and countries. Wireless commerce struggles to meet the enormous market expectations once postulated by analysts. Secure broadband wireless is relegated to the rich as public WIFI projects become cesspools of illegal activities, leaving black eyes on cities and municipalities that once saw these projects as a path to economic growth. Artificial intelligence (AI) cannot deliver on the "device-centric" promise. Instead, the overwhelming technology numbs our ability to innovate.  The following sections describe the outcomes of each of the key variables in the Killer bee scenario.  Network Trust -  In the world of Killer Bees, technology, standards, and policy solutions have been unable to keep up with the increasing sophistication of wireless cyber-criminals and their tactics.  The bad guys now see wireless networks, given their inherent connectedness, as the most effective medium for spreading malicious programs and faining access to sensitive user information. This includes the biological spread of wireless worms, infecting and taking over devices to support large-scale attacks on protected networks (government, financial, healthcare, utilities). Governments and standards bodies are unable to align on common defense mechanisms, leaving organizations and network providers to invest in their own unique protection approach. This creates great disparities among secure and unsecure wireless networks, resulting in a "pay for protection" model for operators and their customers. Technology Breakthroughs - While there have been pockets of progress in wireless technology and networking, there has been little progress in integrating these developments into real operations benefits for users and organizations. Improvements have been made in smart devices, wireless broadband speeds and coverage, and sensing networks. But interoperability has suffered from a lack of cooperation among standards groups, governments, and technology providers, keeping many breakthroughs from having a significant market impact. Many technology advancements that do happen are "off-the-market" inventions from subversive players seeking to undermine the establishment. This includes fourth-generation phreaking, in which existing smart phones are stripped and reprogrammed to increase performance, crack networks, and pirate wireless bandwidth and applications.  Also, an array of custom gadgets are designed for clandestine and military applications where ad hoc wireless networks are used to support specific missions.  For instance, low-cost dragonflysize flying sensors are available to support everything from reconnissance on drug smugglers to high-end personal security monitoring. The black market for wireless innovations is thriving. But in the consumer and business markets, wireless technology is not a bright spot, because true innovation fails to scale to the masses.  Innovative apps and services stay confined to local markets and closed user communities.  [Scenario continues with sections on: "Technology Breakthroughs and Wireless Market Growth" "Strength of Economy" "Killer Applications" "Standards Alignment"  "Low End Disruption," "Wireless Social Networks," Seamless Mobility," " Embedded Sensors," "Gen Z Dominance," "Distributed Authority," "Cognitive Devices," Privacy/Security Concerns," "Health and Environmental Concerns,"  and scenarios on:"A Consumer Day in the Life" and "An Executive Day in the Life.")
The Future of Enterprise Architecture.  Jeff Scott, senior analyst with Forrester Research. May 2010/www. forresterresearch.com/The Future of EA. Enterprise Architecture is the most important IT asset of any business in a world of ecommerce and globalizaiton.  This is the case whether the business is small, medium, or global.   The author asks, “What is the future of enterprise architecture?”   With creative thinking, he believes it is possible to integrate trends and envision alternative futures of this very important IT support system.  The following are five scenarios looking to the 20 to 30 year future.  Scenario 1) Enterprise Architecture Disappears as a Unique Function. I think this scenario is inevitable in the long run (20 to 30 years) as we move to purchased applications (“there’s an app for that”) and Moore’s law continues to drive down the cost of hardware to the point where  performance/capacity/reliability/etc. issues all but disappear. But in the near term (let’s call it 10 years) I think this is a highly unlikely outcome. Because, even though EAs struggle to demonstrate value, the promise of EA value among CIOs remains strong.  Scenario 2) As Enterprise Architecture becomes more Business and Enterprise in Focus, it moves “in total” to the Business. This seems to me to be the least likely of all the possible outcomes for EA. Business architecture (BA) might move to the business (see scenario 5) but I can’t imagine the technology side of EA moving into the business as long as there is an IT organization. First of all no sane CIO would support the move. But more importantly, who in the business would have a better perspective of what (technology based) EA needs to be than the CIO? Some architects seem to believe that putting EA in the business would give them magical powers of influence - but it won’t. Business goals and incentives are the main drivers and they will remain the same.  Scenario 3) Enterprise Architecture Remains in IT, Largely Focused on Technology Architecture. This seems to be the most likely outcome for small to medium sized IT organizations. In this option business architecture will be developed primarily as input into the technical architecture. The key to success here will be for EAs to evolve from technology planners to true IT strategists.  Scenario 4: Enterprise Architecture Remains in IT but Becomes More Business Focused. This model will be prevalent in medium to large IT organizations where IT has developed a strong partnership with the business. Here, EAs will be welcome at the business planning table and will be well regarded by business and IT for their ability to match business needs with IT capabilities. The business architecture focus here will be business-IT alignment. EA’s resources will be about evenly split between BA and technology initiatives. Successful architects will be very business savvy but keep their technology roots. Scenario 5) Enterprise Architecture Splits into Multiple Groups. This is the most likely 10-year outlook for most large IT organizations. EA will split into three distinct and separate groups: infrastructure, applications and information, and business. Here’s why. Infrastructure is rapidly closing in on the utility model. The cloud movement will force existing I&O managers to create a more “cloud-like” approach. Instant and configurable provisioning will become the norm. Application developers will no longer need to be concerned with the infrastructure architecture. It just works. Infrastructure EAs will move into I&O and become even more technologically focused.  As business architecture gains momentum, business leaders will take notice and seek to move or replicate the BA function in the business. Many BAs will jump at the chance to move and encourage this model – with or without the CIO’s blessing. Look for business schools to add business architecture to their curriculums. When that happens, business architecture’s move into the business will accelerate rapidly. Being squeezed from the top and bottom, traditional EAs will focus more on applications and information. As SaaS and purchased applications become the dominant solutions delivery model, EAs' focus on information will increase.

 

Future of Batteries: More Manufacturers Join the New Battery Standard by the Year 2030.  Future News for Year 2020 and Beyond. Pontus Edinburg/2010/www.newsoffuture.com.  In the future, battery life will be extended for much longer periods of time.   Today’s technology allows the electrons in small capacitors to be released slowly and gradually in a manner similar to the way a battery releases electrons.  It thus makes it practical to store and release electrons.  “In the future, tectrical storage technology and nanotechnology are on merging paths so that carbon nanotubes (CN), which are cylinders of carbon atoms  will serve as tiny wires due to a property called “electron tunneling,” which lets them drove electrical signals at scales where ordinary current flow is impossible.” Carbon nanotubes can also store electrical energy. NEC and Sony are jointly developing a laptop battery that draws on the ability of carbon nanotubes to store energy. The companies claim that the battery will last weeks between charges. Mitsubishi and Motorola are also pursuing CN-based batteries, which offer the potential of assuming any shape or even being embedded in a device's plastic casing.  “Because of important implications in waste reduction, the California Integrated Waste Management Board will keep abreast of developments in batteries and other means of electrical storage.”  The implication for extended battery use will begin to meet market demand for development of rechargeable batteries, for mobile devices has increased over the last years and will continue to drive it further, most likely to the point that they even become efficient enough for home products and appliances.  Will it be possible to save energy in the manufacturing to produce rechargeable batteries even for home products? Will people prefer to have their equipment run on fuel cell batteries that need to be refilled? [The following is an excerpt from the article:]   Scenario) “More Manufacturers Join the New Battery Standard” New York Times,  November 21, 2030.  More manufacturers of electronic equipment are now joining the battery standard, based on the new generation of rechargeable batteries that can keep your TV run for 40 hours without recharging. They will soon be able to run basically all equipment at your home, the computer, toaster, lamps, vacuum cleaner, and they are even considered for washing machines.  The development of rechargeable batteries took off with the mobile devices 30 years ago. A common problem was the short time that you could use your portable computer before recharging. People have talked about fuel cells to run your home equipment but tests that were made didn't show an interest from the market to constantly refill the batteries.  When these products hit the market, the only electric cord that you will have at home will eventually be the one to the battery recharger. You will always have one battery in the recharger and whenever one of your devices tells you that they are short, you switch. The size of the battery will be like your credit card but one-third inch thick. A battery will come with every new device you buy, and if you want some extra, they will be about US$ 59 a piece.  You don't have to feel stressed to run out and buy new equipment; there is no risk that they will cut the electricity to your house, and if you are a cord freak you will find plenty of devices on the market for a long time.

 

Future of the Internet III.  Janna Quitney Anderson, Elon University and Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet & American Life Project. Dec. 2008.  Some 578 leading Internet activists, builders, and commentators responded to an international survey to rate scenarios about the effect of the Internet on social, political, and economic life in the year 2020. An additional 618 stakeholders also participated in the study, for a total of 1,196 participants who shared their views. This report presents the views of respondents in two ways. First,  the authors cite the aggregate views of those who responded to the survey. Second,  this report provides a number of comments that convey opinions and predictions with insights  that are concluded in a summary of findings:  1) The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020. 2)  The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness. 3)  Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the Internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020. 4) Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain in a continuing “arms race,” with the “crackers” who will find ways to copy and share content without payment. 5)  The divisions between personal time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who’s connected, and the results will be mixed in terms of social relations. 6)  “Next-generation” engineering of the network to improve the current Internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild the architecture from scratch.  These scenarios were used in the survey, with survey percentages  from among the 578 experts that  “mostly agree” on the likelihood that the scenario will play out.  Scenario 1) The Mobile Phone is the Primary Connection Tool for Most People in the World. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives to bring networked digital communications to everyone are successful on many levels, the mobile phone—now with significant computing power—is the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price. Telephony is offered under a set of universal standards and protocols accepted by most operators internationally, making for reasonably effortless movement from one part of the world to another. At this point, the "bottom" three-quarters of the world's population account for at least 50% of all people with Internet access—up from 30% in 2005. (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 77%)  Scenario 2) Social Tolerance has Advanced Significantly Due in Great Part to the Internet.   In 2020, people are more tolerant than they are today, thanks to wider exposure to others and their views that has been brought about by the Internet and other information and communication technologies. The greater tolerance shows up in several metrics, including declining levels of violence, lower levels of sectarian strife, and reduced incidence of overt acts of bigotry and hate crimes. (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 32%)   Scenario 3)  Content Control Through Copyright-Protection Technology Dominates. In 2020, strict content controls are in place thanks to the efforts of legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies. Those who use copyrighted materials are automatically billed by content owners, and Internet service providers automatically notify authorities when they identify clients who try to subvert this system. Protestors rarely prevail when they make claims that this interferes with free speech and stifles innovation. (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 31%)    Scenario 4) Transparency Heightens Individual Integrity and Forgiveness. In 2020, people are even more open to sharing personal information, opinions, and emotions than they are now. The public’s notion of privacy has changed. People are generally comfortable exchanging the benefits of anonymity for the benefits they perceive in the data being shared by other people and organizations. As people’s lives have become more transparent, they have become more responsible for their own actions and more forgiving of the sometimes-unethical pasts of others. Being “outed” for some past indiscretion in a YouTube video or other pervasive-media form no longer does as much damage as it did back in the first decade of the 21st Century. Carefully investigated reputation corrections and clarifications are a popular daily feature of major media outlets’ online sites. (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 45%)  Scenario 5)  Many Lives are Touched by the use of Augmented Reality or Spent Interacting in Artificial Spaces. In 2020, virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality are popular network formats, thanks to the rapid evolution of natural, intuitive technology interfaces and personalized information overlays. To be fully connected, advanced organizations and individuals must have a presence in the “metaverse” and/or the “geoWeb.” Most well-equipped Internet users will spend some part of their waking hours—at work and at play—at least partially linked to augmentations of the real world or alternate worlds. This lifestyle involves seamless transitions between artificial reality, virtual reality, and the status formerly known as “real life.” (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 55%)  Scenario 6) Talk and Touch are Common Technology Interfaces. People have adjusted to hearing individuals dictating information in public to their computing devices. In addition “haptic” technologies based on touch feedback have been fully developed, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allows you to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surface for those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to your networked computer. It is common to see people “air-typing” as they interface with the projection of a networked keyboard visible only to them. (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 64%)  Scenario 7)  Next-Generation Research will be Used to Improve the Current Internet; It Won’t Replace It. In 2020, the original Internet architecture is in the continuing process of refinement – it hasn’t been replaced by a completely new system. Research into network innovation, with help from the continued acceleration of technologies used to build, maintain, enhance, and enlarge the system, has yielded many improvements. Search, security, and reliability on the Internet are easier and more refined, but those who want to commit crimes and mischief are still able to cause trouble . . (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 78%)  Scenario 8)  Few Lines Divide Professional Time From Personal Time, and That’s OK. In 2020, well-connected knowledge workers in more-developed nations have willingly eliminated the industrial-age boundaries between work hours and personal time. Outside of formally scheduled activities, work and play are seamlessly integrated in most of these workers’ lives. This is a net-positive for people. They blend personal/professional duties wherever they happen to be when they are called upon to perform them—from their homes, the gym, the mall, a library, and possibly even their company’s communal meeting space, which may exist in a new virtual-reality format.  (Of 578 experts - mostly agree 56%).
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development.  Rockerfeller Foundation and Global Business Network.  May 2010/PDF/54pps/www.rockerfellerfoundation.org.  These scenarios explore how technology will help shape life in developing countries. This report builds on the Rockefeller Foundation’s growing body of work in the emerging field of pro-poor foresight. In 2009, the Institute for Alternative Futures published the report Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, with support from the Rockefeller Foundation. That effort was a reflection of the Foundation’s strong commitment to exploring innovative processes and embracing new pathways for insight aimed at helping the world’s poor. With this report, the Foundation takes a further step in advancing the field of pro-poor foresight, this time through the lens of scenario planning.  This was a year-long effort designed to explore the role of technology in international development.   [The following is an excerpt from the report:] Scenario 1) Lockstep - A world of tighter top-down government control and more authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback.   In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s H1N1, this new influenza strain — originating from wild geese — was extremely virulent and deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared nations were quickly overwhelmed when the virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly 20 percent of the global population and killing 8 million in just seven months, the majority of them healthy young adults. The pandemic also had a deadly effect on economies: international mobility of both people and goods screeched to a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and breaking global supply chains. Even locally, normally bustling shops and office buildings sat empty for months, devoid of both employees and customers. The pandemic blanketed the planet — though disproportionate numbers died in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America, where the virus spread like wildfire in the absence of official containment protocols. But even in developed countries, containment was a challenge. The United States’s initial policy of “strongly discouraging” citizens from flying proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the spread of the virus not just within the U.S. but across borders. However, a few countries did fare better — China in particular. The Chinese government’s quick imposition and enforcement of mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as well as its instant and near-hermetic sealing off of all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping the spread of the virus far earlier than in other countries and enabling a swifter post-pandemic recovery. China’s government was not the only one that took extreme measures to protect its citizens from risk and exposure. -- During the pandemic, national leaders around the world flexed their authority and imposed airtight rules and restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face masks to body-temperature checks at the entries to communal spaces like train stations and supermarkets. Even after the pandemic faded, this more authoritarian control and oversight of citizens and their activities stuck and even intensified. In order to protect themselves from the spread of increasingly global problems — from pandemics and transnational terrorism to environmental crises and rising poverty — leaders around the world took a firmer grip on power. At first, the notion of a more controlled world gained wide acceptance and approval. Citizens willingly gave up some of their sovereignty — and their privacy — to more paternalistic states in exchange for greater safety and stability. Citizens were more tolerant, and even eager, for top-down direction and oversight, and national leaders had more latitude to impose order in the ways they saw fit. In developed countries, this heightened oversight took many forms: biometric IDs for all citizens, for example, and tighter regulation of key industries whose stability was deemed vital to national interests. In many developed countries, enforced cooperation with a suite of new regulations and agreements slowly but steadily restored both order and, importantly, economic growth. --  Across the developing world, however, the story was different — and much more variable. Top-down authority took different forms in different countries, hinging largely on the capacity, caliber, and intentions of their leaders. In countries with strong and thoughtful leaders, citizens’ overall economic status and quality of life increased. In India, for example, air quality drastically improved after 2016, when the government outlawed high-emitting vehicles. In Ghana, the introduction of ambitious government programs to improve basic infrastructure and ensure the availability of clean water for all her people led to a sharp decline in water-borne diseases. But more authoritarian leadership worked less well — and in some cases tragically — in countries run by irresponsible elites who used their increased power to pursue their own interests at the expense of their citizens.  There were other downsides, as the rise of virulent nationalism created new hazards: spectators at the 2018 World Cup, for example, wore bulletproof vests that sported a patch of their national flag. Strong technology regulations stifled innovation, kept costs high, and curbed adoption. In the developing world, access to “approved” technologies increased but beyond that remained limited: the locus of technology innovation was largely in the developed world, leaving many developing countries on the receiving end of technologies that others consider “best” for them. – Some governments found this patronizing and refused to distribute computers and other technologies that they scoffed at as “second hand.” Meanwhile, developing countries with more resources and better capacity began to innovate internally to fill these gaps on their own. Meanwhile, in the developed world, the presence of so many top-down rules and norms greatly inhibited entrepreneurial activity. Scientists and innovators were often told by governments what research lines to pursue and were guided mostly toward projects that would make money (e.g., market-driven product development) or were “sure bets” (e.g., fundamental research), leaving more risky or innovative research areas largely untapped. Well-off countries and monopolistic companies with big research and development budgets still made significant advances, but the IP behind their breakthroughs remained locked behind strict national or corporate protection. Russia and India imposed stringent domestic standards for supervising and certifying encryption-related products and their suppliers — a category that in reality meant all IT innovations. The U.S. and EU struck back with retaliatory national standards, throwing a wrench in the development and diffusion of technology globally. Especially in the developing world, acting in one’s national self-interest often meant seeking practical alliances that fit with those interests — whether it was gaining access to needed resources or banding together in order to achieve economic growth. In South America and Africa, regional and sub-regional alliances became more structured. Kenya doubled its trade with southern and eastern Africa, as new partnerships grew within the continent. China’s investment in Africa expanded as the bargain of new jobs and infrastructure in exchange for access to key minerals or food exports proved agreeable to many governments. Cross-border ties proliferated in the form of official security aid. While the deployment of foreign security teams was welcomed in some of the most dire failed states, one-size-fits-all solutions yielded few positive results. --  By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of so much top-down control and letting leaders and authorities make choices for them. Wherever national interests clashed with individual interests, there was conflict. Sporadic pushback became increasingly organized and coordinated, as disaffected youth and people who had seen their status and opportunities slip away — largely in developing countries — incited civil unrest. In 2026, protestors in Nigeria brought down the government, fed up with the entrenched cronyism and corruption. Even those who liked the greater stability and predictability of this world began to grow uncomfortable and constrained by so many tight rules and by the strictness of national boundaries. The feeling lingered that sooner or later, something would inevitably upset the neat order that the world’s governments had worked so hard to establish.  Scenario 2) Clever Together - A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues.  The recession of 2008-10 did not turn into the decades-long global economic slide that many had feared. In fact, quite the opposite: strong global growth returned in force, with the world headed once again toward the demographic and economic projections forecasted before the downturn. India and China were on track to see their middle classes explode to 1 billion by 2020. Mega-cities like Sao Paulo and Jakarta expanded at a blistering pace as millions poured in from rural areas. Countries raced to industrialize by whatever means necessary; the global marketplace bustled.  But two big problems loomed. First, not all people and places benefited equally from this return to globalized growth: all boats were rising, but some were clearly rising more. Second, those hell-bent on development scenarios and expansion largely ignored the very real environmental consequences of their unrestricted growth. Undeniably, the planet’s climate was becoming increasingly unstable. Sea levels were rising fast, even as countries continued to build-out coastal mega-cities. --  In 2014, the Hudson River overflowed into New York City during a storm surge, turning the World Trade Center site into a three-foot-deep lake. The image of motorboats navigating through lower Manhattan jarred the world’s most powerful nations into realizing that climate change was not just a developing-world problem. That same year, new measurements showing that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were climbing precipitously created new urgency and pressure for governments (really, for everyone) to do something fast. In such an interconnected world, where the behaviors of one country, company, or individual had potentially high-impact effects on all others, piecemeal attempts by one nation here, one small collective of environmental organizations there, would not be enough to stave off a climate disaster — or, for that matter, to effectively address a host of other planetary-scale problems. But highly coordinated worldwide strategies for addressing such urgent issues just might. What was needed was systems thinking — and systems acting — on a global scale. --  International coordination started slowly, then accelerated faster than anyone had imagined. In 2015, a critical mass of middle income and developed countries with strong economic growth publicly committed to leveraging their resources against global-scale problems, beginning with climate change. Together, their governments hashed out plans for monitoring and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the short term and improving the absorptive capacity of the natural environment over the long term. In 2017, an international agreement was reached on carbon sequestration (by then, most multinational corporations had a chief carbon officer) and intellectual and financial resources were pooled to build out carbon capture processes that would best support the global ecosystem. A functioning global cap and trade system was also established. Worldwide, the pressure to reduce waste and increase efficiency in planet-friendly ways was enormous. New globally coordinated systems for monitoring energy use capacity — including smart grids and bottom-up pattern recognition technologies — were rolled out. These efforts produced real results: by 2022, new projections showed a significant slowing in the rise of atmospheric carbon levels. Inspired by the success of this experiment in collective global action, large-scale coordinated initiatives intensified. Centralized global oversight and governance structures sprang up, not just for energy use but also for disease and technology standards. Such systems and structures required far greater levels of transparency, which in turn required more tech-enabled data collection, processing, and feedback. Enormous, benign “surveillance” systems allowed citizens to access data — all publically available — in real time and react. Nation-states lost some of their power and importance as global architecture strengthened and regional governance structures emerged. International oversight entities like the UN took on new levels of authority, as did regional systems like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The worldwide spirit of collaboration also fostered new alliances and alignments among corporations, NGOs, and communities. -- These strong alliances laid the groundwork for more global and participatory attempts to solve big problems and raise the standard of living of everyone. Coordinated efforts to tackle long-entrenched problems like hunger, disease, and access to basic needs took hold. New inexpensive technologies like better medical diagnostics and more effective vaccines improved healthcare delivery and health outcomes. Companies, NGOs, and governments — often acting together — launched pilot programs and learning labs to figure out how to best meet the needs of particular communities, increasing the knowledge base of what worked and what didn’t. Pharmaceuticals giants released thousands of drug compounds shown to be effective against diseases like malaria into the public domain as part of an “open innovation” agenda; they also opened their archives of R&D on neglected diseases deemed not commercially viable, offering seed funding to scientists who wanted to carry the research forward. There was a push for major innovations in energy and water for the developing world, as those areas were thought to be the key to improving equity. Better food distribution was also high on the agenda, and more open markets and south-south trade helped make this a reality. In 2022, a consortium of nations, NGOs, and companies established the Global Technology Assessment Office, providing easily accessible, real-time information about the costs and benefits of various technology applications to developing and developed countries alike. All of these efforts translated into real progress on real problems, opening up new opportunities to address the needs of the bottom billion — and enabling developing countries to become engines of growth in their own right. --  In many parts of the developing world, economic growth rates increased due to a host of factors. Improved infrastructure accelerated the greater mobility of both people and goods, and urban and rural areas got better connected. In Africa, growth that started on the coasts spread inward along new transportation corridors. Increased trade drove the specialization of individual firms and the overall diversification of economies. In many places, traditional social barriers to overcoming poverty grew less relevant as more people gained access to a spectrum of useful technologies — from disposable computers to do-it-yourself (DIY) windmills. Given the circumstances that forced these new heights of global cooperation and responsibility, it was no surprise that much of the growth in the developing world was achieved more cleanly and more “greenly.” In Africa, there was a big push for solar energy, as the physical geography and low population density of much of the continent enabled the proliferation of solar farms. The Desertec initiative to create massive thermal electricity plants to supply both North Africa and, via undersea cable lines, Southern Europe was a huge success. By 2025, a majority of electricity in the Maghreb was coming from solar, with exports of that power earning valuable foreign currency. The switch to solar created new “sun” jobs, drastically cut CO2 emissions, and earned governments billions annually. India exploited its geography to create similar “solar valleys” while decentralized solar-powered drip irrigation systems became popular in sub-Saharan Africa. Reduced energy dependency enabled all of these countries and regions to better control and manage their own resources. In Africa, political architecture above the nation-state level, like the African Union, strengthened and contributed to a “good governance” drive. Regional integration through COMESA (the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) and other institutions allowed member nations to better organize to meet their collective needs as consumers and increasingly as producers. -- Over the course of two decades, enormous strides were made to make the world less wasteful, more efficient, and more inclusive. But the world was far from perfect. There were still failed states and places with few resources. Moreover, such rapid progress had created new problems. Rising consumption standards unexpectedly ushered in a new set of pressures: the improved food distribution system, for example, generated a food production crisis due to greater demand. Indeed, demand for everything was growing exponentially. By 2028, despite ongoing efforts to guide “smart growth,” it was becoming clear that the world could not support such rapid growth forever.   Scenario 3) Hack Attack -  An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge.  Devastating shocks like September 11, the Southeast Asian tsunami of 2004, and the 2010 Haiti earthquake had certainly primed the world for sudden disasters. But no one was prepared for a world in which large-scale catastrophes would occur with such breathtaking frequency. The years 2010 to 2020 were dubbed the “doom decade” for good reason: the 2012 Olympic bombing, which killed 13,000, was followed closely by an earthquake in Indonesia killing 40,000, a tsunami that almost wiped out Nicaragua, and the onset of the West China Famine, caused by a once-in-a-millennium drought linked to climate change.  -- Not surprisingly, this opening series of deadly asynchronous catastrophes (there were more) put enormous pressure on an already overstressed global economy that had entered the decade still in recession. Massive humanitarian relief efforts cost vast sums of money, but the primary sources — from aid agencies to developed-world governments — had run out of funds to offer. Most nation-states could no longer afford their locked-in costs, let alone respond to increased citizen demands for more security, more healthcare coverage, more social programs and services, and more infrastructure repair. In 2014, when mudslides in Lima buried thousands, only minimal help trickled in, prompting the Economist headline: “Is the Planet Finally Bankrupt?”  -- These dire circumstances forced tough tradeoffs. In 2015, the U.S. reallocated a large share of its defense spending to domestic concerns, pulling out of Afghanistan — where the resurgent Taliban seized power once again. In Europe, Asia, South America, and Africa, more and more nation-states lost control of their public finances, along with the capacity to help their citizens and retain stability and order. Resource scarcities and trade disputes, together with severe economic and climate stresses, pushed many alliances and partnerships to the breaking point; they also sparked proxy wars and low-level conflict in resource-rich parts of the developing world. Nations raised trade barriers in order to protect their domestic sectors against imports and — in the face of global food and resource shortages — to reduce exports of agricultural produce and other commodities. By 2016, the global coordination and interconnectedness that had marked the post-Berlin Wall world was tenuous at best. -- With government power weakened, order rapidly disintegrating, and safety nets evaporating, violence and crime grew more rampant. Countries with ethnic, religious, or class divisions saw especially sharp spikes in hostility: Naxalite separatists dramatically expanded their guerrilla campaign in East India; Israeli-Palestinian bloodshed escalated; and across Africa, fights over resources erupted along ethnic or tribal lines. Meanwhile, overtaxed militaries and police forces could do little to stop growing communities of criminals and terrorists from gaining power. Technology-enabled gangs and networked criminal enterprises exploited both the weakness of states and the desperation of individuals. With increasing ease, these “global guerillas” moved illicit products through underground channels from poor producer countries to markets in the developed world. Using retired 727s and other rogue aircraft, they crisscrossed the Atlantic, from South America to Africa, transporting cocaine, weapons, and operatives. Drug and gun money became a common recruiting tool for the desperately poor.  -- Criminal networks also grew highly skilled at counterfeiting licit goods through reverse engineering. Many of these “rip-offs” and copycats were of poor quality or downright dangerous. In the context of weak health systems, corruption, and inattention to standards — either within countries or from global bodies like the World Health Organization — tainted vaccines entered the public health systems of several African countries. In 2021, 600 children in Cote d’Ivoire died from a bogus Hepatitis B vaccine, which paled in comparison to the scandal sparked by mass deaths from a tainted anti-malarial drug years later. The deaths and resulting scandals sharply affected public confidence in vaccine delivery; parents not just in Africa but elsewhere began to avoid vaccinating their children, and it wasn’t long before infant and child mortality rates rose to levels not seen since the 1970s.  Technology hackers were also hard at work. Internet scams and pyramid schemes plagued inboxes. Meanwhile, more sophisticated hackers attempted to take down corporations, government systems, and banks via phishing scams and database information heists, and their many successes generated billions of dollars in losses. Desperate to protect themselves and their intellectual property, the few multinationals still thriving enacted strong, increasingly complex defensive measures. Patent applications skyrocketed and patent thickets proliferated, as companies fought to claim and control even the tiniest innovations. Security measures and screenings tightened.  This “wild west” environment had a profound impact on innovation. The threat of being hacked and the presence of so many thefts and fakes lowered the incentives to create “me first” rather than “me too” technologies. And so many patent thickets made the cross-pollination of ideas and research difficult at best. Blockbuster pharmaceuticals quickly became artifacts of the past, replaced by increased production of generics. Breakthrough innovations still happened in various industries, but they were focused more on technologies that could not be easily replicated or re-engineered. And once created, they were vigorously guarded by their inventors — or even by their nations. In 2022, a biofuel breakthrough in Brazil was protected as a national treasure and used as a bargaining chip in trade with other countries.  -- Verifying the authenticity of anything was increasingly difficult. The heroic efforts of several companies and NGOs to create recognized seals of safety and approval proved ineffective when even those seals were hacked. The positive effects of the mobile and internet revolutions were tempered by their increasing fragility as scamming and viruses proliferated, preventing these networks from achieving the reliability required to become the backbone of developing economies — or a source of trustworthy information for anybody. Interestingly, not all of the “hacking” was bad. Genetically modified crops (GMOs) and do-it-yourself (DIY) biotech became backyard and garage activities, producing important advances. In 2017, a network of renegade African scientists who had returned to their home countries after working in Western multinationals unveiled the first of a range of new GMOs that boosted agricultural productivity on the continent. But despite such efforts, the global have/have-not gap grew wider than ever. The very rich still had the financial means to protect themselves; gated communities sprung up from New York to Lagos, providing safe havens surrounded by slums. In 2025, it was de rigueur to build not a house but a high-walled fortress, guarded by armed personnel. The wealthy also capitalized on the loose regulatory environment to experiment with advanced medical treatments and other under-the-radar activities. Those who couldn’t buy their way out of chaos — which was most people — retreated to whatever “safety” they could find. With opportunity frozen and global mobility at a near standstill — no place wanted more people, especially more poor people — it was often a retreat to the familiar: family ties, religious beliefs, or even national allegiance. Trust was afforded to those who guaranteed safety and survival — whether it was a warlord, an evangelical preacher, or a mother. In some places, the collapse of state capacity led to a resurgence of feudalism. In other areas, people managed to create more resilient communities operating as isolated micro versions of formerly large-scale systems. The weakening of national governments also enabled grassroots movements to form and grow, creating rays of hope amid the bleakness. By 2030, the distinction between “developed” and “developing” nations no longer seemed particularly descriptive or relevant.   Scenario 4) Smart Scramble -  An economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems. The global recession that started in 2008 did not trail off in 2010 but dragged onward. Vigorous attempts to jumpstart markets and economies didn’t work, or at least not fast enough to reverse the steady downward pull. The combined private and public debt burden hanging over the developed world continued to depress economic activity, both there and in developing countries with economies dependent on exporting to (formerly) rich markets. Without the ability to boost economic activity, many countries saw their debts deepen and civil unrest and crime rates climb. The United States, too, lost much of its presence and credibility on the international stage due to deepening debt, debilitated markets, and a distracted government. This, in turn, led to the fracturing or decoupling of many  international collaborations started by or reliant on the U.S.’s continued strength.  Also in trouble was China, where social stability grew more precarious. Depressed economic activity, combined with the ecological consequences of China’s rapid growth, started to take their toll, causing the shaky balance that had held since 1989 to finally break down. With their focus trained on managing the serious political and economic instability at home, the Chinese sharply curtailed their investments in Africa and other parts of the developing world. Indeed, nearly all foreign investment in Africa — as well as formal, institutional flows of aid and other support for the poorest countries — was cut back except in the gravest humanitarian emergencies.  Overall, economic stability felt so shaky that the occurrence of a sudden climate shock or other disaster would likely send the world into a tailspin. Luckily, those big shocks didn’t occur, though there was a lingering concern that they could in the future. -- Not that anyone had time to think about the future — present challenges were too pressing. In the developed world, unemployment rates skyrocketed. So did xenophobia, as companies and industries gave the few available jobs to native-born citizens, shunning foreign-born applicants. Great numbers of immigrants who had resettled in the developed world suddenly found that the economic opportunities that had drawn them were now paltry at best. By 2018, London had been drained of immigrants, as they headed back to their home countries, taking their education and skills with them. Reverse migration left holes in the communities of departure — both socially and literally — as stores formerly owned by immigrants stood empty. -- And their homelands needed them. Across the developing world and especially in Africa, economic survival was now firmly in local hands. With little help or aid coming through “official” and organized channels — and in the absence of strong trade and foreign currency earnings — most people and communities had no choice but to help themselves and, increasingly, one another. Yet “survival” and “success” varied greatly by location — not just by country, but by city and by community. Communities inside failed states suffered the most, their poor growing still poorer. In many places, the failures of political leadership and the stresses of economic weakness and social conflict stifled the ability of people to rise above their dire circumstances.  -- Not surprisingly, across much of the developing world the rural-urban divide gaped wider, as more limited availability and access to resources like IT and trade made survival and self-sufficiency much more challenging for non-urban dwellers. Communications and interactions that formerly served to bridge one family or one village or one student with their counterparts in other places — from emailing to phone calls to web postings — became less reliable. Internet access had not progressed far beyond its 2010 status, in part because the investment dollars needed to build out the necessary infrastructure simply weren’t there. When cellphone towers or fiber optic cables broke down, repairs were often delayed by months or even years. As a result, only people in certain geographies had access to the latest communication and internet gadgets, while others became more isolated for lack of such connections.  -- But there were silver linings. Government capacity improved in more advanced parts of the developing world where economies had already begun to generate a self-sustaining dynamic before the 2008-2010 crisis, such as Indonesia, Rwanda, Turkey, and Vietnam. Areas with good access to natural resources, diverse skill sets, and a stronger set of overlapping institutions did far better than others; so did cities and communities where large numbers of “returnees” helped drive change and improvement. Most innovation in these better-off places involved modifying existing devices and technologies to be more adaptive to a specific context. But people also found or invented new ways — technological and non-technological — to improve their capacity to survive and, in some cases, to raise their overall living standards. In Accra, a returning Ghanaian MIT professor, working with resettled pharma researchers, helped invent a cheap edible vaccine against tuberculosis that dramatically reduced childhood mortality across the continent. In Nairobi, returnees launched a local “vocational education for all” project that proved wildly successful and was soon replicated in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. -- Makeshift, “good enough” technology solutions — addressing everything from water purification and harnessing energy to improved crop yield and disease control — emerged to fill the gaps. Communities grew tighter. Micro-manufacturing, communal gardens, and patchwork energy grids were created at the local level for local purposes. Many communities took on the aura of co-ops, some even launching currencies designed to boost local trade and bring communities closer together. Nowhere was this more true than in India, where localized experiments proliferated, and succeeded or failed, with little connection to or impact on other parts of the country — or the world. -- These developments were encouraging, but also frustrating. In the absence of enduring trade and FDI channels, local experiments and innovations could neither scale nor boost overall growth. For those looking, it was difficult to find or access creative solutions. Scaling was further inhibited by the lack of compatible technology standards, making innovations difficult to replicate. Apps developed in rural China simply didn’t work in urban India. High-speed internet access — which gradually emerged in some areas despite weak government or philanthropic support — did help, enabling students in isolated pockets in the developing world to access knowledge and instruction through the written word and other media like video. But the development of tangible devices, products, and innovations continued to lag in places where local manufacturing skills and capacities had not yet scaled. More complex engineering solutions proved even more difficult to develop and diffuse. By 2025, collaboration was finally improving, with ecosystems of research and sharing — many of them “virtual” — beginning to emerge. Yet without major progress in global economic integration and collaboration, many worried that good ideas would stay isolated, and survival and success would remain a local — not a global or national — phenomenon.

 

Three Biotechnology-Related Scenarios for Gauteng, South Africa. Cooperation Framework on Innovation Systems. Pub. April, 2009.   From October 2008 to March 2009 the Cooperation Framework on Innovation Systems between Finland and South Africa (COFISA) undertook a Foresight exercise that focused on the biotechnology sector in Gauteng.  Situated in the heart of the Highveld, Gauteng is the smallest province in South Africa that has only 1.4% of the land area, but is highly urbanised with a population of 8,837,178, the second-largest after KwaZulu-Natal. 2005 estimates, as put forward by the CSIR Gauteng Spatial Development Perspective suggest that Gauteng has overtaken KwaZulu Natal to become the most populous province in South Africa, with a total of 9.5 million people living there, growing at around 100,000 people every year. Gauteng is growing rapidly due to mass urbanisation that is a feature of many developing countries. It will be a polycentric urban region with a projected population of some 14.6 million people by 2015, making it one of the largest cities in the world. This rapid growth has brought with it both opportunities and challenges. As a global focal point, with access to the Southern African hinterland, Gauteng has the ability to link the world to a population approximately the same size as the United States. It is fast becoming to sub-Saharan Africa what the Eastern Seaboard megalopolis is to America. This is an area where the future of biotechnology will thrive. [NOTE: The complete scenario narratives and analysis are available through the MP.] Scenario 1) Biotechnology in the Context of Knowledge- Aided Growth for Growth’s Sake.  The years 2009 to 2019:  The Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG) was very growth oriented. Their vision was to push for ever-increasing economic growth, as this growth (it was believed) served to undergird the growth of the whole country. It was also very good for Gauteng! While the poorer sections of Gauteng’s society were not forgotten, it was believed that they would benefit indirectly in the sense that all segments of the population, including those on the periphery, would benefit in the wake of surging growth. In 2009 the (new) national Government took the strategic decision that the key to a better future for all South Africans was the establishment and development of a knowledge society and enhancement of the private sector. A sophisticated strategy was developed and agreed to, which emphasised the role of technology and reengineering processes throughout the government sector. Biotechnology based services were modified and improved. Rapid testing was involved. The speed and quality of tests were dramatically improved. The universities responded to the changes in the biotechnology sector by becoming more relevant and applied in their R&D focus. With the success of the multinationals, a biotechnology cluster emerged to support the biotechnology manufacturing industry. A range of services was provided. In addition, companies began offering genetically personalized preventative and therapeutic services (including anti-aging) linked to packaged holidays. The growth resulted in a steady stream of immigrants to Gauteng which led to a  ballooning use of water, of which there was a limited supply. In 2016 Gauteng suffered a financial crisis.  Towards the end of the decade there were more and more complaints coming from spokespersons of the informal sector and the poorer areas of the province that the growth was in fact not benefitting them as had been the assumption. Yes, Gauteng’s per capita output had grown in leaps and bounds for six of the previous nine years, but even in the years of high growth the hard reality was that the gap between rich and poor had widened; there was even some evidence that poverty was worsening in some areas, and these trends showed no signs of abating. The years: 2021 to 2030: As the teens rolled into the twenties it became clear to everyone involved that the technology-led ‘knowledge society’ of the GPG had not delivered anywhere near what the expectations had been.  IT infrastructure deployed within the poorer  Knowledge Society projects were implemented.  The health care system was too expensive for the poor, who  began turning to traditional healers and medicine.  In the years leading up to 2030, the national efforts to harvest maximum amounts of traditional medicines led to a scarcity of certain traditional medicine crops that had been widely available in 2010 and even in 2020. However, the active ingredients in these plants were identified, and they are now being produced on a massive scale using biotechnology techniques. By 2030 the concept of “personalised medicine” was a reality. People were typed at birth and then treated throughout their lifetime to avoid triggers for the diseases for which they carried a genetic predisposition. Individuals who wanted to have this typing done, but who for economic reasons were not typed in their own countries at birth, were a constant market that flowed into Gauteng. There are now biosensors everywhere.  Prior to 2020, crops for medicinal use were cultivated on a much different scale and level than during the 2020s. With new technologies the crops were bred to be small in size but extremely high in nutritive value. Permanent water rationing, affecting 12 million people, was introduced in Gauteng in 2028. In 2029 the crisis reached a breaking point. Serious civil strife erupted.Water credits could be earned by developing and/or implementing waterless technologies such as waterless showers, waterless cleaning methods, waterless laundry etc. Microorganisms that “eat” dirt were used, with a minimum of water. Enzymes that operate in organic solvents became important.  Scenario 2) Biotechnology in the Context of Neoindustrial, Planned Growth.  The years: 2009 to 2019: The Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG) was very growth oriented, but they recognised the need for organic, balanced and equitable growth if it was to be sustainable and avoid social dysfunction. Their vision was to create a prosperous and equitable Gauteng through the execution of carefully-conceived development plans.  In Gauteng by 2030 fossil fuels would not be used for generating power and nuclear power would be the main source of energy. Furthermore, concerns regarding nuclear waste were overcome by the use of extremeophiles. This breakthrough came in 2019 following targeted sustainable construction, and that focussed on value addition to natural resources and the use of less damaging methods of production which led to the development of novel building materials. The first was biodegradable wood products for construction. These
products were manufactured by genetic engineering of indigenous forestry species that
had high cellulose content and accelerated growth cycles. Further developments focused research on the exploitation of microbes which naturally produce polymers to store carbon and energy yielded significant breakthroughs in the utilisation of bioadmixtures to add value to building materials.  The years: 2021 to 2030: In the years immediately prior to 2020 there had been a heightened awareness of the need for securing the nation’s food supply, due to increasingly-erratic and drier weather that had wreaked havoc with agricultural production.  The best way of overcoming this problem was to grow these crops in controlled environments in a soil-less system which could use other materials such as coconut fibres as a growing medium. An alternative was a system using water as the carrier of the nutrients to the plants, with no other growing medium. By 2030 all traditional food crops had been genetically modified. In 2029 the results of a five year survey of nutritional values of indigenous plants was published, and several
new food sources were identified. The shorter growth cycles, led to the establishment of a stronger agricultural market. Emerging farmers were supported to establish hydroponic, controlled environment “farms” in marginalised areas, and small entrepreneurs built compact, modern bioprocessing and packaging plants for food processing.  Within a short period the use of gene therapeutic products replaced the use of chemically synthesised drugs. This was a significant breakthrough, since the high incidence of malaria as a result of multidrug resistance to antimalarial pharmaceutical products was now something that could be controlled with the new treatment, resulting in fewer fatalities. Furthermore, the later increase in incidents of malaria due to rising temperatures in Southern Africa related to climate change could be combated more
effectively. Gauteng now has the opportunity of coming up with a long-term solution to its water supply needs, without the immediate crisis caused by a lack of water. This in itself is good news, but the wider implications are not as cheerful. The prospects of economic growth in the short term are bleak, and the experts say that fundamental changes are necessary to enable growth in the medium term. The dilemma is that there is no agreement as to what the changes should be.
Scenario 3) Knowledge-Enabled, Organic Growth.The years: 2009 to 2019: The Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG) was growth oriented, but not for its own sake. They sought mechanisms which would provide balanced long-term growth that would also be sustainable and avoid social dysfunction. Their vision was to create an equitable Gauteng without sacrificing (too much of) its prosperity. Many viewed the implementation of this vision as unfeasible and accused the GPG of being too idealistic, or dogmatic, or both. In 2009 the (new) national Government took the strategic decision that the key to a better future for all South Africans was the establishment and development of a knowledge society, at all levels in the country. Perhaps the most tangible indicator of the willingness and commitment to transform in the first few years was the variety of mechanisms used to ensure that as many stakeholders as possible became actively involved in the long-term, rather than being used in cosmetic participatory processes.
By 2019 it was becoming clear that the level of transformation being attempted by the GPG could not and would not be achieved anytime soon. The years: 2021 to 2030: There was a convergence of disciplines, e.g. bio-microfluidics, and the development of mobile manufacturing systems, which resulted in new opportunities, and accelerated the transition to smart manufacturing using smart technologies. Centres of excellence in advanced manufacturing were established, focused on enzyme-based manufacturing, diagnostics and cell reactors, and GMOs. The testing and deployment of GMO-type foods was dramatically speeded up. Additional resources were made available for research; considerable R&D was expended on single cell protein (SCP) as an alternative source of protein. Thus personalised health monitoring became more important, and this was supported by the development of new diagnostic and therapeutic products, usually based upon biotechnological innovations. Genetic profiling therefore became an accepted practice. Vaccines, in the form of DNA, RNA and protein, were used both prophylactically and therapeutically. Most commercially available foods in Gauteng were produced by plants, animals, algae or single cellular organisms which had been genetically modified to optimise their nutritional value. It became routine practice to establish the nutritional status of an individual, using biotechnology-based tools. On the basis of these results, scientifically formulated and validated nutraceuticals would be prescribed to correct any deficiencies. By the end of the twenties the success of the knowledge society strategy appeared to be assured. There was a proliferation of small businesses in the province (400% increase since 2010), most of whom were KIBS-oriented. Only three townships in the province were now classified as having more than 40% of their inhabitants below the poverty line.

 

Nano-Tomorrows. Glimpses Into Our Nano-Enabled Future.  Eight Scenarios on the Future of Nanotechnology, 2009.  Center for Responsible Nanotechnology – Dedicated to Forecasting Technology Development.   Among the growing literature on nanotechnology, this study stands out in quality because it highlights plausible scenarios utilizing the rigorous methodology of environmental scanning, research, collaboration, and scenario planning. This report takes a glimse into the possible future developments of nanotechnology and innovations in material science with Switzerland as a focal point, looking out to the year 2020.   Scenario 1) Secret Military Development.  “By 2018 PROJECT ROOM@BOTTOM produces its first viable molecular manufacturing facility. Over the next year, the project—rechristened the Federal Nanomanufacturing Defense Initiative—goes through a series of debugging and stability trials. The FNDI research team insists that it could iterate several generations of molecular fabrication devices in that time, but the bureaucratic management is cautious. Finally, by April of 2018, FNDI begins production and deployment of "smart dust" sensor surveillance systems in limited foreign theatres, as well as advanced aerospace and orbital surveillance and weapons applications. The entire production run of these new military devices, from initial design proposal to initial deployment, takes only about six weeks; FNDI staffers claim they could cut that down by two-thirds, easily.”  Scenario 2) Positive Expectations. “In 2018, China rolls out a "smart roads" initiative, combining a form of asphalt that collects solar power, wireless traffic safety and navigation systems, reconfigurable lane markers, and telecommunications infrastructure into a unified architecture. Most of its components are manufactured by fabs at the work site, rather than imported from a factory. While trumpeted as a breakthrough in construction, such novel uses of fabrication technologies are becoming increasingly commonplace.  The hyperroad example is characteristic of the kinds of changes triggered by the advances in fabrication technologies: improving efficiency; empowering local production; offering small markets the kind of customized support once given only to major buyers; flattening the economic differences between developed and developing worlds. All very useful, very important... and very evolutionary, not revolutionary.”  Scenario 3) Negative Drivers.  “Things fall apart; the center does not hold; mere anarchy is loosed upon the world. Self-reproducing MNFs changed the game completely. The old way of thinking of "economies of scale" required you to think bigger; with MNFs, economies of scale meant thinking smaller. By mid-2018, a combination of better systems and smarter design meant the development of super-efficient solar power products... costing nearly nothing to make.  I gotta hand it to the Japanese, though. They'd been also-rans in the development of nanofactories, and even though they were hit pretty hard by the Rot, their cities just didn't take to the neighborhood-scale MNFs. By 2019, though, Hitachi had engineered its own MNF, and realized that it could be made small enough to fit on a kitchen counter. The era of the personal nanofactory (PN) had begun. Hitachi was soon joined by a bunch of competitors, with Sony, Apple, and Nokia leading the pack. These early PNs were limited in important ways, and larger goods still needed to be produced at the local NNF. I've heard rumors about what the next version of the iMake is supposed to be able to do, though, and I can't wait.”  Scenario 4) Presidential Commission. “The Commission applauds the administration for the announcement of the "NanoManhattan Project" in the 2018 State of the Union Address, but cautions against relying too heavily on hype and marketing. NanoManhattan has yet to receive full funding, and may not get fully underway until 2020.”  Scenario 5) And Not a Drop to Drink.  “By the early 2020's, many regions around the world were asking the same political question... If nanofactory-based infrastructure allowed regions to make their own clean water and energy (nanotech-aided energy production had happened concurrently to the water issue), providing the basis of political autonomy, why should they answer to a central or foreign authority which often has an agenda, culture or history in opposition with their own, and which demands high rates for the use of nanofactory technology? The balkanization of the world accelerated, causing conflicts to flare in some regions and abate in others.” Scenario 6) A Goal Postphoned.  “Several successful techniques for large-scale manufacturing of extremely large molecular structures had been firmly established in academia and industry by 2020, and fully one-third of all nanotechnologists were engaged in developing new uses for the structures. This was seen as a great success for molecular manufacturing. The leading-edge work was still done in the United States, with other nations struggling to gain their share of patentable applications. Thus, the focus worldwide was on these new "molecular manufacturing" techniques, and it was widely agreed that "molecular nanotechnology" was a great success after all.” Scenario 7) News Hound Notebook.  “26 Mar 2018 - World leaders, predictably, have decried the terrible attacks on Pakistan (still untraced and unclaimed), but seem incapable or unwilling to take any meaningful steps toward nano arms control efforts. Plenty of words, but no action.  29 Apr 2018 - Israel and Iran have erupted into open warfare, mostly conducted with weapons produced by nanofactories. It seems all but certain that the war will spread to neighboring countries and perhaps much farther.  7 May 2018 - Many cities have been destroyed. The death toll is uncountable, but surely it is in the millions by now, and still climbing. Whole infrastructures lie demolished, dismantled, or abandoned, leaving tens of millions more starving, dying of disease, and often fighting hand to hand for survival.   22 May 2018 - It’s funny, in a sick sort of way, how quickly things can spin out of control. It reminds me of what I learned in high school about the start of World War I, where seemingly sensible people allowed events to carry them away, thinking that each little escalation would be the last, and not realizing that once begun, the cycle couldn’t be stopped. History repeats itself, I suppose, and now we’ve gone from the promise of nanotechnology helping us to control climate change and defeat poverty and cure illness to the brink of global war in just a few short years.”  Scenario 8) Breaking the Fever. “Strategies soon developed by the newly-formed CCRO ("Climate Crisis Response Organization") covered two broad approaches: 1) rapid replacement of greenhouse gas-emitting technologies with clean technologies; and 2) large-scale reversal of global warming processes. What neither the President nor the CCRO anticipated was that the information released by the White House about DARPA’s molecular manufacturing research would enable non-governmental groups to make a giant leap ahead in the design of commercial nanofactories.  People around the world were worried, but not terribly shocked, when the White House acknowledged in late 2019 that the first government-developed molecular fabricator would be delayed until 2022; the same people were surprised and elated when, just a month later, a group called the "Nanofactory Alliance" announced that their first working nanofabrication system would soon be ready to replicate working nanofactories for all of the CCRO working groups, and would be available at a significant discount to any industry or academic group working on reversing climate disruption. Not long after, a UK project (spun off from the landmark 2006 "IDEAS Factory" research effort) announced its own functional prototype nanofab. By the time the DARPA work finally came to fruition, more than a year behind schedule, a dozen different global commercial and academic teams had come up with their own alternative systems.”

 

The Future of the Internet of Everything National Intelligence Council (NIC). Janury 2009.   The NIC scenarios on the future of energy devices included a scenario on the “Internet of Everything” – smart, connected technologies that can be tracked on the Internet.  Walter Derzko then wrote more detailed scenarios on this technological phenomenon, provided in this abstract. Mr. Derzko maintains a blog titled,  “Smart Economy” - a forum for discussing smart discoveries and emerging technologies. Mr. Derzko is a futurist, scenarist, and instructor at Toronto University.  If all cans, books, shoes or parts of cars are equipped with small identifying devices, daily life on our planet will undergo a transformation. Things like running out of stock or wasted products will no longer exist as we will know exactly what is being consumed on the other side of the globe. Theft will be a thing of the past as we will know where a product is at all times. The same applies to parcels lost in the post. These are examples of smart connected technologies that can be tracked on the Internet.   According to the NIC, it is a possible that the Internet of  Everything (IoT) may become a disruptive technology because of its sheer ubiquitousness.  (A disruptive technology  is defined as a technology with the potential to cause a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in society.) The Internet of Everything can be potentially disruptive because  individuals, businesses, and governments might be unprepared for a possible future when Internet nodes reside in such everyday things as food packages, furniture, paper documents, and more. When considering the spectrum of possibilities for the state of the Internet-of-things in 2025, two key uncertainties span a number of unresolved issues that fall along two major axes: the timing of developments (slow versus fast) and the depth of penetration (niche versus ubiquity). On the basis of these two axes of uncertainty, four scenarios highlight how the future could play out to 2025.   Scenario 1) Fast Burn.  In "Fast Burn" the IoT develops rapidly but in a limited fashion, and fails to sustain its momentum. Although impacts become quite significant in particular application areas (industrial automation, health care, and security), the IoT doesn't fulfill the promise of becoming pervasive (and thus is of limited importance to everyday lifestyles, business operations, and the conduct of government). Ubiquitous positioning technology never materializes as military concerns about the risks of terrorists gaining access to improved geopositioning combine with inadequate local-government funding for emergency-service positioning. In this scenario, IoT technology confers similar risks and benefits to US interests to those experienced in "Connected Niches," but neither the risks nor the benefits to US interests inherent in "Ambient Interaction."   Scenario 2) Slowly But Surely.  In "Slowly But Surely" the IoT becomes pervasive, but not until 2035 or so. Outcomes are somewhat similar to those of "Ambient Interaction," but there are substantial differences. The relatively slow development of the technology gives businesses and governments time to assimilate developments, allaying the most disruptive risks. Many risks remain, but the sheer complexity of technology in 2035 makes the IoT less accessible to hacking by mischief-makers. Nevertheless, the most motivated malefactors and enemies of the United States can exploit the IoT in ways that are similar to those experienced in "Ambient Interaction," and benefits to US interests do not materialize as dramatically as they do in "Ambient Interaction."   Scenario 3) Connected Niches.   In "Connected Niches" the IoT evolves along application pathways that promise rapid payback and that can overcome resistance and indifference. Demand is commensurate with evolutionary but not revolutionary cost reductions, moderate technology progress that leaves some problems largely unsolved. Industries show reluctance to fully collaborate. Policies express at best a benign neglect for the potential advantages and, at worst, discriminate against innovation in favor of grandfathered interests. Even in 2025, positioning technology remains limited to outdoor use and many individual items lack RFID tags. Nevertheless, innovations encourage adoption of connected everyday objects and sensor networks in security, logistics, healthcare, document management, inventory management, fleet management, industrial automation, and robotics. In short, connected everyday devices are common in workplaces and military operations but not in households. Similarly, sensor networks mainly reside in workplaces and public places. Connected everyday objects and sensor networks deliver significant value to the economy and significant efficiencies to military organizations but also introduce significant vulnerabilities as new pathways for exploitation become available to mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the United States.”  Scenario 4) Ambient Interaction. In "Ambient Interaction" the IoT arises rapidly and pervasively, favored by technology progress, business collaboration, and innovation-friendly policies. Strong demand arises across several major sectors of the economy, as technological wizardry combined with creative business developments stimulate people's appetites for killer applications that reduce labor and tedium, confer peace of mind, and blur the lines between work, play, and commerce. Connected everyday objects and sensor networks are common in workplaces, public places, and households. By 2017, walk-through checkout procedures are the norm for retailing, and nationwide positioning technology is in place, including indoors. Strategic initiatives have ensured that the United States enjoys long-term economic and military advantages. Nevertheless, great risks accompany great benefits as pervasive computing introduces equally pervasive vulnerabilities. Just as the Internet aggravated the risks of cyberwarfare, spam, identity theft, and denial-of-service attacks, connected everyday objects become targets for malicious software that causes everyday devices to fail or spy. Sensor networks become channels for unauthorized surveillance by mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the United States.”

 

The Future of the Internet to the Year 2020.  Pew Internet & American Life Report on the 2008 Predictions Survey. Participants in the survey were presented with eight possible 2020 scenarios and asked to select if they "mostly agree" or "mostly disagree" with each.  Nearly half of the respondents are Internet pioneers and many of the respondents are involved with Internet leadership organizations. Notable participants included the World Bank, Booz Allen Hamilton, AT&T Labs, VeriSign, Cisco, Google, BBN Technologies, Fing, Yahoo Japan, France Telecom, the International Telecommunication Union, Alcatel-Lucent, the Electronic Frontier Foundation, GLOCOM, AfriNIC, Electronic Privacy Information Center, APNIC, Universiteit Maastricht, Amnesty International, BBC, PBS, IBM, Microsoft, Forrester Research, Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, Open Society Institute, Open the Future, Yahoo, First Semantic, CNET, Microsoft, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, IDG, FCC, Institute for the Future, 1&1 Internet AG, Moody’s, HP Laboratories, Amazon.com, Gannett, Lexis/Nexis, Tucows, InternetNZ, ICANN, and Oxford Internet Institute.

This eight-part 2008 survey of technology experts and social analysts inspired thousands of intriguing predictive statements tied to eight compelling question sets about the state of things in 2020.  Experts were asked what devices we will use to access the Internet and how we will connect if social tolerance will be improved thanks to new ways of connection, if our work and home lives will be better, and how much influence virtual reality and augmented reality will have. Among the quantitative results from the expert group: some 77% said the mobile computing device (the smartphone) with more significant computing power will be 2020's primary global Internet-connection platform; 64% favored the idea that 2020 user interfaces will offer advanced touch, talk and typing options and some added a fourth "T" – think; nearly four out of five respondents (78%) said the original Internet architecture will not be completely replaced by a next-generation 'net’ by 2020; three out of five respondents (60%) disagreed with the idea that legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies will exercise effective intellectual property control by 2020; a majority—56%—agreed that in 2020 "few lines (will) divide professional from personal time, and that's OK;  56% said while Web 2.0 is bringing some people closer, social tolerance will not be heightened by our new connections;
45% agreed and 44% disagreed with the notion that the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the Internet will heighten individual integrity and forgiveness; more than half (55%) agreed that many lives will be touched in 2020 by virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality, while 45% disagreed or did not answer the question. All scenarios in this report are set to the year 2020. [NOTE: The complete scenario narratives, survey results, quantitative analysis, and future research directions are available on the Pew Center website.]  Scenario One) The evolution of mobile Internet communications in 2020.  “The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in the world. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives to bring networked digital communications to everyone are successful on many levels, the mobile phone—now with significant computing power—is the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price. Telephony is offered under a set of universal standards and protocols accepted by most operators internationally, making for reasonably effortless movement from one part of the world to another. At this point, the "bottom" three-quarters of the world's population account for at least 50% of all people with Internet access—up from 30% in 2007.”  Scenario 2) The Internet and the evolution of social tolerance in 2020. “Social tolerance has advanced significantly due in great part to the Internet. In 2020, people are more tolerant than they are today, thanks to wider exposure to others and their views that has been brought about by the Internet and other information and communication technologies. The greater tolerance shows up in several metrics, including declining levels of violence, lower levels of sectarian strife, and reduced incidence of overt acts of bigotry and hate crimes.” Scenario 3)  The evolution of IP law and copyright protection in 2020.  “Content control through copyright-protection technology dominates. In 2020, strict content controls are in place thanks to the efforts of legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies. Those who use copyrighted materials are automatically billed by content owners, and Internet service providers automatically notify authorities when they identify clients who try to subvert this system. Protesters rarely prevail when they make claims that this interferes with free speech and stifles innovation.” Scenario 4) The evolution of privacy, transparency, integrity, and forgiveness in 2020.   “Transparency heightens individual integrity and forgiveness. In 2020, people are even more open to sharing personal information, opinions, and emotions than they are now. The public’s notion of privacy has changed. People are generally comfortable exchanging the benefits of anonymity for the benefits they perceive in the data being shared by other people and organizations. As people’s lives have become more transparent, they have become more responsible for their own actions and more forgiving of the sometimes-unethical pasts of others. Being "outed" for some past indiscretion in a YouTube video or other pervasive-media form no longer does as much damage as it did back in the first decade of the 21st Century. Carefully investigated reputation corrections and clarifications are a popular daily feature of major media outlets’ online sites.” Scenario 5) The evolution of augmented reality and virtual reality in 2020.  “Many lives are touched by the use of augmented reality or spent interacting in artificial spaces. In 2020, virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality are popular network formats, thanks to the rapid evolution of natural, intuitive technology interfaces and personalized information overlays. To be fully connected, advanced organizations and individuals must have a presence in the "metaverse" and/or the "geoWeb." Most well-equipped Internet users will spend some part of their waking hours—at work and at play—at least partially linked to augmentations of the real world or alternate worlds. This lifestyle involves seamless transitions between artificial reality, virtual reality, and the status formerly known as "real life." Scenario 6) The evolution of the Internet user interface in 2020.  “In 2020, the most commonly used communications appliances prominently feature built-in voice-recognition. People have adjusted to hearing individuals dictating information in public to their computing devices. In addition technologies based on touch feedback have been fully developed, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allows you to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surface for those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to your networked computer. It is common to see people "air-typing" as they interface with the projection of a networked keyboard visible only to them.” Scenario 7)  The evolution of the architecture of the Internet in 2020.  “Next-generation research will be used to improve the current Internet; it won’t replace it. In 2020, the original Internet architecture is in the continuing process of refinement – it hasn’t been replaced by a completely new system. Research into network innovation, with help from the continued acceleration of technologies used to build, maintain, enhance, and enlarge the system, has yielded many improvements. Search, security, and reliability on the Internet are easier and more refined, but those who want to commit crimes and mischief are still able to cause trouble.”  Scenario 8) The evolving concept of time for work and leisure in 2020. “Few lines divide professional time from personal time, and that’s OK. In 2020, well-connected knowledge workers in more-developed nations have willingly eliminated the industrial-age boundaries between work hours and personal time. Outside of formally scheduled activities, work and play are seamlessly integrated in most of these workers’ lives. This is a net-positive for people. They blend personal/professional duties wherever they happen to be when they are called upon to perform them—from their homes, the gym, the mall, a library, and possibly even their company’s communal meeting space, which may exist in a new virtual-reality format.”

 

Future Defense Industry Scenario. Sheila Ronis, Leader of the Project on National Security Reform (PNSR),  Vision Working Group.  Center for the Study of the Presidency (CSP),   Hudson Institute. Pub. 2009.   The Center seeks to improve the U.S. Government's ability to integrate all elements of national power and more effectively respond to the strategic challenges of the 21st century.  [NOTE: The reference in this scenario to “imbedded programming in small electronic connectors,” is aligned to J. Glenn’s elaboration in his book “Future Mind” that he coined as “JASS – jam all strategic systems.”  “Future Mind” was published twenty years ago (Acropolis Books, pub. June, 1989).]   

The Project on National Security Reform (PNSR)  has been involved in modeling and the managing nine working groups that undertook rigorous studies of the national security system.  Building on multiple analysis of historical case studies, PNSR’s methodology highlights recurring trends in national security. For the last 30 years, through mergers, joint ventures, outright acquisition and industrial espionage, the Chinese have gained access to and control of sensitive technologies. This is especially true in the electronics industry. In this scenario, China’s control of electronic connector production allows for infiltration of the U.S. industrial and military supply base. The infiltration was made even easier because virtually all ocean-borne shipping servicing the industrial base supply chain was Chinese-owned, providing multiple opportunities to control or deny movement of components and permitting the Chinese to disrupt the supply chain at will. Scenario) Future Defense Industry Scenario. “In this future scenario, hypothetical Chinese aggression towards Taiwan provokes a Sino-U.S. military confrontation.  Initially, the technologically superior and network-centric American military is quickly devastated by the Chinese' ability to activate imbedded programming in small electronic connectors.  This process effectively neutralizes the defense, attack, and navigation capabilities within every system on U.S. warships, submarines, and aircraft.  Because Beijing controls two-thirds of the world's supply of these seemingly harmless connective devices, the Chinese are able to deliberately and strategically infiltrate the U.S. military and industrial base and target four of the military's primary weapons systems programs. The purpose of this scenario is to expose flaws and weaknesses within the current U.S. national security apparatus.  It calls attention to potential dangers of overlooking current weaknesses in the U.S. defense industrial base and global supply chain.  The scenario also highlights the importance of evaluating assumptions and continually assessing novel events.   Chinese aggression towards Taiwan provides the impetus for Sino-U.S. military confrontation. During the beginning stages of conflict, the technologically superior and network-centric United States military is quickly devastated. The damage was not inflicted by conventional weapons, but was instead caused by electronic connectors – small, seemingly harmless connective devices used to join electrical circuits together, which are absolutely critical to everything using power. By activating imbedded programming in these electronic connectors, the Chinese are able to neutralize the defense, attack, and navigation capabilities within every system on U.S. ships, submarines, and aircraft. Because Beijing controls two-thirds of the world’s supply of these connective devices, the Chinese are able to infiltrate, deliberately and strategically, the U.S. military and industrial base and target four of the military’s primary weapons systems. This hypothetical case calls attention to potential dangers of not addressing current weaknesses in our defense industrial base and global supply chain. It also highlights the importance of evaluating assumptions and questioning the meaning of events in order to better prepare for the future.  One of the risks that makes this scenario plausible is that the Department of Defense does not require component origins identification beyond the third tier (the contracting supply chain consists of tiers), making maintaining cohesion and program security within the manufacturing and supply base extremely problematic. The monitoring of the supply chain proves insufficient and issues like “electronic connectors” go unnoticed.  One of the lessons this teaches is,  even though the threats that will emerge in the future are likely beyond our current commitments and contemplations, it would be a mistake to limit our ideas about the future by the narrow experiences of our past. While it can be dangerous to hold rigid beliefs about tomorrow, preparedness requires seeing possibilities before they become obvious and making wise decisions today.”

 

Energy Security – Energy Storage Materials Scenarios.  National Security Council (NIC) Disruptive Civil Technologies with Potential Impacts. A series of public reports looking to 2025. Among the series are insights into the future of Biogerontechnology, Energy Storage Materials, Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals, Clean Coal Technologies, and Service Robotics. Pub. 2009.   
The term “energy storage materials” defines a wide range of materials for storing energy. This area of energy science has the potential for disruption because it can change the way transportation and portable devices are utilized, particularly for fuel cells. (A disruptive technology  is defined as a technology with the potential to cause a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in society.) On a global economic level, the biggest level of disruption would be a transition away from dependency on fossil fuels with fuel cells driving society into a “hydrogen economy”.  Key uncertainties of energy storage materials technology the NIC analysed fall along two major axis: first, the developments in basic materials science; and second, choices in terms of global national energy policy. The key uncertainty (or key question) for materials science in the future is the extent to which progress is made in a wide variety of materials that will be required for new advanced batteries, ultracapacitors and for efficiently storing hydrogen. On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four scenarios were created.  [NOTE: The complete scenario narratives are available on the NIC website.]  Scenario 1) Running on Empty. “In this world, no breakthroughs occur in solving fundamental problems in energy technologies. Globally, countries are forced to rely on fossil fuels and either elect not to install large amounts of nuclear power or fail to do so fast enough. At some point, depending on the balance between dwindling reserves and expansion, particularly in Asia, economies will begin to stagnate as the price of oil increases. The population declines as it ages, countries periodically go to war over energy resources, and conservation is forced on consumers by lack of availability.”  Scenario 2) Super Clean. “In this world, technological breakthroughs in clean coal, clean oil, clean oil sands, carbon sequestration, and biofuels that do not compete with agriculture and food production result in a high-growth global economy that continues to be fueled by fossil fuels for at least 200 years. Switching to a hydrogen economy is not necessary and none of the hydrogen generation and storage technologies are required. Battery and ultracapacitor energy storage technologies are sufficient and part of the clean fossil fuel economy, transferring and storing energy efficiently from power-generating units to transportation and portable devices. Energy is available for environmental clean up, water purification, and infrastructure repair.”  Scenario 3) Competitive Conservation.  “In this world, lots of small, evolutionary advances in technology enable a sustainable and active economy, based on conservation of energy. Governments around the world compete with each other to make enlightened choices in policy to reduce waste of energy (such as by regulation, promoting low-energy consumption in lighting, green buildings, agriculture, personal transportation, and IT infrastructure) creating economic activity in the changeover. Imports of energy-guzzling products are banned, forcing reluctant countries to switch or lose competitiveness. Solar energy and wind power are marginally efficient and installed everywhere, creating millions of new jobs in installation and services around the world. Population growth levels off to sustainable levels, declining in some countries. People become conscious of their carbon footprint and seek to conserve energy. New businesses form around conservation. Hydrogen storage devices do not achieve the DOE goals, but are sufficient (4 or 5 % by weight) for hydrogen generated by solar and wind power to be stored in large, central facilities for end uses such as fleet vehicles and backup power for telecommunications and computer data centers. Energy storage technologies see marginal improvements and are able to ease the energy demand on all energy-consuming products in small ways that add up to enough to be meaningful. Portable electronic devices, wearables, and implants are partially charged by energy harvesting, ultracapacitors, and improved batteries.”  Scenario 4) Hydrogen Economy.  “In this world, big breakthroughs occur in cheap hydrogen generation, cheap, lightweight, and dense hydrogen storage, and fast and easy hydrogen dispensing technologies. Solar, wind, clean fossil fuel, biofuel, and even nuclear technologies could be a part of the hydrogen-generation infrastructure. Fuel cell transportation (cars, trains, ships, planes, and niche applications, including lift trucks and robots), infrastructure backup power, and fuel cell-powered portable electronic devices abound globally. Energy is a virtually infinite resource, available to any country, leading to an explosion of devices, solving of global water shortage problems, improvements in health in developing countries, an increase in global travel, and an expansion of space exploration programs.”

 

Shell Passenger Car Scenarios to 2030.   Facts, Trends and Options for Sustainable Auto-Mobility.  Shell Scenario Group. The full version of the Shell passenger car scenarios are available on the German version of the Shell website.  

Inclusive of Shell’s research for many years been a focus on the future of mobility. Shell has been observing the development of motorised individual transport since 1958. The last Shell passenger car scenarios were published in April 2004.  A key insight noted among the scenario group was, at times of unusually rapid change, scenarios tend to be more useful than traditional forecasts.  The present passenger car study revealed the consequences of demographic change for future auto-mobility, improvements in conventional fuel propulsion, and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.  Scenario 1) Automobile Adaptation. “The first scenario is strongly based on the passenger car trends of the recent past; it is a conventional trend forecast, answering the question of what changes will result in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions if the current passenger car trends are continued.The Trend scenario “Automobile Adaptation” is characterised by only very gradual technological change. Today’s propulsion and fuel technologies continue to be dominant. But there are still further shifts in the conventional fuel mix. The dieselisation of the German passenger car fleet continues, even though to a lesser extent. The diesel percentage of the passenger car fleet rises, ina situation of continuing high levels of new car registration, from today’s level of 24 % to nearly 40 % in 2030. Biofuel usage increases only slowly up to 2030 – from today’s level (2007) of less than 4 % to 10 % in 2030. Among the alternative propulsion forms, only hybrid vehicles can gain substantial shares of the market, accounting for about 20 % by 2030. The other alternative fuels and propulsion systems can expand their specific niches, but are not able to obtain substantial market shares. Thus in 2030 three quarters of all passenger cars will basically be equipped with conventional combustion engines and if hybrids are included the figure is more than 90 %.The specific fuel consumption of the passenger car fleet will drop from 7.8 to 6.1 litres per 100 km. Fuel consumption overall (excluding propulsion electricity and hydrogen) will drop in the Trend scenario from 35.1 million tonnes in 2005 by about one fifth to 28.1 million tonnes in 2030. Conventional propulsion systems will undergo very different developments – whereas gasoline powered vehicles will consume about 45 % less in 2030 versus baseline 2005, diesels will continue to increase their consumption up to 2020 and their consumption will be about 30 % higher in 2030 versus 2005. Taking account of biofuel use, passenger car consumption of fossil fuels will decrease to 25.3 million tonnes in 2030. The CO2 emissions of all passenger cars will be down 14 % by 2020 and down 23 % by 2030 versus baseline 2005, taking account of all alternative fuels and propulsion systems.”  Scenario 2) AutoMobility in Transition.  “This alternative scenario is characterised by accelerated technological change, backed by purposeful transport, energy and climate policy. The result is faster establishment of alternative fuels and propulsion systems via new registrations in the passenger car fleet. Here too, there will be further dieselisation of the passenger car fleet up to about 2020. But the most striking change in the passenger car fleet is rapid hybridisation; by 2030 about half of all new registrations will be hybrid vehicles – more than pure gasoline and diesel engines put together. In parallel to that, technical progress of conventional propulsion systems will continue, and will be apparent in a rapid decrease in specific fuel consumption. There will be larger quantities of sustainable biomass available, and by 2030 biofuels will increase to 15 % of conventional liquid fuels. Electric vehicles will account for 10 % of new registrations by 2030, and will then account for about 2 million vehicles in the passenger car fleet. Hydrogen technology will gradually be more widely used, with the first large-scale commercial applications. Although passenger cars with exclusively conventional propulsion will account for only just over one third of all new registrations by 2030, about 85 % of all passenger cars will still rely on the combustion principle, taking gasoline, diesel and hybrid drives together. Specific fuel consumption of the passenger car fleet will decline from 7.8 to 5.2 litres per 100 km.  Fuelconsumption overall (excluding propulsion electricity and hydrogen) will decrease in the alternative scenario from 35.1 million tonnes in 2005 by about one third to 23.5 million tonnes in 2030. Here again, consumption development of main propulsion systems will vary very widely: gasoline will be down about 50 % in 2030 versus 2005; the fuel consumption of diesel vehicles will rise in the period up to 2015 and then drop to the level of 2005 again. Taking account of the biofuel component, passenger car consumption of fossil fuels will only be about 20 million tonnes by 2030. The CO 2 emissions of all passenger cars will be down 21 % by 2020, and down 38 % by 2030 versus baseline 2005, taking account of alternative fuels and propulsion systems.”

 

Technology and Innovation in Financial Services - Scenarios to 2020.  World Economic Forum (WEF) World Scenario Series. The scenarios presented in this publication were developed over the course of a year in workshops at Davos, San Francisco, and London,
Technology and innovation are transforming the financial services industry. How will technology and innovation reshape the industry? What types of innovation will emerge? Who will lead them? Will new players appear? Where? How will market and regulatory environments evolve? The objective of these scenarios is to explore how innovation will transform access to, and delivery of, financial services by the year 2020.  [NOTE: The complete scenario narratives and analysis are available on the WEF website.]   Scenario 1) Global Ivy League.  “This is a world in which innovation is primarily driven by large global financial service providers. This results in mostly incremental improvements on current systems, distribution and sales channels and business models. These service providers would evolve into global processing factories with customized front-ends. Global Ivy League describes a highly concentrated financial services sector dominated by a small number of large, global players. Governments support globalization but take a very conservative approach to customer protection and regulation of the sector. At the same time, declining trust in digital media means customers favour the solidity of traditional financial service providers. In this environment, a small number of financial services institutions evolve into global powerhouses. This scenario is written as a business school case study providing historical analysis of the developments leading to a Global Ivy League.” Scenario 2) The Next Frontier.  “This is a world in which FS is a global market but innovation is driven mainly by new entrants and specialized players. As governments pursue deregulation and take a “laissez-faire” approach to new business models, the financial services sector operates as a modular ecosystem of highly specialized providers. Next Frontier describes a world in which governments pursue deregulation and, as the title reflects, technology enables a great variety of new business models to emerge. The result is a financial services industry as an ecosystem of highly specialized providers, each focusing on creating a competitive advantage over incumbents. There are many new players, including telecommunications companies, peer-to-peer financial services providers, processing providers, retailers and Internet companies. This scenario is written as a series of blog entries in 2021 in which an expert on financial services reflects on how technology has revolutionized the sector since 2007.”  Scenario 3) Innovation Islands.  “This is a world that differs fundamentally in that local and regional FS markets diverge as geopolitical tensions and instability stall globalization. In some countries, financial services play an important role in the development policies of governments. Innovation allows these players to “leapfrog” ahead of those in other countries which have either remained on a “business as usual” track or even regressed “back to the past”. These basic storylines were further developed by the project team and supported by additional analysis and data. Boxes on selected topics have been included within the scenarios, which are presented in creative formats to further illuminate some of the key issues that will shape the future of financial services. Innovation Islands describes a world in which globalization stalls due to geopolitical tensions and global instability. Government policies toward the financial services sector differ widely among countries. Three trends become apparent: 1) “Leapfrogging”: in large emerging economies such as China and India, government regulation and investment in infrastructure fosters the local financial service industry, expanding access to the poor and leading to new business models that “leapfrog” over developed markets in areas such as mobile banking and flexible, low-cost operating models; 2) “Business as usual”: in other mainly developed economies such as the US or European countries where innovation neither accelerates nor decelerates. There is only limited change to business models; and 3) “Back to the past”: in the remaining countries and regions, mainly in developing economies. Governments increase control over the financial services sector but do not foster local innovation; as a result, there is little progress and sometimes even regression in the efficiency and quality of FS. This scenario is written as a series of speeches given at the Indian Institute of Technology on the occasion of the 10th Annual Financial Services Innovation Awards ceremony.”

 

Our Biopolitical Future - Four Scenarios. Emerging Genetic Technologies Could Radically Reshape the World, for Good or Ill. By Richard Hayes.  World Watch Journal. March/April 2007.
The four scenarios of the human biopolitical future takes place over a 15-year period from 2007 through 2021.  Throughout human history and through the future, the human condition will compete for resources while at the same time, struggle to cooperate.  This is, according to Hayes, a tension between libertarian and communitarian values.  Unfortunately, we are seeing the tragedy of the commons happening on a global scale and it is becoming the challenge and responsibility of government to understand and manage the different levels of this phenomenon – from local to regional to global.   Survival demands good judgement in policymaking.  The following scenarios take into account the tension between the tendency for humans to exploit natural resources verses the tendency of humans to compromise.  [NOTE: The complete scenario narratives and analysis are available on the Worldwatch Institute website.]   Scenario 1) Libertarian Transhumanism Triumphs.  “In this world, both left- and right-libertarian values prevail.  Individualist social values and free-market economic values combine with powerful new genetic technologies to launch humanity along a new post-human trajectory.With visions of trillion-dollar markets waiting to be served, global biotech conglomerates raced to develop technologies allowing parents to screen embryos for behavioral and cosmetic traits. For the other end of the life-cycle, these same firms established high-tech life-extension and cryonics facilities throughout the world, most lucratively in small countries proudly advertising their lack of regulatory oversight. Now, in 2021, it’s clear that there’s no going back.“Techno” has fully replaced “natural” as a hallmark of excellence. The genetically enhanced elites relax in their gated communities, dine on transgenic squash and cloned beef, dote on their cloned pets, and look forward to receiving the latest GenePak® uploads for their kids. Libertarian transhumanism has become the hegemonic vision of the human future. Few people can any longer imagine a credible alternative.” Scenario 2) One Family, One Future.  “Communitarian values grounded in quasi-religious solidarity and patriarchy prevail. Reaction against the new human genetic technologies is part of a far-reaching neo-traditionalist backlash against modernity and post-modernity. This world involved the first step towards creating “The New Man” for the 21st century. Just eight months later, China—with an exploding GDP, growing nationalist fervor, and 60,000 freshly trained biotech engineers entering the workforce each year—announced a national initiative to improve the genetic quality of its people. All couples at risk of transmitting genes identified as deleterious were required to take steps to avoid doing so, with the government covering all costs. In addition, couples could volunteer to have their children “enhanced,” again with all costs covered. Leading Chinese rock stars and taikonauts were featured in a massive media campaign promoting the program.” Scenario 3) A Techno-Eugenic Arms Race.  “A lethal mix of communitarian nationalism and libertarian techno-capitalism spins out of control. Powerful genetic technologies are used by individuals, corporations, and countries in an escalating struggle for superiority and dominance. By 2018 most genetic research was being conducted by secret government and corporate labs. In that year it was reported that scientists in Mumbai had developed a procedure to slow the rate of human cellular aging by as much as 60 percent. Leading Indian government officials and biotech executives, realizing the havoc this technology could cause if made widely available, moved quickly to limit its use to priority national security resources: themselves. Today, in 2021, the genetic scientists and their political and military commanders have lost any sense of identification with the larger human community. In their minds the wellbeing of any existing human cannot be allowed to stand in the way of the historical transition to a post-human future. But they differ about who will supply the foundational human stock.”  Scenario 4) For the Common Good.  “Is grounded in communitarian values of the sort historically associated with social democracy and liberal internationalism. Liberal democratic and popular institutions, informed by values of equality, social justice, and community, establish cultural norms and legal institutions that support scientific research while precluding its use in ways that endanger human wellbeing. By 2018 success was in sight. In 2019 the UN General Assembly approved the Universal Convention on Biomedicine and Human Rights by a nearly unanimous vote. In 2020 the Convention went into force after having been approved by the parliaments of 110 countries. All involved recognized that they had participated in an undertaking of world-historical import. Just last month, the 2021 Nobel Prizes for Medicine and Peace were jointly awarded to the lead institutions that had made this all possible: The United Nations, the World Assembly of Science, the Global Council.”

 

Speculations on the Future of Science. Kevin Kelly.  Long Foundation. Series on long-term thinking hosted by Stewart Brand.  This scenario is based on Kevin Kelly’s “The Next 100 Years of Science: Long-Term Trends in the Scientific Method.”  Kevin Kelly helped launch Wired magazine in 1993, and served as its Executive Editor until January 1999. He is now Editor-At-Large for Wired.

Kevin Kelly describes five broad trends over the next 50 years. 1) More change in science.  More change in the next 50 years of science than in the last 400 years. 2) A century of biology. It is the domain with the most scientists, the most new results, the most economic value, the most ethical importance, and the most to learn. 3) Computers will keep leading to new ways of science. Information is growing by 66% per year while physical production grows by only 7% per year. The data volume is growing to such levels of "zillionics" that we can expect science to compile vast combinatorial libraries. 4) New ways of knowing will emerge. "Wikiscience" is leading to perpetually refined papers with a thousand authors. Distributed instrumentation and experiment, thanks to miniscule transaction cost, will yield smart-mob, hive-mind science operating "fast, cheap, & out of control." Negative results will have positive value (there is already a "Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine".  5) Science will create new levels of meaning. The Internet already is made of one quintillion transistors, a trillion links, a million emails per second, 20 exabytes of memory. It is approaching the level of the human brain and is doubling every year, while the brain is not.
The Scientific Method  in 2057.  “Fifty years from now the world of science drives the scientific method to become a multi-faceted and counterintuitive animal, far different from anything imagined in 2007.  Negative results are saved, shared, compiled and analyzed (known as compiled negative results) so negative results, once a part of the problem, reflect back in positive shadows and are run through trials with as much rigor as positive trials seeking positive results.  Best negative results are mutated and bred toward better results.  In the double blind experiments of the past, neither researcher nor subject were aware of the controls, but both were aware of the experiment.  In 2057,  triple blind experiments require participants to be blind to the controls and to the very fact of the experiment itself. In 2057, the way of science becomes dependant on cheap non-invasive sensors running continuously for years generating immense streams of data. While ordinary life continues for the subjects, a huge amount of data about their lifestyles are archived.   Like, the metrics of consumer habits of a hundred thousand people would be gauged for pattern recognition over a 20 year period.  Knowing something in that detail over a 20 year historic period can reap a beneficial 20 year trend forecast of a sampling much larger than an requiring of statistics.  In the area of hypothesis, multiple hypothesis matrix are utilized.  Instead of proposing a series of single hypothesis, in which each hypothesis is falsified and discarded until one theory finally passes and is verified, a matrix of many hypothesis scenarios are proposed and managed simultaneously.  An experiment travels through the matrix of multiple hypothesis, some of which are partially right and partially wrong. Veracity is statistical; more than one thesis is permitted to stand with partial results. Just as data were assigned a margin of error, so too will hypothesis. An explanation may be stated as: 20% is explained by this theory, 35% by this theory, and 65% by this theory.  A matrix also permits experiments with more variables and more complexity than before. Pattern Augmentation – Pattern-seeking software which recognizes a pattern in noisy results.  In large bodies of information with many variables, algorithmic discovery of patterns will become necessary and common.  These exist in specialized niches of knowledge (such particle smashing) but more general rules and general-purpose pattern engines will enable pattern-seeking tools to become part of all data treatment. Artificial intelligence will derive and check the logic of an experiment. Wiki-Science – The average number of authors per paper continues to rise. With massive collaborations, the numbers will boom. Experiments involving thousands of investigators collaborating on a "paper" become commonplace on 2057. The paper is ongoing, and never finished.  It becomes a trail of edits and experiments posted in real time — an ever evolving "document." Contributions are not assigned. Tools for tracking credit and contributions will be vital. Responsibilities for errors will be hard to pin down. Wiki-science will often  be the first word on a new area. Some researchers will specialize in refining ideas first proposed by wiki-science.”

 

Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution. Eric Drexler.  Nanotechnology Center, Professor Kobayashi.  Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI).

The “what if” questions that inspire futurists won’t always appear in the newspapers.  Some are too scary. The news that nanotechnology will rapidly change society has invoked many questions, but one consequence will need exploring on a social and economic level before it is unleashed: the idea that molecular manufacturing might replace modern technology in a massive way.  To a workingman, this is scary.  Within the next 50 years, nanotechnology will outbreak from the lab to the manufacturing sector and dramatically replace processes such as cutting, etching, grinding, spraying; replacing crude machines (like supercomputers), so that whole new manufacturing processes will involve molecular placement, strategic atom sailing, flying cellular birdies, and atomic eagles.  It will eventually be an inexpensive way to control the structure of matter.  Drexler shows a provocative way of looking at the future of nanotechnology:  “Every tree makes leaves, and each leaf is more sophisticated than a spacecraft, more finely patterned than the latest chip from Silicon Valley. They do all this without noise, heat, toxic fumes, or human labor, and they consume pollutants as they go. Viewed this way, trees are high technology. Chips and rockets aren't. Trees give a hint of what molecular nanotechnology will be like...”   Scenes from a Post-breakthrough World: Scenarios of the Future of Nanotechnology.  The following are excerpts from Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution.   

Solar Energy.  “In Fairbanks, Alaska, Linda Hoover yawns and flips a switch on a dark winter morning. The light comes on, powered by stored solar electricity. The Alaska oil pipeline shut down years ago, and tanker traffic is gone for good.  Nanotechnology can make solar cells efficient, as cheap as newspaper, and as tough as asphalt–tough enough to use for resurfacing roads, collecting energy without displacing any more grass and trees. Together with efficient, inexpensive storage cells, this will yield low-cost power (but no, not "too cheap to meter").”

Medicine that Cures.  “Sue Miller of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been a bit hoarse for weeks, and just came down with a horrid head cold. For the past six months, she's been seeing ads for At Last!®: the Cure for the Common Cold, so she spends her five dollars and takes the nose-spray and throat-spray doses. Within three hours, 99 percent of the viruses in her nose and throat are gone, and the rest are on the run. Within six hours, the medical mechanisms have become inactive, like a pinch of inhaled but biodegradable dust, soon cleared from the body. She feels much better and won't infect her friends at dinner. The human immune system is an intricate molecular mechanism, patrolling the body for viruses and other invaders, recognizing them by their foreign molecular coats. The immune system, though, is slow to recognize something new. For her five dollars, Sue bought 10 billion molecular mechanisms primed to recognize not just the viruses she had already encountered, but each of the five hundred most common viruses that cause colds, influenza, and the like. Weeks have passed, but the hoarseness Sue had before her cold still hasn't gone away; it gets worse. She ignores it through a long vacation, but once she's back and caught up, Sue finally goes to see her doctor. He looks down her throat and says, "Hmmm." He asks her to inhale an aerosol, cough, spit in a cup, and go read a magazine. The diagnosis pops up on a screen five minutes after he pours the sample into his cell analyzer. Despite his knowledge, his training and tools, he feels chilled to read the diagnosis: a malignant cancer of the throat, the same disease that has cropped up all too often in his own mother's family.  He touches the "Proceed" button. In twenty minutes, he looks at the screen to check progress. Yes, Sue's cancerous cells are all of one basic kind, displaying one of the 16,314 known molecular markers for malignancy. They can be recognized, and since they can be recognized, they can be destroyed by standard molecular machines primed to react to those markers. The doctor instructs the cell analyzer to prime some to go after her cancer cells. He tests them on cells from the sample, watches, and sees that they work as expected, so he has the analyzer prime up some more.  Sue puts the magazine down and looks up. "Well, Doc, what's the word?" she asks. "I found some suspicious cells, but this should clear it up," he says. He gives her a throat spray and an injection. "I'd like you to come back in three weeks, just to be sure." "Do I have to?" she asks.  "You know," he lectures her, "we need to make sure it's gone. You really shouldn't let things like this go so far before coming in."  "Yes, fine, I'll make the appointment," she says. Leaving the office, Sue thinks fondly of how old-fashioned and conservative Dr. Fujima is.  The molecular mechanisms of the immune system already destroy most potential cancers before they grow large enough to detect. With nanotechnology, we will build molecular mechanisms to destroy those that the immune system misses.

Cleansing the Soil. “California Scout Troop 9731 has hiked for six days, deep in the second-wilderness forests of the Pacific Northwest. "I bet we're the first people ever to walk here," says one of the youngest scouts. "Well, maybe you're right about walking," says Scoutmaster Jackson, "but look up ahead–what do you see, scouts?" Twenty paces ahead runs a strip of younger trees, stretching left and right until it vanishes among the trunks of the surrounding forest.  "Hey, guys! Another old logging road!" shouts an older scout. Several scouts pull probes from their pockets and fit them to the ends of their walking sticks. Jackson smiles: It's been ten years since a California troop found anything this way, but the kids keep trying. The scouts fan out, angling their path along the scar of the old road, poking at the ground and watching the readouts on the stick handles. Suddenly, unexpectedly, comes a call: "I've got a signal! Wow–I've got PCBs!" In a moment, grinning scouts are mapping and tracing the spill. Decades ago, a truck with a leaking load of chemical waste snuck down the old logging road, leaving a thin toxic trail. That trail leads them to a deep ravine, some rusted drums, and a nice wide patch of invisible filth. The excitement is electrifying.  Setting aside their maps and orienteering practice, they unseal a satellite locator to log the exact latitude and longitude of the site, then send a message that registers their cleanup claim on the ravine. The survey done, they head off again, eagerly planning a return trip to earn the now-rare Toxic Waste Cleanup Merit Badge.  Today, tree farms are replacing wilderness. Tomorrow, the slow return to wilderness may begin, when nature need no longer be seen as a storehouse of natural resources to be plundered.”

 

The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Their Implications for Human Healthcare.  Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Michael S. Tomczyk (Eds.); Wharton School Mack Center for Technological Innovation, Philadelphia, PA; 2006; 132 pp.

This report by Decision Strategies International and the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School aims to help bioscience companies "prepare for the future, challenge current thinking and find ways to profit from uncertainty." With contributions from more than 50 bioscience industry leaders, it includes four scenarios that describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies from now until 2020 and beyond:  The following are excerpts from the scenarios. Scenario 1) "Where's the Beef".  The world is becoming increasingly hazardous to your health.  In this scenario, medical science is unable to cure many common diseases despite strong public pressure and support. Biomedicine and gene therapy in particular have not fulfilled their early promise despite decades of research. Scenario Excerpt: In 2020,public demand for biomedical solutions and “breakthroughs” is extremely high, especially for incurable forms of cancer, cardiovascular disease,  diabetes, Alzheimer’s, AIDS, malaria, hereditary  conditions, drug-resistant infections, to name a few.” technology has been slow to deliver, causing the public to demand: “Where’s the beef?”

Scenario 2)  "Science Held Hostage". Successful life science treatments and cures can not break through the obstacles posed by negative public sentiment, legal barriers and lack of funding.  This scenario points out the occurrence of scientific breakthroughs, but public opposition and ever-increasing legal barriers prevent their commercialization. Moral or ethical concerns, especially in human gene manipulation, stall new products. This opposition comes from lack of education or understanding of how life science technologies work, as well as legitimate safety and ethical concerns. The greatest obstacles entail moral or ethical considerations involving the manipulation of human genes and proteins and other molecular structures. Scenario Excerpt: Significant developments and breakthroughs in new life science technologies have produced “raging success” in the field, but many of the most novel and effective of these are rejected by consumers, government agencies, advocacy groups and in some cases, entire regions of the world.  Scenario 3. “Much Ado About Nothing”. The long delay in delivery of molecular science solutions has led people in all nations to settle into a “status quo” mentality, where expectations for medical miracles exist in theory, but not in real life.  Advances take a long time and sick people across the globe lose hope that future therapies can save them, according to "Bio Gridlock." There's great frustration at the lack of results even after decades of increasing research funding.  Patients suffering from debilitating diseases have lost hope in the power of technology to save them. Disease advocacy groups are frustrated after decades of lobbying for research funding, given the lack of results. Scenario Excerpt: In 2020, molecular science has failed to fulfill its early promise, leading to frustration among patients, practitioners, investors and politicians. Technology has not delivered the expected and hoped-for solutions, and society remains deeply conflicted.  Scenario 4)  "New Age of Medicine".  The new age of medicine envisioned in the 1990s has finally come to pass. This scenario demonstrates the healing powers of vast database libraries that help match patients and treatments in a system of total lifelong patient care and personal monitoring. Increasingly, patients in developing nations gain access to this and sophisticated medical treatments.  Medical technology has provided effective treatments or alternatives for many previously fatal diseases. Breakthroughs in regenerative medicine have extended the life expectancy of people in developed countries, exacerbating the pressures caused by aging populations. Millions of people in developing nations have benefited from novel cures for malaria and many other diseases. Scenario Excerpt: Remarkable achievements in molecular science and other areas of medicine have ushered in a “new age of medicine.” Biomedical solutions are making it possible to eradicate or control most diseases, extend longevity, and improve the quality of life.

 

The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015.Scenario Thinking & Associates. Daniel Erasmus is founder of scenario thinking.org.  A fellow at the Rotterdam School of Management, he has facilitated the development of more than 50 scenario sets on the future of the information society.  In these scenarios, he works with experts in the field of biotechnology.

Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around 100 billion.   According to Erasmus, the  definition of biotechnology is, "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules." Biotechnology has spawned  laboratory techniques over the past 20 years that has revolutionized many industries. These overview scenarios are the result of a planning process group exploring trends in the future of the biotechnology industry over the next ten years. Scenario 1)  Biotechnology Boost. “Already in 2004 Ernst&Young’s Biotechnology report “Beyond Borders” had announced that the Biotech market would grow 20 % in 2005. Investment levels of venture capitalists, successful IPO’s and R&D were in line with this growth percentage and the biotech market as a whole had become profitable in 2008. Because of the virtually endless fundamental research that became available, after the full genetic structure of human’s was decoded, R&D costs decreased substantially. Development costs for marketable drugs had come down from $800 million in 2005 to less than $150 million. More effective (genome based) R&D had made this possible. Moreover the industry started to transfer R&D activities to low wage countries like China and India. Price levels of drugs went down, however profit margins still went up grace to the fact that development costs could be reduced so dramatically.  Thanks to the reduction of drug prices, the biotech industry managed to bring drugs out of the public focus as being the major drivers of healthcare costs. Instead of drug prices, exaggerated public hospital infrastructure and the sheer number of medical doctors and their wages were acclaimed to be responsible for the increases in healthcare costs.  However healthcare costs will again be an issue in the future: Healthcare costs in absolute terms will go up exponentially because of the still aging population. - The field of orphan drugs, where relatively only a few can benefit, will continue to be attractive. Prices basically play no role in this field.  The boundaries between biotech and traditional pharmaceutical industries got closer and closer until 2010. Competition among countries in biotech research had been intense. It still is, Countries were aggressively supporting biotech companies who were willing to move research centres and production plants onshore. This was one more reason not only for the vast amount of fundamental research in biotechnology now available but also for the increasing amount of applied research conducted, and the experience and know how gained in developing and launching successful drugs. After 2010 pharma majors desperately acquired biotech companies and transformed themselves into biotech players. Those who failed to do so have been increasingly absorbed by the biotech majors. In fact, there is hardly a difference today between biotech and traditional pharma industries.  From 2005 onwards, the world got more and more aware that new diseases had been arising faster and faster. Looking back, we can conclude that bird flu, other new types of flu, HIV and but also several new types of cancer were the most important examples. Grace to biotechnology, effective drugs could be developed fast enough to cope with these diseases and many of these drugs turned out to be blockbusters. Thanks to the quick and effective reaction of the biotech industry to these challenges the industry was able to gain major support from supranationals like the European Union and the WHO. Consequently public education in biotechnology was improved and was broadly accepted as the answer to these new challenges. The ethical debate turned out to be in favor of the biotech industry in at least the area of medical applications. .  There may be many factors though which might slow down the growth of biotechnology. Maybe terrorism. Maybe the oil crisis. Maybe global warming. It’s just maybe, maybe…….” 

Scenario 2)  Biotechnology Business Matures. “The explosion has not taken place. Major players in Biotech as well as private and public investors in medical biotech research had expected a revolution in medical applications, grace to a vastly increased knowledge and fundamental research base and thus a vast universe of opportunities for new applications with shrinking R&D cost. This has not happened. Developing successful applications upon the vast knowledge base in biotech turned out to be much more difficult and much more expensive than expected. The rate of innovation finally didn’t turn out to be higher than it was in the years and decades before with classical pharmaceutical R&D. In addition, development periods for new drugs generally even became longer, due to increased security concerns and thus stricter approval practices by both, FDA and EMEA. Starting from around 2009, biotech was no longer considered a hot topic by the venture capital community, particularly in the US. In the Industry for medical application the border between classical pharma and biotechnology began to vanish. Nowadays (2015), this border has virtually disappeared. -  Cost pressure in healthcare inclusive the cost pressure for drugs and medical applications persisted. Efforts of the industry, to bring drug prices out of the public focus as being one of the major cost drivers in healthcare, failed. Healthcare costs now make around 30% of the US government spending, and in other countries there is not much difference. Governmental efforts in several countries to transfer a bigger part of the healthcare cost from the public household to private individuals met considerable resistance and could only be conducted to a small degree. These measures only had a slight impact on the development of healthcare costs. In addition, structural problems as well as adverse incentives in healthcare remained partly unsolved. As a consequence, pressure on the drug industry to reduce drug prices increased. Especially in the US, the government was no more willing, to accept that drug prices in the country exceeded those in other parts of the world by significant percentages. Parallel import had therefore been made possible. The same was the case in those European countries where drug prices exceeded those in the rest of the world. Health insurers and politicians at the same time enhanced the incentives for consumers to ask their doctors to prescribe generics wherever possible which was followed to a large degree. All this had the consequence that margins on drugs in general got smaller and cost pressure for the pharma- and biotech industries increased. Drug production and R&D activities began to get transferred to emerging markets. But still, profitability of products remained tight.  - Governments decreasingly saw biotechnology as the panacea to solving all the economic problems of their country. Biotechnology in medical applications was more and more becoming an industry like any other. Profitability established itself about on the level that previously had already been reached by most pharma multinationals but remained under steady pressure.  - Ethical problems remained unsolved for a long time and the debate still keeps popping up from time to time. The 2005 presidential veto in the US against stem-cell research funding with public funds persisted and inhibited the implementation of a corresponding legal framework. For some time, both, the US biotech industry as well certain leading US economists feared that they could fall back against countries like the UK or south Korea – which had a much more permissive legal framework. However this discussion calmed down pretty soon. Transformation of basic research - including basic research in stem cell cloning - into marketable medical applications had proved to be much more difficult than expected and more difficult to plan than expected. In fact, some successful applications have been developed. A successful cure for bird flu was launched in 2009 and a new MS drug (which is still not able to heal the disease but which is able to delay the symptoms for much longer) was launched shortly after. But the high hopes set into the industry were not fulfilled. Common worldwide notion today is, that the innovation pace is not higher than the one we have been observing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 20 years. Development costs still are around € 1billion for a successful application. Additionally only one project out of eight is successful. For these reasons, the ban of publicly funded stem-cell research had gotten out of focus as a major barrier hindering economic growth in the US. In other countries, there was no major boom in successful medical applications based upon stem cell research – the revolution is still to happen.  - Competition among countries in biotechnology can be considered as healthy. None of the G9 (former G7) and G13 (former G10) countries today considers biotechnology as their only key topic for economic development. The same is the case with most of the important emerging markets. In view of the fact that governmental sponsoring was producing encouraging results in basic research but that successful transformation of these into successful application and hence into jobs and economic growth did not take place at the pace that governments had hoped, they stopped pumping funds aggressively into biotech research. India and China became centres for outsourced applied R&D, they built up considerable manufacturing capacity for biotech drugs and built up an increasingly competitive local pharmaceutical industry. However, this is considered nowadays as a normal consequence of both globalisation and the trend towards outsourcing to these areas of the world. To summarize, support of biotechnology is no longer the first priority of governments in most of the important economic areas of the world.  - Borders between biotech and classical pharma have vanished. Biotechnology majors have expanded into the business with pharma generics. Likewise former pharma multinationals have built up vast biotech operations. Today it is no longer an issue whether a drug is based on biotechnology or whether it is an outcome of classical pharma research. The Biotech / Pharma industry grows with about 8-10% per year which is similar to the Growth Rate of Pharma between 2000 and 2005.”

Scenario 3) Biotechnology Bubble Burst. “Maybe it was the recent memory of the dot.com rise and fall that eventually led to the dramatic and turbulent changes in the biotech industry. In any case it had many similarities. In the early years of the 21st century, the biotech industry could look back on a period of 20 years with growth rates of around 20%. The total market capitalization of the Biotech industry was more than $300 billion in 2005.  2005 was followed by difficult years for the biotech industry. Transfer of fundamental research into applications was much more complex than expected and development cost exceeded expectations by far. Also, both FDA and EMEA got much stricter in their approval practices and in monitoring drugs, after several spectacular cases where drugs had to be withdrawn from the market (the most spectacular cases were VioX and Tysabri). The negative impact on industry reputation triggered by these withdrawals was much more dramatic than in earlier years. These may have been the main reasons that explain why the industry failed to bring any new blockbuster drugs to the market. At the same time, a number of privately funded biotech companies, untouched by official regulations, announced that they were pursuing experiments with human cloning, media attention and public reactions increased dramatically. People, especially religious movements in the US, began demonstrating and received a vast amount of media attention as a result. The focus of the demonstrations were not directly related to details and potential hazards of stem cell research, but instead more focused on the potential horrors of cloning as well as on abortion issues. The situation eventually worsened, when information and pictures appeared of failed cloning experiments involving human embryos. Most of the global (and national) ethnic and regulatory bodies in the world were in uproar and demanded a complete stop of human cloning R&D, huge penalties to the companies involved and imprisonment of the responsible managers and researchers. The media also worsened the situation by “sensationalism” journalism, increasing the fear in the public and increasing the pressure on politicians to address the problems. - After the uproar that followed the unsuccessful cloning experiments, biotech regulation had clearly become a hot political topic. Most developed nations started to impose laws on biotech R&D and detailed monitoring mechanisms were adapted to prevent further “unethical” and “dangerous” development projects in the future. The imposed restrictions led to a draining of the capital that had been the foundation of the successful growth in the biotech industry up to 2010. Governments saw themselves forced to cut R&D spending on biotech projects, because of pressure from the lobbying of ethical and religious groups and from the increasing media attention. The lack of financial governmental support also caused the venture capital industry to turn their backs on the biotech industry. The fact that venture capitalists started to look elsewhere was also the result of the many new and exciting “hot” industries that started to emerge around 2010 (e.g. nanotechnology). Furthermore, the first years after 2010 saw again a downturn in the economy, which caused further drainage of funding sources. This situation forced most biotech companies to focus on a few “money generating” products, and the aggressive R&D projects which were attractive to investors were no longer feasible for most companies due to financial constraints. As a result, more and more biotech companies were forced into liquidation, and many were desperately seeking buyers (many comments were made to the analogy of the dot.com situation in the early years of the millennium). The biotech industry went through a dramatic consolidation. Eventually, in 2015, the total market cap of the biotech industry was merely 250 billion $. The few successful biotech companies that had survived the industry downturn had seen their stock prices tumble, and most were taken over by major traditional medical companies. The biotech industry was no longer what it once had been.”

 

The Future of Nanotechnology. Nanologue Project, a 21-month EU funded project looking at the social, ethical, and legal implications of nanotechnology. Volker Turk, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy & Hugh Knowles, Forum for the Future.  September 2005.

There are choices we make now that will have consequences in the future. The scenarios developed in this workshop have helped policy makers prepare the ground to enhance the dialogue on social and ethical aspects of nanotechnology. It consists of three scenarios of how nanotechnology will have developed by 2015. These are written from the perspective of a researcher in 2015 examining the current state of nanotechnology.  The scenarios point out what the key concerns are and the pathway that led to this point. Full text of the scenarios are available at www.nanologue.  Scenario 1) Disaster Recovery. “A lack of regulation results in a major accident.  Public concern about nanotechnology is high and technology development is slow and  cautious. Public institutions have been slow to plan for the possibility of health or environmental risks related to nanotechnology and private enterprise has been reluctant to self-regulate. This lack of regulation contributed to a major accident at a manufacturing plant in Korea in 2012. Public concern about nanotechnologies escalated and a cautious approach to technology development was adopted.  Although the technology is still being used and the science is still developing, the term nanotechnologies isused less, and the prefix nano has all-but disappeared.  Except from the scenario:  In 2014, after the accident, residues of manufactured nanoparticles were discovered in Arctic sea ice.  A coherent EU regulatory framework for nanoscience and technology was finalized, based loosely on the UK guidelines.  IN 2015, a consortium of European businesses published a report criticizing the EU framework and committed to developing its own, stricter guidelines.”  Scenario 2) Now We’re Talking. “Strong regulation and accountability systems are in place. The technology has been shaped by societal needs and strong health and safety concerns. Regulation of new technologies has been standardized internationally and strong accountability systems are in place, enabling transparent development of nanotechnology.  Public sector incentives have directed research towards products that explicitly benefit society, supported by public participation.  Local stakeholder forums debate issues that arise from the use of technology (such as privacy) and make decisions for their local area. The strong regulatory regime, especially around issues of toxicity, has meant that health and safety risks are spotted early on and are well-managed. The focus on products that benefit society and reduce environmental impact has paid off: growing resource stress means demand for these products is increasing around the world. Excerpt from scenario. In 2015, BBC documentary “Whatever happened to nanotechnology?” is broadcast. The program revisits 2006, the fears of the time and looks at developments of the past ten years. The program takes viewers back to some of the more radical predictions from 2006, such as curing blindness.  It becomes clear throughout the documentary that the technology has not developed as fast as was predicted by some in 2007.  ON the other hand, none of the disasters predicted have materialized either. So on the whole, the documentary concludes, we are better off, the ground work has been laid and the future looks brighter.”   Scenario 3) Powering Ahead. “This scenario entails scientific progress which occurs faster than  expected. Nanotechnology is making a real impact, particularly in energy conversion  and storage.  Scientific progress has been faster than expected and nanotechnology-related products are making a real impact on society and the economy. For example, there have been dramatic improvements in the efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, with the result that applications expected to come into the market in the 2020s are already a reality. Long-term investments in fossil fuel resources are progressively losing value and new market entrants are growing quickly. The speed of change has left regulation behind. Although there has been discussion around the risks of novel materials, as far as public debate is concerned the benefits so far outweigh the risks.”

 

Preparing for the Future. Reports Issued on Biotechnology Traceability and Uses. The Food Institute Report 19, May 16, 2005.

The USDA issued two reports on agricultural biotechnology that cover worldwide requirements for tracing and labeling of agricultural biotechnology products. The report shows that predicting the use of the products can be complicated.  The first report considers proliferation and labeling: how different segments of the United States food and feed supply chain are addressing those requirements; and, marketplace issues.  The  second report provides USDA with an analysis of the factors that will shape the use of biotechnology in the future. It identifies broad trends and uncertainties.  The report also provides three examples of scenarios for the future. Each scenario is intended as a description of what the world might look like  a decade from now. For a copy of the complete scenarios, contact the USDA for the report, “Preparing for the Future”.  1)  Rosy Future.  Excerpt from the scenario.  “By 2015, life science research delivered beyond anyone’s expectations. Like those involved in the information technology revolution, even those doing the research and investment were overwhelmed by the scale and speed of change. Among the new products were crops with  increased yield, resistance to key stresses like drought, plants engineered for new energy uses,  including production of biodiesel, and new food products that provide valuable health benefits. In addition, plants with various combinations of traits significantly increased the utility or impact of these new crops. Agricultural biotechnology began being employed all over the world, not only in agricultural exporting countries. Research and development continued in the Western world and in those developing countries whose governments quickly recognized the opportunities and were able to provide an appropriate investment climate. European nations continued their development of new ag biotech uses for pharmaceutical, industrial, and energy products. European opposition to food uses decreased significantly as EU governments, non-governmental organizations, and consumers realized the value of increasing agricultural productivity on GDP and competitiveness. More food could be produced on less land, which was fortunate because, as Chinese and Indian incomes rose, demand for animal feed exploded. Had the new transgenic products not come on line, meeting demand would have required bringing enormous amounts of new agricultural land under cultivation. Farmers now faced a much more complex world with an even broader array of crop and seed variety options.”  2) Continental Islands. Excerpt from the scenario.  “New products of biotechnology continued to be developed and introduced into the marketplace.  Farmers in a number of countries in the Americas and Asia continued to adopt biotech crops, based on significant positive economic impacts. Many of these new products were plant varieties with two or more new traits in a single variety, providing additional value for growers, and some new agronomic and consumer focused products have come to the market. Development of transgenic animals continued for niche applications, including xenotransplantation, but not for food uses. Given smaller markets, little investment was made in minor crop biotechnology. The process for bringing transgenic agricultural products through the regulatory approval process to commercialization remained efficient in the U.S., Canada, and Argentina, and China, Mexico and Brazil joined their ranks. In some other countries with much slower regulatory processes, such as India, Australia, the European Union, and some African countries, additional products were only commercialized slowly. In other countries the approval processes remained non- existent or cumbersome. Despite continued efforts, no international harmonization of regulations occurred and restrictive regulations continued to serve as trade barriers. Different countries or regions had varying regulatory systems and procedures. Labeling of biotechnology products varied by country and was non-standard. The United States continued to be a major producer and distributor of biotechnology products. Other major growers and producers were Canada, Argentina, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. One or more of these countries commercialized a major transgenic crop not commercialized in the U.S. Asia and the rest of Africa remained divided, with some countries accepting or promoting the technology, and others rejecting it (even as food aid).”  Scenario 3) Biotech Goes Niche. Excerpt from the scenario.  “After a splashy debut, genetically engineered crops products did not turn out to be major components of world commodity agriculture, but continued to thrive in important niche markets. The first two products of crop biotechnology--- Bt and herbicide tolerance products, widely adopted in the U.S., Canada, and South America, were not followed by other blockbuster products. Some major agricultural regions continued to reject genetically engineered crops. No transgenic varieties of wheat were ever commercialized. None of the promised new traits—drought tolerance or cold tolerance—panned out for corn, soy, cotton, or canola. The first generation of adopters remained enthusiastic about herbicide-tolerant and insect resistant (Bt) crops but was gradually forced to turn away from them because of lack of global acceptance and increased use of marker assisted technologies for development of improved germplasm in conventional seeds, but not “transgenic crops”. The public did not accept the genetic engineering of animals for food uses, and given the technical difficulties associated with many of the modifications, there was no enthusiasm for commercializing genetically engineered animals for those uses. However, applications involving genetic engineering of animals for producing pharmaceuticals or tissues for xenotransplantation came on line. The reasons for the fading away of transgenic products were complicated. First, the technology never overcame the barriers inherent in engineering useful traits involving multiple genes. Research costs remained high. The few products with claims to improved nutrition were never attractive enough to enjoy large price premiums. Without those price premiums it was hard to justify big investments in continued research and identity preservation schemes. In the regulatory arena, mandatory food safety approval and transboundary movement requirements continued to increase as did the cost and time it took to go to market. There were some efforts amongst countries to harmonize requirements. However, the majority of countries developed their own regulatory systems based on local needs and market protection preferences.”

 

The Future of Computing Demand. CTO Greg Papdopoulos, Sun Microsystems, presented at the Analyst Day Conference, February, 2007.

Sun Microsystems hosted its annual Analyst Day presentation series on information technology. In one of the presentations, CTO Greg Papadopoulos presented the future of computing demand.   He surmised that the traditional big driver of computing demand - basic business computing - has lost its force. The growth in computing power through Moore's Law now far outstrips the growth in demand from traditional business computing. That means that businesses will need far fewer computers in the future to fulfill demand – “a fact already manifesting itself in IT departments' emphasis on server consolidation and virtualization.” The big opportunity for business is to improve capacity and realize three new drivers of computing demand that go beyond Moore’s Law: “ 1. Rich multimedia content delivered through the broadband Internet (think YouTube and VOIP);  2. High-performance supercomputing (think weather modeling and drug development); and 3. Software as a service (think Salesforce.com, Webex and Office Live).” In combination, these three sources will produce an exponential leap in demand for computing - called "Redshift". In the future, a fundamental split will open up in the market with very different sets of customers (one with stagnant demand and one with burgeoning demand) and with very different needs.   The following two scenarios are described in the presentation, Future of Computing Demand by Greg Papdopoulos.  Scenario 1) Sun’s Nightmare. Under this scenario, the new mega-scale computing operations follow the Google model and "disintermediate" traditional computer companies. They build their own systems from scratch. The old enterprise computer business turns into a "commodity parts market," as Papadopoulos puts it.  Scenario 2) Sun’s Dream.   “Under this scenario, the mega-scale computing giants continue to look to outside suppliers to provide the sophisticated computing systems they need. Google, in this scenario, is an early pioneer of the engineering of mega-scale computing but it is not a model for the future supply of such computing. (A historical analogue for Sun's dream is mega-scale electricity production a hundred years ago - the big utilities didn't all build their own generating systems; they bought them from GE and Westinghouse.)  In Sun's dream, computing (like electric current) becomes a commodity but computers (like electric generators) don't. Those who dominate the computer business of the future, under this scenario, would be the engineering giants, not the assemblers. The winners would not be those who pump out generic cheap boxes but those who are able to build highly efficient mega-scale machines. In some ways, that would mean the future of the computer industry would look more like the mainframe era than the PC era.”

 

2020 Computing: Exceeding Human Limits. Stephen H. Muggleton.  Stephen H. Muggleton is in the Department of Computing and the Centre for Integrative Systems Biology at Imperial College London SW7 2BZ, UK.  Nature Issue 440  March, 2006. 

More and more, scientists are relying on automated processes to deal with increasing massive volumes of data.  Automation will continue to play a key role in data collection, storage of information, hypothesis formation, and experimentation.     Muggleton goes on to say that in the future of science, automation will be a fundamental element of testing, experimentation, and basic hypothesis that typically takes years to undertake.   During the twenty-first century,  Muggleton believes that “knowledge derived from large-scale scientific data could well pave the way to new technologies, ranging from personalized medicines to methods for dealing with and avoiding climate change.”   Scenario of Miniature Roboscientists.  “In 2006, laboratory robots were programmed to conduct experiments on yeast through a process known as ‘active learning’ to discriminate between contending hypothesis formulated by scientists.  The robot strategy that worked best outperformed humans given the same task.  By 2020, science developed the first microfluidic robot scientist,  “ which would combine active learning and autonomous experimentation with microfluidic technology.”  Scientists were already able to build miniaturized laboratories on a chip using microfluidics controlled and directed by a computer. Such chips contained miniature reaction chambers, ducts, gates, ionic pumps and reagent stores, and allowed for chemical synthesis and testing at high speed. (By 2020) this miniturizing created robot-scientist technology and reduced the experimental cycle time from hours to milliseconds. With microfluidic technology, each chemical reaction not only required less time to complete, it also required smaller quantities of input materials, with a higher expected yield. On such timescales, it becomes easier for scientists to reproduce new experiments and refute their hypotheses. Another process for the next-generation robot scientists is what is known as simulating cellular metabolism.  Here, an artificial cell based on a chemical Turing machine is used as an alternative to in vivo drug testing. The program running this machine would need to contain algorithms both for controlling the experiment and for conducting the cell simulation. It would represent a fundamental advance in the integration of computation with its environment.”

 

Scenarios on the Future of Biotechnology.Brian Sager.  Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 68 (2001) 109-129.  Sager works for Life Sciences Strategy Consulting, Stanford, CA. 

The time horizon of these scenarios is 2020.  The convergence of biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology is happening and it is unprecedented. The expansion of key industries to 2020 include agricultural biotechnology that will some day enable vaccines to eliminate disease; industrial biotechnology for more sustainable manufacturing; biological computing that integrates a future that may include wearable computers. Current trends imply four plausible scenarios. According to the author, the long-term future of biotechnology will be determined by two fundamental drivers--one technological, one social. The speed and extent of technology integration among the various sectors of biotech, as well as integration of biotech with nanotech and information technology, will be crucial to determining how society uses and perceives biotechnology  Public acceptance will shape both market demand and public policy. Scenario 1) Present Day.  Low public acceptance and low technology integration contribute to public confusion and low market penetration. This is a world where biotech products are rare and decisively manufactured. High public skepticism. Weak educational programs underlay biotech platforms. Ubiquitous confusion relegates and limits the appropriate use of biotech.  Scenario 2) Police State.  Even in the presence of high integration and significant market penetration, the public rejects biotech. Biotech products and processes have low market value and are poorly understood by the public.  Seamless, hidden integration of biotech in agriculture of biotech in agriculture, medical, engineering, industrial products and processes. High public distrust. Ubiquity of combination products forces the use of biotech, creating public resentment.  Scenario 3) Techno-Utopia   High public acceptance and high integration lead to society embracing biotech, with near-seamless integration of biotech into agricultural, medical, engineering, and industrial products and processes.  The industry vigorously and transparently makes known the origins of its products and processes to facilitate further market penetration.  Seamless, transparent integration of biotech in agriculture, medical, engineering, industrial products and processes.  High public enthusiasm. High level of public awareness of underlying biotech platforms.  Scenario 4) Grass Roots--Society embraces biotech even in the absence of significant industry integration--leading to a high value being placed on the relatively rare biotech goods and services that do reach the marketplace. The public pushes for continued expansion.  Biotech products are rare, yet conspicuously marketed.  High public enthusiasm. Strong educational and legislative efforts regarding the appropriate use of biotech. Public support for emerging ventures.

 

The Future of Transportation. Global Innovation Outlook 2.0 – IBM.  Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman and CEO, IBM Corporation. 

The Global Innovation Outlook provides a platform for candid and open conversations about important issues of our day among many contributors of innovative thinking. Contributors include IBM’s top researchers, consultants, and business leaders.  The Global Innovation Outlook also included a 180 outside experts.  The past decade has seen a huge migration to urban areas and a vast increase in global trade.  Congestion is creating logistical nightmares for emerging mega-cities, especially in booming regions of Asia and Latin America. Even modest sized communities are grappling with increasing levels of pollution, costly delays and overall frustration on the part of people and businesses constrained by lack of mobility.  Scenario of Transportation in 2020.  “The future of transportation portends to expand the options for access to goods and create competitive advantage.  By 2020 it was learned that while one might assume that increasing road capacity would reduce vehicular congestion, statistics showed that the opposite was in fact true. Effective relief for urban congestion isn’t about building more streets; it was about getting smarter in how they are used. More and more, urban areas applied a more holistic approach to understanding and managing urban traffic flows. In the future, the steady shrinking of sensing and computing devices makes it increasingly possible to gather and analyze massive amounts of traffic and transportation data. Cities would explore ways in which they can harness all the information these networks of sensors will deliver. In the future, participants at IBM stated that a real understanding will be gained of the many ways in which people, vehicles, freight and goods actually navigate the urban landscape. Only with this understanding would optimization techniques allow cities to better automate traffic flows based on real-time data rather than generalized predictions based on historic trends. By 2020,  pilot “road-charging” systems are able to adjust the cost of tolls and access based on peak congestion periods.  Unfortunately this penalizes the poor and middleclass workers who can’t necessarily adapt their travel patterns but also can’t afford higher peak charges. By 2020 western nations by reject existing paradigms of transportation and embrace entirely new approaches to manage the boom in personal vehicles. Governments provide incentives to greatly increase the number of alternative-energy cars on the road while focusing on R&D efforts and ways to produce low-cost alternative energy vehicles. That approach becomes a boon for the environment, and gives nations such as China or India an economic edge by allowing them to tap their huge internal markets before expanding to global opportunities in the still-green industry of “green” cars. Emerging economies aggressively pursue innovative reduction-oriented strategies like fractional ownership, the car-sharing model that is currently gaining a degree of momentum in some European and North American cities. In this model, individuals pay a monthly subscription cost or per-use fee for access to cars at various locations throughout a city. Members get to enjoy aspects of private ownership while the overall population of cars on the road decreases. Such approaches strike a balance between individual aspirations for car ownership and the systemic need for fewer cars. Public transit systems adopt  smart cards to provide a common currency across buses, trains, light-rail lines and ferries; some cards even work for taxis and parking lots. While this has certainly made it easier to move more swiftly and easily from mode to mode, there seems to be plenty of room to push such integration further through optimizing schedules and modes of transportation to meet individual passenger destination and time preferences. Information is integrated within the public transportation system’s own databases and then pushed  out to riders via mobile devices or street-side Kiosks.  The transit systems are linked not only within the city but alsoof an entire region or country.  Travel on demand becomes interconnected.”

 

Last Petrol-Car Auctioned.   BBC Book of the Future. www.bbc.co.uk 

The BBC asked readers and citizens what would the world look like in the year 2020?  As a result, the BBC received over one thousand submissions for the BBC Book of the Future.  Users were able to vote on these articles and the most popular, interesting, and profound were published.  Here is a scenario by Researcher Tony Digba, published on the BBC site January, 2003.  Scenario: Last Petrol-Car Auctioned.   “'Dateline: June 18, 2018 London UK. The last fossil fuel based car was auctioned by BMW for the princely sum of half a million EUROS. A successful bid was placed by Mr. John Smith of Horsham, Surrey. In a statement to the press Mr. John Smith, who made most of his fortune by investing in hydrogen-fuel cell technology companies in the late 1990's, said he will donate the BMW –Z20 SX to the car and motorcycle museum in Birmingham as a memento of an era gone past.'I smiled as I read the article in the newspaper and sipped at my coffee looking over the downcast skyline of Docklands, London from my apartment window. I reflected on events gone past and the effect on my life.The Lagos accord between the G9 and car manufacturers was 5 years ago. Five years that changed my life for the better. After major breakthroughs in hydrogen-cell technology car manufacturers had begin mass production of hydrogen-fuelled cars. The accord was made to halt all production of fossil-fuel vehicles (that's petrol cars to you and me!) by 2018.This accord was not without major repercussions for the oil-producing world. Demand for oil fell drastically and economies of oil-producing countries collapsed. Suddenly the Middle East was no longer a hot issue with the major superpowers.However, there is always a silver lining in every cloud. This was where I came in. A new element had been discovered to enhance hydrogen-cell fuel. This made all the difference to the efforts of the late 20th century. Unfortunately mining it was very difficult as it was 20km under the earths crust. A chance conversation between a geologist and myself led to a major discovery of whole strata of the stuff just 5km under the earth's surface in West Africa. The rest they say is history.Again I smiled as I looked at the article. Hydrogen-fuel and world peace in one breath. Time for a ride...”

 

After The Car  BBC Book of the Future. www.bbc.co.uk  

The British Broadcasting Company asked readers, citizens, and experts their opinion on a plausible future of the world in the year 2020.  As a result, one thousand submissions were received and many were published in the BBC Book of the Future.  Users were asked to vote on those articles that were most innovative.  The scenario “After the Car” discusses the future of fuel-cell technology applied to motor vehicles. Major countries will have
hydrogen fueled vehicles by the year 2020. According to India’s roadmap, one million hydrogen powered vehicles are expected to run on the country's roads by 2020.  With aggressive research, the hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle will significantly outperform other conventional engines. However, for the total cost of infrastructural changes,  a major MIT study concluded that it might be a better idea to focus on hybrids – vehicles powered by conventional  engines supplemented by  electric motors. In terms of greenhouse gases, fuel-cell vehicles might not be  significantly better than  diesel and gasoline hybrids. See the "MIT Laboratory for Energy and Environment"  Issue: January-March 2003.  Scenario: After the Car.  “The threats of global warming, and declining oil production, have forced a revolution in transport in 2020. There were riots in the streets, both by the environmental lobby and the road transport lobby, but public attitude is changing. Private car ownership is declining! There are still a few old petrol and diesel vehicles on the road. Their petrol is mixed with 20% bio-ethanol and their diesel is mixed with 40% vegetable oil but these fuels are too expensive. Improvements in battery technology have led to much better electric cars, but they still have to spend 15 minutes recharging for every hour of driving…There have been experiments with electric wires above or below motorways, but these are still at an early stage of development. The first hydrogen-powered, fuel cell private cars are now being sold but they are too expensive for most people. By 2020 hydrogen fuel cell buses have now been around for 10 years, and hydrogen fuel cells are also used in lorries. Minibuses now provide door-to-door transport like a taxi but carry many people at once on a route optimised and continuously updated by computer. These dial-a-ride minibuses have been instrumental in reducing congestion and removing people's need for cars…For longer journeys, most people take electric trains on land. 'Ekranoplans' have overtaken traditional planes as the most popular form of transport over sea. They fly at 1 to 5 metres above the surface of the ocean to reduce aerodynamic drag. Safety forbids them travelling faster than 200 mph in international water and 100 mph in inshore waters, so it takes them about 24 hours to cross the Atlantic. They are popular because they are affordable and comfortable, having a quarter the fuel consumption per passenger-mile of a traditional aircraft. High altitude aircraft are reserved for the super-rich and the military. The days of £10 flights are long gone. For journeys under 10 miles, many people walk or cycle. The roads are almost empty of cars, and therefore quiet and safe.”

 

Survival in 2020  BBC Book of the Future. www.bbc.co.uk

The British Broadcasting Company asked readers, citizens, and experts for their opinion on a plausible future of the world in the year 2020.  As a result, one thousand submissions were received and the best were published in the BBC Book of the Future.  Users were asked to vote on those articles that were most innovative.  The scenario, Survival in 2020 was written by Researcher Sim Egn, published on the BBC site January, 2003.  This scenario considers a worldwide shut down resulting from the trigger of solar flares. In late October and early November, 2003, scientists witnessed some of the largest solar flares ever recorded. During that time many of the scientific and communications satellites had to be temporarily shut down. A few suffered permanent damage. Astronauts on the International Space Station were endangered while in Sweden, 50,000 residents briefly lost power. A great article on solar flares is contained in Scientific American, “The Mysterious Origins of Solar Flares – New observations are beginning to reveal what triggers these huge explosions of the sun’ atmosphere.” April, 2006.
Scenario: Survival in 2020.  “There usually comes a time when the machines that humans create to serve them eventually fail, they become obsolete because their function is no longer useful to their original purpose, or they become decrepit through their usage; either way, time is unforgiving to the machines themselves and to their masters that will grow to become dependent on them…At first nobody could determine what had happened. We were literally left in the dark: not a single light was visible, silence. We speculated at first, that it was some kind of invasion, a new weapon that disabled all our systems and power. It turned out to be a freak solar flare, which caused an electro-magnetic pulse to surge through all the major electronic networks in the world.The world economy crashed almost immediately after the EMP hit our planet. Over a period of several days, there was rioting and looting in the streets, it seemed we had reverted to a primitive state. That was just the start of it - our very own systems began to fail.A technology had been developed 10 years earlier that enabled human beings to quickly interface with computers. It allowed users to communicate their thoughts and ideas onto the net wherever they were. This meant the death of the home computer, as information could be accessed and sent remotely using the neural-interface that was easily transplanted by way of injecting a nano-seed with pre-programmed growth into the brain.The nano-seed grows gradually over a period of months, connecting to existing biological neural pathways, until the host is completely able to access the central server. The technology allowed us to think as one, to share our thoughts and dreams, we were able to achieve things that we never thought were possible like world peace. Communication had seemed to reach the pinnacle of its evolution…The solar flare shorted the central server that we had grown so used to. We were forced to re-adapt to using primitive technologies; we were like fish out of water. For many it was too much, and they preferred to die rather than suffer the harsh reality that we faced. Death came quickly to those who wanted it, without the wake-up call of the central electronic mind to stimulate our minds, it was easy to fall asleep and remain so, should we have requested not to be woken up…For those that managed to survive, life was not easy, without the computer-aided multi-tasking that we had depended on to ease daily repetitive routines, simple tasks required huge amounts of concentration to perform. The nano-implant had displaced and made redundant areas of the brain normally assigned to such mundane activities.The worst weapon that could be used against you is one that you created yourself. Such was mankind's dependence on technologies, that a single incident could sever you from the very thing that you had come to rely upon. We are learning to be human again.”

 

Star-Tek Exploiting the Final Frontier: Counterspace Operations in 2025. A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025.  Lt Col Robert H. Zielinski,  Lt Col Robert M. Worley II,  Maj Douglas S. Black,  Maj Scott A. Henderson, Maj David C. Johnson.

By the year 2025, space will be of vital importance to the US.  This paper demonstrates the need for counterspace operations in space as vital to the US defense.  By 2025 the US gains superiority among other countries.  Space detecting and targeting capabilities will be of prime importance over the next two decades.   Scenario: Space and the National Interest.  “By 2025 the US and indeed the world is reliant on space systems.  Space superiority will be of vital importance. The future sees the rapid development of technology and placement of weapons in space. International space law rises as a recognized profession that develops the critical nature of space systems, space vulnerabilities, and the need to support pursuing space control and force application capabilities in space. . Past treaties such as Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963), the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, and the Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty (1972) did not resemble the treaties of 2025.  The US takes the initiative to call for space applications worldwide. By 2025 the US will have mustered the political and social will, in recognition of the absolute criticality of assured freedom of operation in space, to get over the sanctuary hurdle and place the necessary space force structure in place. The European Community, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Japan, and China all have deployed superior assets in space.  Early 21st century capabilities, demonstrated by multiple countries, were  a loud warning to the US to maintain its edge in space technology.  With the increase in technological efficiencies, the increase in satellite information vendors means organizations without space capability can purchase the end product from a wide variety of sources.  By 2025, however, there will be multiple threats to space-based systems.  Some will involve threats to the space segment, some the ground, and some the user. These threats come mostly from current conventional forces, space-based forces, or other advanced technology ground/air forces. These threats are extensions of the early 21st century technology, such as F-15 ASAT derivatives or the detonation of nuclear weapons in space. Other threats result from leaps in technology that enable realistic directed energy, kinetic energy, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) based weapons to be directed to individual targets.   For US commanders to maintain the high ground by 2025, the US was vigilant in its understanding of key technology areas, space detection, and tarketing of directed energy weapons.”

 

Inventing the Global Information Future  by Earnest J. Wilson III.  Mr. Wilson is director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park and Senior Advisor for the Global Information Infrastructure Commission.

This essay analyses four possible outcomes of the transition to tomorrow's global information society. Using scenario building methods the essay describes and analyses the pathways the transitions may take, in the hopes of guiding pro-active thinking about the most desirable information and communication strategies for developing countries. Earnest J. Wilson III

Scenario 1) CELL A: Monopoly and Fused – Low Rules, Low Competition: “This scenario provides a base scenario of low competition and low agreement on rules of the game. Almost all countries in this scenario still rely on monopoly suppliers for basic telephone services allowing limited competition in value added markets like cellular and paging. Domestically, most countries rhetorically commit to liberalization, and they seek modest regulatory and legislative reforms in their own domestic laws and institutions -- but the ownership, policy and regulatory structures too often remain fused in a single government ministry with only a few halting steps toward independent regulatory bodies. Internationally, negotiations on liberalization conclude successfully, but real operational results are much more limited. Governments are very hesitant to liberalize. There is considerable rhetorical commitment to liberalizing markets -- public and private sectors go on record committing themselves to greater openness, but they fail to implement. Both competition and agreement are relatively low in contrast to what they could be under a more favorable future. Not only are formal agreements left unenforced, but China and Russia's fast growing markets remain outside all international agreements altogether.
Driving Factors in this Scenario: This scenario shares many features with today's global situation. It is still the case that outside the United States about 96% of the $400 billion international telecommunications market comes from countries with a monopolistic supplier or a supplier with a substantially dominant market position. These conditions will not disappear overnight, and this de facto immobility drives the scenario. There remain substantial national restrictions on market access, and copyright and intellectual breaches and disagreements are rampant. There are sharp and enduring conflicts over how best to promote cultural diversity without violating trade norms. Formal WTO accords were reached, but in this scenario the apparent WTO successes prove to be hollow victories.

Scenario 2) Regulated Oligopoly, High Rules, Low Competition: 
The 'Regulated Oligopoly' world is one where LDC investment and trade stagnate, and regional blocs compete in a cartelized world of low competition but high agreement on conservative global rules. Countries, international organizations and firms reach global agreements on key issues such as IPR, interconnectivity, and standards, but market competitiveness is low as companies pursue conservative market strategies, consolidating current niches and resisting aggressive technological and commercial expansion. New IT investment rates fall, including direct foreign investment (DFI), and IT sales to developing countries rise only slowly. With less investment, technological innovation drops and costs rise for the final consumer. Driving Factors in this Scenario:
These conditions result from endogenous factors within the IT sector and exogenous factors beyond. Externally, the IT sector experiences hard shocks from an overall macroeconomic slowdown, an eruption of conflict in large unstable states like China and Russia, and the re-emergence of nationalism in Japan. These political changes increase investor worries and badly depress growth rates. The U.S. retreats further from global engagements. Internally, the sector experiences discontinuities in the historical rates at which firms move products from innovation through commercialization to amortizing investments. Moore's law and other 'constants' change as new and unexpected threshold points are reached. The capacity of IT firms to easily process and master convergence and competition peaks and commercial progress slows to a crawl. Consumers react to 'information overload' and cut back their IT purchases.

 

Scenario 3)”Wild West”: Free Market Chaos, Low Rules, High Competition.
This 'Wild West' scenario occurs when market competition explodes with very aggressive private sector activities, accompanied by the failure of the major actors to reach agreement on the global issues. "Free market chaos" rules. IT investment flows and sales remain vigorous, but mainly to OECD countries and to the most secure and reliable markets in developing areas. Some LDCs complain of being ignored, while others complain of 'predatory' behavior unrestrained by good business norms or effective international dispute resolution mechanisms. Developed countries and their firms complain about unreliable national rules and unfair expropriation or broken contracts in LDCs. International organizations like the WTO and World Bank lose clout and legitimacy.  Driving Factors in This Scenario: In a series of unanticipated defeats, in Geneva, Brussels, and Rome, in global meeting after global meeting, the world's nations fail to reach agreement on IT trade and investment, copyright, encryption and intellectual property. Agreements signed on paper are not implemented. Not only do the developing countries fail to achieve satisfaction in these forums, but there are serious splits among the governments of Japan, the EU and the United States. China, excluded from the WTO and with aggressive new leadership, retaliates by refusing to adhere to intellectual property rights and encourages their factories to produce pirated CDs. Canada and France toughen their stance by restricting cross-border movement of foreign content, leading to severe Franco-American and Franco-British conflicts that poison relations among these countries. Russia's political deterioration makes it more difficult to reach agreements. Private firms pursue vigorous competition strategies. At the same time, in the absence of formal intergovernmental agreements, private firms create de facto international standards (as did Microsoft), and through coalitions of companies that establish industry standards.

Scenario 4) CELL D: Competition and Coordination; High Rule, High Competition Summary Under these conditions countries seek ways to capture the benefits and meet the challenges of high competition and high rule agreement. The combination of substantial competition and widespread rule agreement accelerates capital investment, innovation, the creation of new Greenfield industries and the further radical restructuring of existing industries and the links and alliances among them. Customers get more choice, and better service, at lower prices. Driving Factors in This Scenario This scenario comes about through sustained, difficult and high profile negotiations in a variety of international forums, where the leading parties are able to reach agreement. Private industry associations accelerate agreement of rules governing internet standards and IT market access. The U.S. continues the leadership role staked out in the WTO talks. The G-7 governments reach common accords, and agree to reach out to the developing world in the design of the global information society. Nations in the developing world also exercise new independent leadership to advance their interests while seeking common cause with industrialized countries, and more liberal relations with private sector firms. Because there is political agreement on institutional, regulatory and legal frameworks, these private firms expand their investments.

 

A Space Renaissance in 2020 Robert Zimmerman, Atlantic Monthly,June, 2004.

Over the next couple of decades, we could well be moving to a world in which space activities are no longer limited to governments and big corporations. From private space launches to space tourism to the (increasingly likely) space elevator, Earth's orbit (and potentially beyond) could become as accessible as the deep ocean. Author Robert Zimmerman referred to this emerging era as a "space renaissance" -- a revolution in how people on Earth see and can use space resources. Because of changes in our culture, a stagnant and hide-bound field -- aerospace -- is ripe for transformation. Robert Zimmerman

Scenario: A World of Space Activity in 2020. “In this world, space is no longer managed by the traditional government-run agencies -- NASA, ESA, and the like. Space enthusiasts realized that just because something had been done one way for decades it is not a reason to continue in the same manner. In fact, it might very well be a reason not to, and instead to devise a new approach to the problem. Based on these patterns, the curtain was rising on a new technological renaissance, making the colonization of the solar system by 2020 not only possible, but very likely.”  Microsatellites:“By 2020, microsatellites become easier to build and cheaper. Much cheaper than putting people there, so  the number of private space ventures increases and turns a steady profit by bringing up small satellites for specific uses. These are no longer the  massive, multi-function birds meant to stay in orbit permanently. By 2020, they are small, cheap devices with a sensor kit and radio, meant to study a particular phenomenon before eventually burning up in the atmosphere. Microsats watch  watch urban growth patterns, monitor fisheries, look for early signs of drought or flooding, and even engage in open-source intelligence gathering.”   Improved Climate Monitoring:   “A particularly important use of satellites -- whether micro or macro -- is, by 2020, keeping a close watch on climate change. While both NASA and the ESA have climate-related satellite programs -- and China plans to have climate sats in orbit by 2012 -- private satellites provide additional datasets, including rapidly-assembled and launched sats to answer new questions. Moreover, they add to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, an international cooperative effort for monitoring the planet.  This becomes a space-UN by 2020.” Humanitarian Satellites:  “It never got as much attention as it deserved in 2005, but by 2020,  the growing use of satellite information dramatically helps humanitarian causes. Examples include support for relief in Darfur, support for the World Conservation Union, and the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters, which coordinates the provision of satellite data to assist in rescue and relief efforts globally. Nations come together to redirect satellite resources away from their primary missions, depending upon the global need at hand. Cheap private launch vehicles make it possible for humanitarian and conservation groups to have their own dedicated satellite networks.”  Other Planets:  “The biggest prize and surprize by 2020 - and the greatest challenge - is sending satellites or even landers to other planets in our solar system. By 2020, an elevator was constructed to reduce the energy costs of getting to high orbit (and, potentially, serve as a launch "slingshot"), but even so, the world is on the verge of a revolution in understanding of how planets function. Even in 2020, Mars receives the most attention, given the intriguing possibility of life. Universities innovate successful ideas for moving around the red planet, and improved technologies for detecting biological activity.”

 

When Content Takes the Back Seat:  Google Resarch Development Corporation.  Research Binder #67, November, 2004.

Scenario: When Content Takes the Back Seat.  “In this world, more content is produced by amateurs (which is clearly inevitable), and professional content changes as well. In its purest form, selling the platform instead of the content means advertising is removed from content, obsolescing the sort of advertiser-friendly lowest-common-denominator programming which had caused whole genres of media (say, television) to be dreck. Even in its less pure forms, platforms with advertising along the lines of Google-style targeted ads allows narrowcasted niche programs to erode the economic importance of lowest-common-denominator programming. In other words, this scenario discusses the creative destruction of the economics of media.  In this world, the platform becomes the moneymaker and changes the whole nature of the game, driving the market towards enabling the user's whims rather than enabling the advertiser's whims. It will not be an Adbusters-style utopia by any means.  In this scenario, advertisements become more subtle and more tightly targeted to the user's preferences--but there are far more volleys in the continuing war for the consumer's attention.”  Google Research Development Staff

 

The New Century Sucks And It Hasn't Even Started, 2099 Chuck Nix, In the book, Toxic Memes.

Talk to most people about radical longevity and they'll almost always raise the issue of population. While it may be a common observation, it's not a bad one: many critical implications fall out from it. A growing life-extended population would force us to deal with resource consumption. It also raises employment questions, both "how do younger generations work their way into positions of more authority if the older generation never has to give up those roles?" and "what do people do with themselves when they live so much longer?" What about housing? Taxes?  This scenario explores how much longer lives change the way people think.  It is the journal of a young man starting to realize what he has in front of him.  Chuck Nix

Scenario: The New Century Sucks and It Hasn't Even Started, 2099.  "I sit in the cafe at the top of the arcology, looking out over Seattle towards Mt. Rainier. I'm a good "end of the cen" boy, blood full of nano and brain hooked into the global net. So my genome's not top of the line my parents chose the best they could, at the time. I have worlds at my fingertips and a long life ahead of me.     That's the weird part. When I stop to think about it, think about just how much there is to see and how long I have to see it, I get dizzy. It's like my brain just didn't evolve to deal with the thought of a life lived in so many places and for such a long time. I get this urge to go find a hole somewhere to hide in, turn off my links, and live out a natural six-score-and-ten. I know at least one kid in my pod who did just that, about three weeks ago.    But then another part of me kicks in, and I see the kinds of options I have now, the kinds of opportunities I'll have that my parents never had, and their parents couldn't even imagine. There's another kid in my pod who talks about checking out Alpha Centauri like she's already bought tickets or something, she just can't imagine that such a thing wouldn't be possible sometime in her life. Or, as she sometimes says it, she just can't imagine that her life wouldn't be long enough to see that possibility. She's probably right, too.     I look around at the mass of people here in this arc, and around the world, content just to eat all day, sleep all night, and scrump with their virts when they get bored. That's not the world I want to live in. If my only choices are running away and hiding  in some Isolate hole or in deep space, same difference or becoming a barely-sentient cow... well, then I need to find another choice, don't I?”

 

Exploring the Future of the Digital Divide through Ethnographic Futures Research   Matthew M. Michell. Dr. Mitchell currently serves as the Program Development Coordinator for Washington State University's Center to Bridge the Digital Divide and as the Deputy Director for the Network for Capacity Building and Knowledge Exchange in the Telecommunications Sector of Africa.  His research focus includes eLearning, social justice in information societies, ICT-enabled economic development, and community leadership.

How will the digital age impact the future of the have have-not gap?  The impacts of the digital divide are explored by te Program Development Coordinator for Washington State University.  The study lists groupings of scenarios to explore trends, impacts, and driving forces. Matthew M. Mitchell

Optimistic Scenarios: “While the optimistic scenarios differed from one another to varying degrees, they included the following common aspects.  First, the essential role of information and the infrastructures designed to collect, process, and distribute it will be netter understood by all members of society, especially those who have the power to control access to ICT.  As a result of this improved understanding, the optimistic scenarios included more effective efforts to increase access and thus close the digital divide. Optimistically, as the people of Washington State realize the significant intertwining of ICT with nearly every dimension of society, a greater awareness will develop that will lead to ICTs being appropriately and adequately applied. Without this awareness, the pessimistic scenario becomes more probable.”  Pessimistic Scenarios: “The pessimistic scenarios were characterized by an assumption that ICT is not having and will not have a positive impact on Washington's sociocultural system.  Poor decisions made by leaders in government, business, and the community will manifest this dearth of concern and awareness.  Pessimistically, the digital divide will expand in oth its nature and its extent.  The unintended consequence of the digital divide's expansion will be the intensification of social and economic injustices.” Most Probable Scenarios: “The scenarios described as being the most probable generally acknowledged the persistence of the digital divide as a social problem.  Most interviewees believed that there will be some progress made in ameliorating the digital divide; however, existing social and economic injustices will continue to be exacerbated by the exclusionary tendencies of a technological society driven by greed and self-interest.  The success made in bridging the digital divide will primarily be the product of concerned individuals and community groups motivated to improve social conditions. However, these community efforts to solve the digital divide will lack the necessary resources to significantly assert social and economic reflrms that will insure the provision of justice for all.”

 

IBM Scenarios of Networked Computing IBM Almaden site.  www. almaden.ibm.com Jean Paul Jacob. IBM is a leading provider of financing and asset management services to companies selling or acquiring IT related products or services. It is at the help of research innovation on technologies that product leading-edge solutions.  IBM develops, markets and delivers leading chip technologies and services.

"The idea of highly networked computing allows us some interesting scenarios of the future. These examples are becoming the present more quickly than you think."  The first scenario, Massification and Personalization means business or compaies will use computers to expand for a larger number of people while customizing; the second scenario, Digital Services covers the parallels of "bits" for the "atom". In the future, digital services will be pervasive. In the third scenario, Telematics, continuous speech recognition in many different shapes and forms will be ubiquitous.  Infotainment is a scenario of a fantasy machine.

Scenario One: Massification with Personalization:  “Massification means that in 2020, businesses or companies will use computers to expand their customer base and provide more services and products for a larger number of people, using informatics. At the same time, informatics will permit each buyer to feel that he or she is the only user of the service or product. This is personalization. Your product or service will seem to be tailored for your individual needs. Today American Airlines flies 70 million passengers a year. This presents a tremendous scheduling problem which requires substantial computing power. Despite this large number of passengers, each passenger is able to choose his or her itinerary, seat, meal and movie/video. Federal Express delivers about 2 million parcels a day. However, each sender is able to track by telephone or by computer the whereabouts of his or her parcel.”   Scenario Two: Digital Services: “With increasing digital services, we are substituting the "bit" for the "atom" and computing for the physical. Digital services will be pervasive. More books and manuals will be stored and distributed digitally. We are seeing the beginning of it now and good examples are multimedia encyclopedias on CDs and digital libraries. The delivery of magazines and news will be done digitally through network or CD-ROMs. You can electronically select the articles of interest to you or ask an intelligent agent for it. This scenario blends with massification with personalization.  For example, it will be possible to have more personalized news. Some digital services include intelligent agents that form a new class of software which can assist people, and act on their behalf.”  Scenario Three: Telematics:  “IBM Researchers have combined a cellular "flip" phone with a small computer which projects its display on the inside of its mirrored cover.The JPC-2K is a fantasy machine, the PC of the Year 2000, designed by Dr Jean Paul Jacob. This very advanced electronic notepad/book is portable, digitally cellular, and serves as an information processor and provider, entertainment center (providing infotainment), and a training/education tool. Some features of the future: continuous speech recognition, paperlike interfaces, visual programming, digital cellular, speech synthesis,  personalized news,  intelligent agents,  video: TV or conferencing.”

 

Wireless Foresight - Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015  “ This project has been initiated by WIreless KTH, a research and educational center formed by the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in cooperation with industry. See the Wireless Foresight website for the final report.

"We are entering exciting times.  After the decade of the Internet and the cell-phone changed our lives and working habits, these two technologies are about to merge.  At the same time, the industry is going though one of its worst crisis ever.  At this crossroads, the future can take any direction. Up or down. Success or failure.  The Wireless Scenario Project deals with the state of the wireless industry in 2015 and presents four scenarios of the future.  Royal Institute of Technology

These four scenarios are based on a set of fundamental trends shaping the development of the wireless world.  Some of these trends include:  Trend 1. Development will be more user driven: Up until today it can be argued that vendors and technology have driven the wireless development. This will probably change. The scenarios differ according to the extent the development is user driven and to what segments that are most important drivers.  Trend 2. User mobility will increase:  In the future we will probably travel more and longer and we will spend more time commuting. The scenarios vary according to how fast traveling will increase and by means of transportation.   Trend 3. The service and application market will grow:  The future market for wireless services will probably be much larger than today, consisting of both complex and basic services. The scenarios differ along a dimension ranging from an abundance of different services and service types to rather few.  Trend 4. User security, integrity, and privacy will become more important: Guaranteeing security, integrity, and privacy is an important problem facing industry. The difficulty and complexity of this issue suggests that it might not be solved by 2015. The scenarios differ according to whether these issues are solved or not.  Trend 5. Real or perceived health problems due to radiation will become more important:  A big threat to the industry is health problems, real or perceived, due to radiation from devices etc. Research might indicate that the radiation in fact is dangerous. The scenarios are differentiated according to how big a problem these health issues are.  Trend 6. Environmental issues will become more important:  The trend towards increasing environmental awareness will continue. Two areas of special importance are: energy consumption and potentially detrimental substances used in e.g. terminal cases. The scenarios vary in terms of how big these problems are.  Trend 7. Spectrum will become an increasingly scarce resource: Today, most of the spectrum is locked-in by legacy users, e.g. operators, the military and television broadcasters. The shortage is forcing operators to build unnecessary expen-sive infrastructure. Growing usage will aggravate this problem. The scenarios vary according to how much spectrum that is released and whether for licensed use.  Trend 8. The wireless industry will grow: All scenarios are based on the assumption that the wireless communications industry will grow during the coming decade, both in size and scope. The question is how fast. Royal Institute of Technology Studies

 

Scenario 1:Wireless  Explosion, Creative Destruction
“Wireless applications and services are a huge success in 2015, and in a rapidly transforming industry the old market leaders lost their dominant positions. The old telco world with closed, vertically integrated solutions gave way to layered, open architectures based on IP (Internet Protocol). The datacom industry won the market battle. However, in a large but maturing industry, profit margins were squeezed and the datacom winners could never really leverage their market power.

Users were very active and drove this development towards an open IP world with skyrocketing traffic and an abundance of applications. They preferred choice over convenience and didn’t accept being locked-in to corporate bundles. Governments released a lot of new unlicensed spectrum, undermining operator dominance and triggering a do-it-yourself wireless movement. The Open Source movement, down-loading of music and other copyrighted material, enforced these changes in consumer attitudes and the values of the underground culture gradually became mainstream. Feeling this value shift, governments were more and more reluctant to enforce restrictive IPR (Intellectual Property Rights), further undermining profit margins.

The wireless success changed peoples’ way of work and lifestyle. Being always connected with context sensitive information, a growing part of the knowledge work force could spend most of their time on the move, in meetings or traveling between meetings. Globalization continued and with it the growing trends of traveling and commuting.

Rapidly growing industry: The economic downturn in the early years of the century slowed industry growth for a few years. However, the rapid technological development within the communication and information technology industries continued and essentially all markets and industry segments experienced a more or less continuous growth.

Industry fragmentation – market leaders losing hegemony: The incumbent players consolidated but in a maturing industry profits were eroding as the products became low-margin commodities. Independent consumers under-mined IPR-enforcement. Open Source software and do-it-yourself wireless access further undermined corporate hegemony. The dominant market leaders did not vanish but the rapid technological development was as ruthless in turning profitable products into low-margin commodities as it earlier had been in creating these markets. Industry fragmentation and vertical disintegration accelerated when compa-nies became more and more specialized. When performance of any given technologi-cal function was good enough, design and manufacturing knowledge was no longer a critical asset and modularization set in. As a consequence, this part of the market split into several new markets.

Debt burdened operators losing market dominance: When wireless data started, traditional operators first tried to offer closed telco style services and developed in-house wireless portals. Seamless roaming (as in the voice GSM-world) was very hard to accomplish with wireless data over a number of different underlying networks. The operators failed. The major blow to operator dominance was the rise of unlicensed spectrum and WLANs. By keeping high prices for wireless data, operators opened a market for WISPs based on WLANs.

Telco equipment and terminal vendors lose to datacom attackers: Traditional telco equipment vendors failed in responding to all disruptive innovations in a rapidly changing marketplace. They were adapted to a business model built on selling extremely expensive systems to a few very demanding operators and they were dragged down together with their traditional customers. When the market fragmen-ted, attackers captured emerging sub-markets such as base-stations. Telco terminal vendors lost market power when the commoditization of the market occurred, dominated by open IP access. The critical telco knowledge embedded in the radio and CODEC (coding and decoding) software was over time commoditized by attackers from the NICs, and the datacom industry.

An explosion in services and applications: In the industrial countries as well as in the most successful NICs, cellular systems are complemented with a large number of other systems (e.g. ad hoc networks, WLAN access, satellites, high altitude platforms). Most problems concerning seamless roaming, system integration etc. have gradually been solved. Appetite for wireless applications and services is very high and once the new geographical positioning infra-structure was in place, the number of location aware applications and services grew rapidly. Wireless services are used by everyone and in all segments.

Spectrum – abundant release for unlicensed bands: During 2005-2010, governments released significant chunks of new spectrum. With much more available spectrum, traffic prices fell rapidly and the dominance of the incumbent operators were reduced. Unlicensed spectrum usage was a huge success. The unlicensed bands drove rapid innovation of cheap install-it-yourself »black-box« access points that can double as multi-band base stations.
Batteries and complexity management no show-stoppers: The lifetime of batteries for mobile terminals has increased dramatically since the turn of the century. Batteries are now used on a large scale for an enormous number of services and applications, which has lead to very large production volumes and price drop for these new energy sources.”

Scenario 2: Slow Motion
“The wireless world has developed slowly since the turn of the century. The global economic recession during the first decade in combination with real and perceived health problems due to radiation from wireless devices deeply affected the wireless industry. Even though the demand for mobile services has increased, the service explosion that many people envisaged never materialized. The wireless industry has gone through substantial change. Consolidation has increased and the number of companies in each market has been reduced. Technological development has slowed down and profit margins have decreased substantially. The industry has matured. The big NICs, for example China, India, and Russia, are catching up faster than expected.

Economic recession and 3G fiasco: The global economic downturn that started in 2001 turned into a large scale economic recession. The telecom, computer, and media industries were severely affected. It became really bad when a large European operator went bankrupt. This spread very quickly to other operators and eventually to vendors and service providers. Several large telecom actors disappeared and those that survived made massive cuts and saw drastically reduced margins. Many 3G commitments were re-negotiated. Some networks were cancelled and many were merged, resulting in only one or two net-works per country. In many rural areas there is still no 3G coverage.

Health problems from radiation: The long-term studies of how radiation affects humans, presented around 2005, still have a negative impact on industry. The results were clear and most experts agreed that wireless devices, when heavily used, would injure the brain due to radiation from the transmitter. In the beginning, the telco industry argued that the results were inconclusive, but eventually adopted a proactive strategy and managed to avoid total disaster by suggesting strict regulation of radiation levels and by redesigning their products. Usage is still affected, even though most problems are solved.

Security a problem still waiting to be solved: The problem of hacking and virus creation is still significant. Most security codes are quite easily broken and viruses are easily spread in the wireless networks. The problems increased when data services were introduced in the updated 2G systems and were further accentuated with the introduction of 3G. Many people feel that they cannot trust electronic transactions and are seldom willing to e-shop. Nor do they feel secure when contacting, for instance, the government with sensitive information.

The mobile lifestyle loses ground: In the Western world and in Japan the mobile lifestyle came to a halt during the first decade of the century. Many people, especially young families, moved from the cities to smaller communities. Telecommuting, working from home or in local offices became increasingly popular. The result is that fewer people travel long distances to work. One important driver behind this shift is the increasing environmental awareness. Environmental groups also started to campaign for decreased usage of communication devices. For some time, usage was negatively affected but eventually industry was able to handle this issue by significantly reducing the power consumption in equipment and devices.

No service explosion: Despite the hype in the beginning of the century, the mobile service market has experienced a slow growth. Most services used by consumers are still quite simple, focusing on satisfying basic communication and information needs. Many consumers are simply not prepared to pay for advanced services at the price they are offered. Their demands are quite like the ones they had around the turn of the century.

Wireless telecommunication is a mature industry: Telecom has become a mature industry that has gone through consolidation and restructuring. The technological development has slowed down considerably and profit margins in all sectors have decreased substantially. Many platforms, solutions, and components are still designed according to closed and incompatible standards protected by patents. Concentration has increased and the number of players in each market is rather few. Still their profit margins are generally very low.

The big NICs catching up after a slow start:  The slow development in the Western world and in Japan in the first half of the 2000s was reinforced by problems in the big NICs (China, India, Russia, etc.). However, around 2010 the situation had improved substantially in many of these countries. Investment in infrastructure started to increase, giving the vendors a chance to recover some of their declining sales. The big NICs are now by far the most important markets for systems and terminal vendors. Moreover, there are now important global players such as operators, vendors, and service providers based in these countries.
Power consumption and complexity management as technical limitations: Despite large research efforts on new battery technology, no significant progress has been made. Many wireless applications are almost impossible to run when the terminal is on battery power and even the simple 2.5G handsets have to be recharged after downloading a new song, video-clip, or after a teleconference session. Despite the slow development, several different types of systems exist. Cellular systems of different generations coexist with other types of systems (WLANs, PANs, broad-casting etc.). The problems of managing this complexity are still not solved.”

 

Scenario 3. Rediscovering Harmony
“Balance in life became the dominating value in most industrialized nations where material abundance (and security) could be taken for granted. These are post materialistic times where human and environmental needs are in focus. The wireless industry is experiencing a difficult dilemma: refocus or die! There are fewer service and application providers than predicted around 2000, but the market is not completely dry. The big hurdle is to refocus and rethink business models, offerings, and brand on a market with active and demanding consumers categorized by numerous sub-cultures with individual needs. We see many local operators and service providers that have emerged as a result of the trend to move out of the crammed cities and forming smaller, local communities where people live and work. At the same time there are a few global operators providing global communication for the increasing number of people traveling longer and more often for pleasure, and for smaller but more price insensitive segments.
A sustainable society in balance with itself:The industrialized world is based on the idea of a sustainable lifestyle where friends, family, and the environment are key elements. The high-paced lifestyle that domina-ted the western world in the closing decades of the last century finally went out of control. The consumers became more and more indifferent to brands and commercial messages and no longer accepted companies ignoring ethics, environment, human needs, and product quality. As a result, we saw a number of movements that combined a more sustainable and human perspective on society with a strong individual and social focus. To consider the environment and human needs had become valuable in the marketplace.

Two market segments driving the development : The move towards the new lifestyle started in two segments: Moklofs (Mobile Kids with Lots of Friends) and Elders. The Moklofs are strongly focused on entertainment and messaging services. They participate in communities (both local and global) and are very global in their ways of thinking. This segment is open-minded towards new technologies but they don’t believe smart marketers trying to claim that they will get a new life by buying the latest gizmo. Living in a world of tribes with many lifestyles, they want to express their affiliation with clothes, looks, and stuff they use. However, after the mad era around 2000, the tribes got extremely wary of being exploited. The Elders place high demands on usability and quality of service and they are not afraid of letting their voice be heard. Communicating with the family while on the move or when living apart has turned out to be very important. Healthcare is another important segment, allowing people to check up on their health wherever they are.

Less but more travel: People are moving out of the crammed cities and into smaller and cleaner local communities in the suburbs or countryside. The lifestyle trend is that of working and living in small, local and very social communities. In the cities, the public transporta-tion systems were upgraded while the amount of cars decreased. This is due to harder environmental laws and political decisions to turn more of the city areas into car free zones. Leisure travel is the only form of travel that is increasing all over the world. The main effect of this is a demand for more environmentally friendly ways to travel, but also a need for global communication possibilities.

A few clouds in the sky: Health risks and integrity problems are widely debated, but it is the telco industry’s impact on the environment that people are most concerned with. Especially brominated flame retardants used in electronic equipment has turned out to be damaging to both environment and humans. Lower power consumption for terminals and infrastructure is another issue that consumers want to see improved. The perceived health threats (real or not) are hard to battle, forcing the telco industry and governments to find new ways of restoring public trust in wireless technology.

The industry dilemma – refocus or die:  After the initial wave of excitement over the new communication possibilities with 3G, the pace of development slowed down. This left the telco industry confused. The main reason was the industry’s inability to adjust to the mass market’s new attitudes and values. The industry is currently regrouping and adjusting to the new situation. Some players realize this and are adjusting their business models and offerings to the new fragmented marketplace and are as a result highly successful. Other companies failed to understand the new environment (and that they need to change) and are thus having a hard time surviving. The big hurdle is to manage to refocus and rethink business models, offerings, and brand.
Peer-to-peer applications and services a hit. Despite the new market focus there is still a demand for wireless services but the main difference is that the mass market is selective in terms of what kind of information is being received, and when it is delivered. A new market has gradually emerged where personalized and very specific types of services are successful. Examples are: personal (peer-to-peer) communication services, multi-media messaging, personal location based services supporting social interaction, and devices and services forming »family intra-nets«. The demand for peer-to-peer technology has lead to a fierce debate on how to solve the problems with IPRs, where the content providers feel that the operators don’t take responsibility for how their networks are being used, while the operators argue that they are simply providing the infrastructure for communication.”

 

Scenario 4. Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments
“Through consolidation and mergers, large companies, known as moguls, have come to dominate the market. A mogul is a descendant of the early, big information technol-ogy or media companies that managed to survive the crises of the first decade of the 2000s. These (few) grew and expanded outside their original business segments, for instance from being only a systems software manufacturer a company became a big content provider and also started manufacturing devices aimed specifically at using their services. Smaller players were often bought or put out of business due to the dominant position of the big companies. The moguls, together with the world’s governments exert substantial and active control over the information flow and the communication industries. The companies and government are working against the chaotic freedom that used to characterize the early Internet, and the purpose is to protect society and individuals from various unwanted actors and behavior. Examples are: cyber crime, international terrorism, protecting content owners and others from illegal copying of software, music, movies etc. and battling other forms of information use and abuse. The moguls are supported by government since they are seen as more easily monitored. Anonymity on the Net is no longer possible. All users are automatically identified and registered when acting on the Net.

The world is however not an anti-democratic society where the moguls and govern-ments use the Net and the information to gain power and ultimately dictatorship, even though many people fear that this might be the case. Counter- and freedom movements do exist despite heavy measures against them by governments and large corporations alike.

Moguls and governments. In each market segment there are now only one or two totally dominant market leaders. Some market leaders have been able to expand their market power into other areas. Users like these big companies because they feel they can trust them and their products fulfill their needs. There are also no longer any problems with compatibility of software and hardware as there is basically only one choice. Governments like the big companies since they think they can control them. To some extent, the moguls agree to this control, as long as the governments are doing what the moguls want.

Security problems of the 2000s solved: Governments and industries took strong measures against the security problems of the early 2000’s. In 2007, the first »secured devices« where introduced by one of the major hardware and software developers. These devices relied on new, »unbreakable« encryption technologies, and required a personal certificate, together with user biometrics, for use. At the same time it contained circuitry for monitoring the traffic and sending information on possibly unapproved traffic directly to the applicable government agencies.

Moguls in control and slow development in the NICs:  Network effects, economics of scale, and successful enforcing of Intellectual Property Rights created a new global economy with large players becoming even larger, resulting in a winner-take-all society. The US government abandoned the anti-trust laws of earlier centuries allowing already big players from America to grow huge on the truly global market. Even though there were quite a few positive signs in the big NICs (e.g. China, India, and Russia) in the early years of the century, their difficulties continued. Financial problems haunted Russia with frequent devaluations of the currency and the integration of China into the world economy slowed down due to political instability.

Incumbent telco players keep control of the market.  With traditional mobile operators dominating over new actors, the strategic success factor proved to be brand and customer ownership. The leading European operators managed to survive the financial problems in the early 2000s through debt restructuring together with government rescue packages and a mild regulatory regime, which left them as monopoly players. Relieved of heavy debts and govern-ment demands for rapid 3G investments in rural areas, the operators could generate just enough cash-flow to continue their 3G investments but at a slower speed.

Applications and services focus on convenience for the user:  Users keep all their information stored at their favorite big company portal, easily accessible from anywhere, at any time. There are numerous applications and services available, but most users prefer the comfortable convenience of one-stop-solutions. Wireless devices are used for payments, to get profiled advertisements based on geographical location, secure transactions of money between peers and so on.

No free airwaves: Governments have been very slow to release new spectrum during the last decade. Unlicensed spectrum use is heavily limited by extremely low upper limits of emitted power. As the only spectrum owners for wireless, mobile operators remain the dominant gate-keepers in the industry.

Somewhat of a complex world: Managing the growing complexity of a varied wireless world has been a problem. With many diverse types of wireless technologies in the Western world and Japan (such as GSM and iMode) there have been problems of seamless integration between standards and technologies.”

 

The Future of Information Management   R. Todd Stephens, Ph.D. The Data Administration Newsletter (TDAN.com) Robert S. Seiner - Publisher.  Copyright 1997-2004. The Data Admnistration Newsletter.

Can the future of information management be defined? Is it possible for any of us to say where information technology will be heading in the next 10 years?  The obvious answer is no, however, it may be possible to paint an image of the future that is vastly different from what we presently see.  This article takes a look at the future of information management by looking at the past in order to establish a foundation for the future.  The article then reviews the waves of information; two of which are already upon us.  Finally, there is a discussion of specific scenarios of the future and how one's job will be impacted in the next few years. R. Todd Stephens

Scenario: 2012: Death of the Generalist.

“Are you a generalist or a specialist? This scenario examines the skills that will be required in the future.  According to Stephen's scenario, the death of the generalist by 2012 opens the door for a high performance worker and specialist.  The workers of 2012 will have a collection of attributes that should be reviewed in detail.  First, this person is a subject matter expert is some field where they are the best in the field.  What does best in the field mean?  In 2005, you can be the best in your department in some skill, be it presentations, writing, metadata, java, quality assurance, or just about any skill on the books.  We get away with this due to the organizational walls we build to keep more experienced and knowledgeable resources at bay.  This isn’t anything new; we have used the organizational walls to our benefit for 100’s of years.  But, those days are numbered.  By 2012,   price and availability still plays a role in the new economy but they will only soften the blow.  The high performance worker in 2012  is a knowledge creator, integrator, utilizes online collaboration to the fullest, uses intellect and available intellectual assets to create and/or enhance products, services, and processes, requires a high level of autonomy and flexibility; an associate, not a subordinate.  These characteristics establish the foundation for the next wave or age. from 2012 - 2030.  The age of knowledge was happening back in 2005  and society was not prepared.  Over the centiries, we  walked off the farm, we walked out of the factory, and by 2005, we will soon wave goodbye to the cubical and the hierarchal structures that it represents. By 2012, the transformation into a knowledge based business model takes place so the role of metadata plays a key role in the new environment.  A whole new focus on metada literally changes the way people viewthe grand discipline. In the future, it is all about free-agency. It is a new world where skills are the market force. Globalization continues at a higher pace than we have ever seen. In the world of work, people will define themselves and his/her work as a "unique value proposition" in a global economy. That will be the only way to survive in the future.” 

 

Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios  Jerry Glenn and Theodore Gordon.  American Council for the United Nations University-- Millennium Project.  Written in 2003 based on studies conducted in 2000-03.  See Cahapter 5 on this CD for more details.

The four scenarios included in this subchapter are part of the study Future S&T Management Policy Issues––2025 Global Scenarios detailed in Chapter 5 on this CD.

Scenario 1: S&T Develops a Mind of Its Own:  “In this world, businesses and universities that used the early brain-computer interfaces prospered and stimulated more R&D. Good for NGOs and governments.  The forces behind Moore’s law not only accelerated computer capacity, these forces also accelerated all phenomena connected to computers.  As a result, many remote villages in the poorest countries have cyberspace access for tele-education, tele-work, tele-medicine, tele-commerce, and tele-nearly-anything.  By 2025, nearly 70% of the world was connected via TEF and 44% wore some form of CyberNow (glasses) at least once a week.   TEF-CyberNow went far beyond those crude connections of text and images of the World WIde Web by becoming a continuous virtual reality, as user-friendly as breathing. Between 2010 and 2015 the massive international S&T cooperative research program on human-computer intelligence was initiated by the largest research transinstitution in history (composed of governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and international organizations). It was named the Brain Trans-science Service (BTS). This identified the factors and systems that ultimately enhanced human-machine collective intelligence.   TEF and CyberNow provided the basis for the best educational programming the world could make.  Students were able to go from   a state of relative ignorance to the cutting edge of the field  These educational systems diagnosed cognitive difficulties via analysis of inquiry patterns and automatically altered the curriculum.  Computers had the same computational capacity as the human brain and were able to simulate much of the neural activity of an entire human brain.  As intelligence increased, science and technology accelerated, which in turn further accelerated collective intelligence.  In this world, other technologies developed, such as genetically modified foods which accounted for easily 50% of the world’s food because nanotechnology and bio-engineering merged—creating all kinds of organic compounds that were considered safe.   By 2025, the world environment computer simulation (WECS)—from cloud tops to under the sea—was integrated with the Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) and was publicly accessible so that anyone could know who was polluting.  Although religious and political hierarchies still had much ceremonial control and many social maintenance responsibilities, the real growth of the human mind, technologies, and actions that were building the future seemed   far too complex, self-organized, and creative    to be understood by older institutions.  The full scenario is presented in Chapter 5 on this CD.

Scenario 2: The World Wakes Up:  “The murder of 25 million people over a three-month period in 2021 in the major population areas around the world by a self-proclaimed Agent of God (AOG) finally woke up the world to the realization that an individual acting alone could create and use a weapon of mass destruction.  This phenomenon became known as SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive). With the acceleration of scientific understandings and miniaturization of technology, fewer and fewer people became able to destroy more and more.   The first step that led to the new S&T global control systems began with a series of meetings of eminent persons. They decided how to control science and technology and limit access to developments that could be applied to SIMAD.   By 2025, the Security Council had authorized intervention to terminate lines of scientific inquiry in viral modification, nanoweapons, and potentially runaway particle physics experiments. Each time, the research lab in question decided to come into ISTO compliance prior to the need for international enforcement.  Information obtained through ISTO helped societies based on complex technological systems to become less vulnerable.  Consequently, the speed of S&T slowed due to the increased regulation of everything from genetically modified organisms to nanotechnology.  Yet, progress was still so fast that the media were always full of amazing innovations in medicine, transportation, and education that had vastly improved general human welfare over the last 25 years.   The positive trends in 2025 were global assessments of educational curricula that led to improved learning. Every jurisdiction, every state and town, every ethnic group thought that its approach to education was correct and its right to teach its version of truth inviolable. SIMAD changed that. Global guidelines brought more rigorous thinking to the design of curricula. Because nearly all information and educational systems were constantly subject to international cross-referencing and feedback, information accuracy helped reduce intolerance.  With more precise information, and with less prejudicial misinformation arising from ignorance and frustrations from injustice, more room was made for the expression of altruistic ideals. The international focus on human security—freedom from fear—as the new organizing principle for world affairs helped strategic cooperation to improve living conditions.”   The full scenario is presented in Chapter 5 on this CD.

Scenario 3: Please Turn Off the Spigot:  “From the perspective of Time Magazine's Man of the Year: (The full scenario is presented in Chapter 5 on this CD) "When science was “hot", biotechnology was giving us one breakthrough after another. The genetic origins of behavior were being articulated, and biotech was being used to build new kinds of weapons of mass destruction. Biodiversity suffered from aggressive marketing of genetically altered, patented varieties. Cognitive sciences were moving ahead; there was much greater insight into functioning of the brain but without much improvement in decisionmaking. Computers were gaining awareness. S&T was globalizing; scientists in poor countries were conducting much of the leading-edge research since many of the frontier projects were inexpensive and could be performed in small labs. In addition, vastly improved communications made it quite practical for geographically dispersed teams to function efficiently.Applied nanotechnology was being used in products and in labs to perform quantum feats of what would have been called magic only two decades earlier.  But many new scientific discoveries were being distorted from their original intent deliberately or inadvertently, and these “slip-ups” provided, in the end, new means for killing large numbers of people. Thus,  the International Commission of Science was finally formed in 2019. This Commission was designed to review controversial research proposals, establish risk limits, issue permits for risky experimentation, and indict scientists who stepped over the bounds established by the commission. The Commission evolved through a corruption phase when my slogan reached around the world—on Internet sites, in public hearings, in parliaments. “Everywhere the air stinks from corruption. The management of science has failed, give us management of science.”  The anti-corruption strategies eventually took hold but only after some unforgiving investigations and prosecutions on a global scale.   In any event,  I remain optimistic that science can achieve its promise and that with luck and planning we can all survive its unintentional mistakes.”

Jacobo Minskov
December 31, 2025

Scenario 4:  Backlash:  “Scientists carried signs in protest at the Jakarta World Summit on Science and Technology in 2015. The principal topic of discussion was the need to institute some sort of world control over the directions of science and technology. Those arguing for regulation of science listed physical threats such as the sorcerer’s apprentice syndrome: self-replicating nanotechnology overrunning the planet.  They also argued about the missed opportunities for something like a Manhattan Project on cheap, efficient, environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and non-fossil energy sources, or one on simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and delivery systems to treat widespread diseases, or a project on improved sources and efficiency of water use.  The resolution known as the Principles of Inviolability of Science (or simply “Principles”) recognized the autonomy of science and charged the disciplines with the responsibility of determining the “line in the sand” that defined acceptable risks in their fields.  In this scenario, science blossomed under the Principles.   Artificial intelligence research teams produce computers that claimed to be superior to human reasoning.  But about five years into this idealized world of accelerated science, it became apparent that the Principles had a dark side. The golden age of science proved to be a mixture of good, bad, and illusion. It started as isolated criticism by intellectuals and grew to a river of doubt by populations in general.  Innovation was throttled because no one was sure whether they would be stepping over some fuzzy line of law or propriety with leading-edge research. When the spark of discovery dimmed, economies slowed, and innovations that saw the light of day became more proprietary than ever. Horizons shrank and goals became diminished. As the global economy wound down, poverty rose and the safety zone of reduced risk that global regulation was supposed to provide proved not to be safe at all.  People asked, What’s next?”  (The full text of this scenario is contained in Chapter 5 of this CD)

 

Machines Will Be Smarter Than We Are.  Robert E. Newnham, a materials scientist at Pennsylvania State University. Robert E. Newnham is Alcoa Professor Emeritus of Solid State Science at the Pennsylvania State University. He served as Chairman of the Solid State Science program for 18 years.  1997 Buessem Award Recipient.  Dr. Mark Humphrys, University of Edinburgh. New Scientist Magazine, June, 2003.  Otis Port, senior writer, Business Week.

Superbrains born of silicon will change everything. Previously intractable problems in science, engineering, and medicine will be a snap. Robots will rapidly displace humans from factories and farms.

Scenario in the 21st Century in 2050: Machines Will Be Smarter Than We Are:   In the era of 1960 – 2004, computers showed no signs of intelligence because they were less complex than the brain of an earthworm.  Then in the year 2007, Stephen W. Hawking made a very profound statement in his speech to the Society of Artificial Intelligence in Washington, DC when he said, “ But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent, then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way.”  In 2020, intelligent computers were inevitable as in Moore’s Law -- the 1965 dictum predicting the geometric growth of semiconductor power. Moore himself agreed in 2004: ``Silicon intelligence is going to evolve to the point where it'll get hard to tell computers from human beings.”  Today in 2050, we have the MCSquare, here in Palo Alto, a computer,  now in it’s infant stages that is far smarter than Albert Einstein and Hawking rolled into one.  This computer is designed to go beyond superior number crunching in which Silicon has given birth to new kinds of life. The advances and advantages of silicon life…chiefly immortality and unimaginable brainpower— inspired scientists in 2050 to forge composite human-silicon life forms with a common conscienceness that transcends all living beings.  The arrival of silicon life transformed civilization. All our science and art, even our concept of self, stemed ultimately from what our senses tell us about the world. But beings that can see radio waves and listen to starlight, that can feel the vast empty spaces in atoms of steel, have different perception of reality. What we have learned from them in 2050 is more wondrous than all the discoveries made with microscopes, telescopes, X-ray machines, and other high-tech tools for amplifying our senses back in the 20th-early 21st centuries. In 2020, we began to realize that the human brain only had a short time left as the smartest thing on earth.  The speed and complexity of computers continued to double every 18 months through 2012. By then the density of computer circuits jumped 1,000-fold, and the raw processing power of a human brain fit into a shoe box.  Beyond 2012, chips that exploit the quirky world of quantum mechanics promised far bigger leaps in complexity. Because such chips didn’t need wires, which now occupy most of the space on silicon, it won't take long to duplicate a human brain fully--not only its 100 billion neurons but also its trillions of synapses, or interconnections. This dense maze of interconnections is regarded as essential for intelligence to emerge.”

 

Visionary Biologist Foresaw Transhuman Future.  Dead at 84, John Maynard Smith married game theory to evolutionary biology while advocating human redesign.  Smith wrote Evolution and the Theory of Games.  (George Dvorsky, Betterhumans Staff.  May 26, 2004.)
Following his death at 84, English scientist John Maynard Smith is once again making headlines for his provocative propositions and wide-ranging legacy. Smith, emeritus professor of biology at the University of Sussex, died on April 19 at the age of 84.    Born in London and known as "JMS" to his friends, Maynard Smith will be remembered for his work in biology, and most particularly for his work introducing game theory to evolutionary biology.  He will also be remembered for openly advocating the reengineering of humans, particularly making alterations to the genome, and for speculating about the future of intelligent life on Earth.  Scenario of the 21st Century: A Transhuman Future:   “The success of an organism's actions often depends on what other organisms do.”  While critical of genetic determinism, Maynard Smith retained most of his “transhumanist perspectives” throughout his life. He described the major phases in the evolution of life, from the simplest replicators to complex human societies with language and how there is increasing complexity in the way information is either stored or transmitted.  He saw the marriage of DNA, programmed intelligence and silicon as hovering on the horizon, and predicted that humanity is likely headed for a major evolutionary shift. "Technically, that would be a major transition because it would be a new way of transmitting information between generations, and storing it," said JMS, "But if we come back in a hundred years' time, will the prostheses continue to be computers on our desks, will they be personalized bits of us, or will we find only silicon beings surviving? That remains to be seen."  And cognizant of advances in computing and artificial intelligence, Maynard Smith once noted that, "We like to think that computers are our slaves. It does seem to be possible that the relationship might be inverted."   He also believed that humans were continuing to evolve genetically, particularly in things such as disease resistance. Concerned with the accumulation of deleterious genetic traits, he argued in favor of influencing our own genome. "Eugenics is a dirty word, but I don't think it should be, I think we are going to have to think quite seriously about it," he noted. "The words 'eugenics' and 'fascism' are regarded as almost synonymous and I think that's just plain silly."

 

We’ll Have All the Genetic Pieces.  Next, We’ll Assemble the Jigsaw Puzzle.   George A. Scangos, president and CEO of Exelixis Pharmaceuticals Inc., in South San Francisco. and William A. Haseltine, chairman and CEO of Human Genome Sciences Inc.

From Llewellyn Hall at the Australian National University in Canberra as part of National Science Week 2001, three distinguished scientists give their views in a forum on the future of genes.   Scenario 1) Genetic Flood:   “In the first few years of the 21st century, science finishes one of the monumental tasks of all time--deciphering the blueprint of human life.  Eventually, the genome projects brings a revolution in medicine and biology.  By 2020, most miracles are going to come from unknown genes and unknown functions that are going to take decades and decades to understand. Researchers began the enormous task of making sense of the flood of new genetic information. Over the years, scientists at Myriad Genetics Inc. in Salt Lake City screened hundreds of thousands of proteins to see how they interact and what they do. While studying a protein capable of suppressing brain tumors, the Myriad team found that it attaches to a second, scaffold-like protein. That scaffold, in turn, binds to a third protein, which acts like a switch to turn the tumor suppressor on or off. With that discovery, the company has opened the door to a new tactic for fighting cancer by 2012. By 2010, botonists figured the functions of tens of thousands of genes that can survive droughts and vegetables containing vaccines. On the Arabidopsis project, scientists inferred the genes vital for these conditions and found 2,500 gene sequences linked with the ability to withstand salty environments – many previously unknown to science. This held the key to the 21 Century’s supercrops.”   Scenario 2) Biochemistry of Drug Development:   “By 2020, drug development radically changed thanks to understanding the evolution of fruit flies and the worm C., amazingly similar to human diseases.  Breakthroughs occurred in 2010 as a result of creating strains of fruit-flies with, say, tumors or diabetes-like defects.  Then they mutated thousands of the flies’ other genes, searching for those that change the bugs’ fate.  Scientists were able to find genes that restore normalcy and genes that make the defect worse.  This gave drugmakers whole new targets and approaches for tackling diseases. The mid-21st Century saw new drugs that conquered Alzheimers disease and cancer, vaccines to wipe out scourges like malaria and AIDS, and a second green revolution—with crops packing both extra nutrients and drugs. Ultimately, new knowledge brings power to do more than just fight disease. Scientists discovered an ability to manipulate life in ways only dreamed--or feared--before. By manipulating the body's biochemistry, scientists are able to repair and rejuvenate cells and organs. The fountain of youth was to be found within our own genes.  Cellular replacement keeps us young and healthy forever.”

 

Unbounding the Future—The Future of Nanotechnology.  The Foresight Institute is a non-profit, educational organization founded to help society prepare for nanotechnology. The goal of this organization is to educate and assure that nanotechnology will be developed safely and beneficially.

Scenarios of the 21st Century: Unbounding the Future.  The following scenarios can't represent what will happen, because no one knows. They can, however, show how post-breakthrough capabilities could mesh with human life and Earth's environment. The results will likely seem quaintly conservative from a future perspective, however much they seem like science fiction today.  Scenario 1) Solar Energy:  “In Fairbanks, Alaska, Linda Hoover yawns and flips a switch on a dark winter morning. The light comes on, powered by stored solar electricity. The Alaska oil pipeline shut down years ago, and tanker traffic is gone for good. Nanotechnology can make solar cells efficient, as cheap as newspaper, and as tough as asphalt–tough enough to use for resurfacing roads, collecting energy without displacing any more grass and trees. Together with efficient, inexpensive storage cells, this will yield low-cost power (but no, not "too cheap to meter"). There are promising prospects for energy and the environment in more depth.”  Scenario 2) Medicine - The Cures:   “Sue Miller of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been a bit hoarse for weeks, and just came down with a horrid head cold. For the past six months, she's been seeing ads for At Last!®: the Cure for the Common Cold, so she spends her five dollars and takes the nose-spray and throat-spray doses. Within three hours, 99 percent of the viruses in her nose and throat are gone, and the rest are on the run. Within six hours, the medical mechanisms have become inactive, like a pinch of inhaled but biodegradable dust, soon cleared from the body. She feels much better and won't infect her friends at dinner.     The human immune system is an intricate molecular mechanism, patrolling the body for viruses and other invaders, recognizing them by their foreign molecular coats. The immune system, though, is slow to recognize something new. For her five dollars, Sue bought 10 billion molecular mechanisms primed to recognize not just the viruses she had already encountered, but each of the five hundred most common viruses that cause colds, influenza, and the like.     Weeks have passed, but the hoarseness Sue had before her cold still hasn't gone away; it gets worse. She ignores it through a long vacation, but once she's back and caught up, Sue finally goes to see her doctor. He looks down her throat and says, "Hmmm." He asks her to inhale an aerosol, cough, spit in a cup, and go read a magazine. The diagnosis pops up on a screen five minutes after he pours the sample into his cell analyzer. Despite his knowledge, his training and tools, he feels chilled to read the diagnosis: a malignant cancer of the throat, the same disease that has cropped up all too often in his own mother's family.     He touches the "Proceed" button. In twenty minutes, he looks at the screen to check progress. Yes, Sue's cancerous cells are all of one basic kind, displaying one of the 16,314 known molecular markers for malignancy. They can be recognized, and since they can be recognized, they can be destroyed by standard molecular machines primed to react to those markers. The doctor instructs the cell analyzer to prime some "immune machines" to go after her cancer cells. He tests them on cells from the sample, watches, and sees that they work as expected, so he has the analyzer prime up some more.   Sue puts the magazine down and looks up. "Well, Doc, what's the word?" she asks.   "I found some suspicious cells, but this should clear it up," he says. He gives her a throat spray and an injection. "I'd like you to come back in three weeks, just to be sure."    "Do I have to?" she asks.     "You know," he lectures her, "we need to make sure it's gone. You really shouldn't let things like this go so far before coming in."     "Yes, fine, I'll make the appointment," she says. Leaving the office, Sue thinks fondly of how old-fashioned and conservative Dr. Fujima is.     The molecular mechanisms of the immune system already destroy most potential cancers before they grow large enough to detect. With nanotechnology, we will build molecular mechanisms to destroy those that the immune system misses.”    Scenario 3) Cleansing the Soil:  “California Scout Troop 9731 has hiked for six days, deep in the second-wilderness forests of the Pacific Northwest.     "I bet we're the first people ever to walk here," says one of the youngest scouts.    "Well, maybe you're right about walking," says Scoutmaster Jackson, "but look up ahead–what do you see, scouts?"    Twenty paces ahead runs a strip of younger trees, stretching left and right until it vanishes among the trunks of the surrounding forest.    "Hey, guys! Another old logging road!" shouts an older scout. Several scouts pull probes from their pockets and fit them to the ends of their walking sticks. Jackson smiles: It's been ten years since a California troop found anything this way, but the kids keep trying.    The scouts fan out, angling their path along the scar of the old road, poking at the ground and watching the readouts on the stick handles. Suddenly, unexpectedly, comes a call: "I've got a signal! Wow–I've got PCBs!"     In a moment, grinning scouts are mapping and tracing the spill. Decades ago, a truck with a leaking load of chemical waste snuck down the old logging road, leaving a thin toxic trail. That trail leads them to a deep ravine, some rusted drums, and a nice wide patch of invisible filth. The excitement is electrifying.     Setting aside their maps and orienteering practice, they unseal a satellite locator to log the exact latitude and longitude of the site, then send a message that registers their cleanup claim on the ravine. The survey done, they head off again, eagerly planning a return trip to earn the now-rare Toxic Waste Cleanup Merit Badge.     Today, tree farms are replacing wilderness. Tomorrow, the slow return to wilderness may begin, when nature need no longer be seen as a storehouse of natural resources to be plundered.”  Scenario 4) Pocket Supercomputers:    “At the University of Michigan, Joel Gregory grabs a molecular rod with both hands and twists. It feels a bit weak, and a ripple of red reveals too much stress in a strained molecular bond halfway down its length. He adds two atoms and twists the rod again: all greens and blues, much better. Joel plugs the rod into the mechanical arm he's designing, turns up the temperature, and sets the whole thing in motion. A million atoms dance in thermal vibration, gears spin, and the arm swings to and fro in programmed motion. It looks good. A few parts are still mock-ups, but doing a thesis takes time, and he'll work out the rest of the molecular details later. Joel strips off the computer display goggles and gloves and blinks at the real world. It's time for a sandwich and a cup of coffee. He grabs the computer itself, stuffs it into his pocket, and heads for the student center.    Researchers already use computers to build models of molecules, and "virtual reality systems" have begun to appear, enabling a user to walk around the image of a molecule and "touch" it, using computer-controlled gloves and goggles. We can't build a supercomputer able to model a million-atom machine yet–much less build a pocket supercomputer–but computers keep shrinking in size and cost. With nanotechnology to make molecular parts, a computer like Joel's will become easy to build. Today's supercomputers will seem like hand-cranked adding machines by comparison.”  Scenario 5) Global Wealth:   “Behind a village school in the forest a stone's throw from the Congo River, a desktop computer with a thousand times the power of an early 1990s supercomputer lies half-buried in a recycling bin. Indoors, Joseph Adoula and his friends have finished their day's studies; now they are playing together in a vivid game universe using personal computers each a million times more powerful than the clunker in the trash. They stay late in air-conditioned comfort.   Trees use air, soil, and sunlight to make wood, and wood is cheap enough to burn. Nanotechnology can do likewise, making products as cheap as wood–even products like supercomputers, air conditioners, and solar cells to power them. The resulting economics may even keep tropical forests from being burned.”  Scenario 6) Cleansing the Air:   “In Earth's atmosphere, the twentieth-century rise in carbon-dioxide levels has halted and reversed. Fossil fuels are obsolete, so pollution rates have lessened. Efficient agriculture has freed fertile land for reforestation, so growing trees are cleansing the atmosphere. Surplus solar power from the world's repaved roads is being used to break down excess carbon dioxide at a rate of 5 billion tons per year. Climates are returning to normal, the seas are receding to their historical shores, and ecosystems are beginning the slow process of recovery. In another twenty years, the atmosphere will be back to the pre-industrial composition it had in the year 1800.”   Scenario 7) Transportation Outward:   “Jim Salin's afternoon flight from Dulles International is on the ground, late for departure. Impatiently, Jim checks the time: any later, and he'll miss his connecting flight.     At last, the glassy-surfaced craft rolls down the runway. With gliderlike wings, it lifts its fat body and climbs steeply toward the east. A few pages into his novel, Jim is interrupted by a second recitation of safety instructions and the captain's announcement that they'll try to make up for lost time. Jim settles back in his seat as the main engines kick in, the wings retract, the acceleration builds, and the sky darkens to black. Like the highest-performance rockets of the 1980s, Jim's liner produces an exhaust of pure water vapor. Spaceflight has become clean, safe, and routine. And every year, more people go up than come down.   The cost of spaceflight is mostly the cost of high-performance, reliable hardware. Molecular manufacturing will make aerospace structures from nearly flawless, superstrong materials at low cost. Add inexpensive fuel, and space will become more accessible than the other side of the ocean is today.”   Scenario 8) Restoring Species:   “Restoration Day Ceremonies are always moving events. For some reason, the old people always cry, even though they say they're happy.     Crying, Tracy Stiegler thinks, doesn't make any sense. She looks again through the camouflage screen over the sandy Triangle Keys beach, gazing across the Caribbean toward the Yucatán Peninsula. Soon this will be theirs again, and that's all to the good. Tracy and the other scientists from BioArchive have positions of honor in today's Restoration Day Ceremony. Since the mid-twentieth century there had been no living Caribbean monk seals, only grisly relics of the years of their slaughter: seal furs and dry museum specimens. Tracy's team struggled for years, gathering these relics and studying them with molecular instruments. It had been known for decades—since the 1980s—that genes are tough enough to survive in dried skin, bone, horn, and eggshell. Tracy's team had collected genes and rebuilt cells.    They worked for years, and gave thanks to the strict protection—late, but good enough—that saved one related species. At last, a Hawaiian monk seal had given birth to a genetically-pure Caribbean monk seal, twin to a seal long dead. And now there were five hundred, some young, some middle-aged, with decent genetic diversity and five years' experience living in the confines of a coastal ecological station.    Today, with raucous voices, they are moving out into the world to reclaim their ecological niche. As Tracy watches, she thinks of the voices that will never be heard again: of the species, known and unknown, that left not a even a bloody scrap to be cherished and restored. Thousands (millions?) of species had simply been brushed into extinction as habitats were destroyed by farming and logging. People knew–for years they had known–that freezing or drying would save genes. And they knew of the ecological destruction, and they knew they weren't stopping it. And the ignorant bastards didn't even keep samples.    Tracy discovers that she, too, cries at Restoration Day Ceremonies.     People will surely push biomedical applications of nanotechnology far and fast for human health-care. With a bit more pushing, this technology base will be good enough to restore some species now thought lost forever, to repair some of the damage human beings have done to the web of life. It would be better to preserve ecosystems and species intact, but restoration, even of a few species, will be far better than nothing. Some samples from endangered species are being kept today, but not enough, and mostly for the wrong reasons.”  Scenario 9) An Unstable Arms Race: “Disputes over technology development and trade had soured relationships between Singapore and the Japan-United States alliance. Diplomatic inquiries regarding peculiar seismic and sonar readings in the South China Sea had just begun when they suddenly became irrelevant: an estimated one billion tons of unfamiliar, highly-automated military hardware appeared in coastal waters around the world. Accusations began to fly between Congress and PeaceWatch personnel: "If you'd done your jobs—" "If you'd let us do our jobs—"   And so, in late February, Singapore emerged as a military superpower.
Low cost, high quality, high-speed production can be applied to many purposes, not all attractive. Nanotechnology has enormous potential for abuse.”

 

Molcular Machines Aren’t Fantasy. Just Ask the Pentagon.  James C. Ellenbogen, Mitre Corp., a Pentagon-funded research center in McLean, Va.

Nanotechnology has grabbed Washington's attention. Seven months ago, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency launched a Molecular Electronics Program. And Congress seems eager to spend a lot more on nanotech research. One plan would double the current budget of $232 million over the next three years. The White House may go along, because it has already tagged nanotech as one of 11 critical research areas.
Scenario in the 21st Century: Molecular Machines Aren’t Fantasy:    “In the 2020s, you may be able to buy a ``recipe'' for a PC over the net, insert plastic and conductive molecules into your ``nanobox,'' and have it spit out a computer.  Matter will become software. That's not a misprint: Matter will become software. As a result, we'll be able to use the Internet to download not just software but hardware, too.    Nanotechnology is the craft of constructing things smaller than a few hundred nanometers, or billionths of a meter. That's the span of a few scores of atoms strung together. Move automated assembly down to such scales, and the implications for manufacturing are pretty clear: Whole sectors of production could get clobbered. It could start with semiconductors in the 2010s, then spread to other small products, like cellular phones. Researchers are already busy developing techniques to make pinhead-size computers, ``and the bits and pieces of these nanocomputers are far smaller than the physical structures we now manipulate to hold information on disk drives,'' Ellenbogen says. ``So someday soon, we could download hardware from the Net just like we download software today.''
New disk drives will be needed to physically reproduce some hardware downloads. One concept is to make a read/write head from a cluster of ultrasharp points to nudge atoms and molecules this way or that.  ``Once we have the technology to build computers no bigger than grains of salt,'' Ellenbogen says, ``we're in a fundamentally new ball game.'' Computers that tiny will be dirt cheap, so they'll be everywhere. A computer in lingerie will tell the washing machine what the water temperature should be. Ballpoint pens will blink a warning when their ink gets low. Your shoes will let your car know you're approaching, so it can adjust the seat and mirrors and unlock the door.  By 2020, the  grand slam of software hits the market: the nanobox. This is a sort of futuristic copy machine that combines nanotech fabrication with today's so-called desktop-manufacturing methods, used mainly to knock out quick prototypes of new products. If you want a new cell phone, you'll purchase a recipe on the Net. It will tell you to insert a sheet of plastic and squirt electrically conductive molecules into the ``toner'' cartridge. The nanobox will pass the plastic back and forth, laying down patterns of molecules, then electrically direct them to assemble themselves into circuits and an antenna. Next, using different ``toners,'' the nanobox will add a keypad, speaker, and microphone and finally build up a housing.  Building computers atom by atom remains a distant dream, though, and Ellenbogen wants quick results. ``So I'm betting on molecular electronics for the near term,'' he says. That looks like a good nanogamble.”

 

Four Scenarios of the Future of Wireless Technologies.   Wiley Publishers since 1807. Wireless Firesight, Inc. nominated the study of scenarios of a wireless future. The project was initiated by Wireless@KTH, a research and educational center formed by the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in cooperation with industry.

We are entering exciting times.  After the decade when the Internet and the cell-phone changed our lives and working habits, these two technologies are about to merge.  At the same time, the indistry is going through one of its worst crisis ever.  At this crossroads, the future can take any direction.  Up or down. Success or failure.  From the following scenarios, important areas for technological research are identified. A number of critical challenges facing industry are identified: the high cost for infrastructure, the slow spectrum release, the stampeding system complexity, radiation, battery capacity, and the threat of a disruptive market change facing the telco industry.  Scenario 1) Wireless Explosion, Creative Destruction.   “Wireless applications and services are a huge success in 2015, and in a rapidly transforming industry the old market leaders lost their dominant positions. The old telco world with closed, vertically integrated solutions gave way to layered, open architectures based on IP (Internet Protocol). The datacom industry won the market battle. However, in a large but maturing industry, profit margins were squeezed and the datacom winners could never really leverage their market power.  Users were very active and drove this development towards an open IP world with skyrocketing traffic and an abundance of applications. They preferred choice over convenience and didn’t accept being locked-in to corporate bundles. Governments released a lot of new unlicensed spectrum, undermining operator dominance and triggering a do-it-yourself wireless movement. The Open Source movement, down-loading of music and other copyrighted material, enforced these changes in consumer attitudes and the values of the underground culture gradually became mainstream. Feeling this value shift, governments were more and more reluctant to enforce restrictive IPR (Intellectual Property Rights), further undermining profit margins. The wireless success changed peoples’ way of work and lifestyle. Being always connected with context sensitive information, a growing part of the knowledge work force could spend most of their time on the move, in meetings or traveling between meetings. Globalization continued and with it the growing trends of traveling and commuting.”    Scenario 2) Slow Motion: “The wireless world has developed slowly since the turn of the century. The global economic recession during the first decade in combination with real and perceived health problems due to radiation from wireless devices deeply affected the wireless industry. Even though the demand for mobile services has increased, the service explosion that many people envisaged never materialized. The wireless industry has gone through substantial change. Consolidation has increased and the number of companies in each market has been reduced. Technological development has slowed down and profit margins have decreased substantially. The industry has matured. The big NICs, for example China, India, and Russia, are catching up faster than expected.”  Scenario 3) Rediscovering Harmony: “Balance in life became the dominating value in most industrialized nations where material abundance (and security) could be taken for granted. These are post materialistic times where human and environmental needs are in focus. The wireless industry is experiencing a difficult dilemma: refocus or die! There are fewer service and application providers than predicted around 2000, but the market is not completely dry. The big hurdle is to refocus and rethink business models, offerings, and brand on a market with active and demanding consumers categorized by numerous sub-cultures with individual needs. We see many local operators and service providers that have emerged as a result of the trend to move out of the crammed cities and forming smaller, local communities where people live and work. At the same time there are a few global operators providing global communication for the increasing number of people traveling longer and more often for pleasure, and for smaller but more price insensitive segments.”    Scenario 4) Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments: “Through consolidation and mergers, large companies, known as moguls, have come to dominate the market. A mogul is a descendant of the early, big information technology or media companies that managed to survive the crises of the first decade of the 2000s. These (few) grew and expanded outside their original business segments, for instance from being only a systems software manufacturer a company became a big content provider and also started manufacturing devices aimed specifically at using their services. Smaller players were often bought or put out of business due to the dominant position of the big companies. The moguls, together with the world’s governments exert substantial and active control over the information flow and the communication industries. The companies and government are working against the chaotic freedom that used to characterize the early Internet, and the purpose is to protect society and individuals from various unwanted actors and behavior. Examples are: cyber crime, international terrorism, protecting content owners and others from illegal copying of software, music, movies etc. and battling other forms of information use and abuse. The moguls are supported by government since they are seen as more easily monitored. Anonymity on the Net is no longer possible. All users are automatically identified and registered when acting on the Net. The world is however not an anti-democratic society where the moguls and govern-ments use the Net and the information to gain power and ultimately dictatorship, even though many people fear that this might be the case. Counter- and freedom movements do exist despite heavy measures against them by governments and large corporations alike.”

 

The Toughest Problems Will be Solved with a Role of the Dice.  Isaac Chuang's lab at IBM's Almaden Research Center in San Jose.

Physicists hope to use subatomic particles' imprecise nature to answer questions beyond the reach of today's computers. Today's computers still solve problems the same way their ancestor, the Eniac, did back in 1945. They follow instructions, step by step. Their  obedience has freed humans from tedious mathematical calculations, bringing changes in communication, entertainment, and scientific research that the Eniac's inventors never dreamed of.  Physicists and computer scientists are finding that they can harness subatomic particles to crack problems that were long thought unsolvable. The resulting quantum computers--which may be available in some 15 to 20 years--will speed drug discovery, let forecasters nail the weather with precision, and help chipmakers design circuits that are now impossibly complex. Scenario of the 21st Century: The Future of Quantum Computers:  “By 2020-2050, quantum computers will have inputs – a billion or more names, each represented with equal probability. The computer's program nudges and shapes this ``cloud'' of probabilities, checking all the listings against the desired name at once. The quantum programmer's job is to manipulate the odds, loading the dice in a way that leads quickly to the correct answer.Nabil Amer, manager of IBM's quantum computing effort, predicts that this kind of subatomic gambling will have huge payoffs for complex simulations. Engineers and drug designers will be able to ``just shut down the lab and do it on the computer,'' he says. Picture a database containing all the known rules for how chemicals interact. A quantum computer could sift through in an instant to find a molecule to fit any wish list of drug properties. The most successful design of proto-type quantum computers is taking place in Isaac Chuang's lab at IBM's Almaden Research Center in San Jose. A pencil-size glass tube filled with a yellow liquid containing millions of alanine molecules rests inside an NMR machine, a small version of the imaging machines found in hospitals. Each molecule is a tiny quantum computer, with its three carbon atoms serving as its working memory. To do a calculation, Chuang uses a series of NMR pulses to flip and jiggle the atoms' probabilities. A tenth of a second later, a final pulse forces the atoms to make up their minds and cough up an answer.Whether quantum computers are wanted or not in the future, we may find that we need them. As ordinary computer circuits continue to shrink, eventually they'll reach quantum mechanical size, and their behavior will change radically. Many in the computer industry see this size limit--expected sometime around 2012--as a roadblock, but Chuang calls it the quantum mechanical pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. ``We're starting at the end,'' he muses, ``and walking backwards toward civilization.'' You can't get more quantum than that. Quantum computers will emerge as the superior computational devices at the very least, and perhaps one day make today's modern computer obsolete.   Quantum computation has its origins in highly specialized fields of theoretical physics, but its future undoubtedly lies in the profound effect it will have on the lives of all mankind.”

 

The Mind Is Immortal.   Otis Port, Senior Writer of Business Week, August, 1999.

Soon, technology may have the power to track every waking moment of your life-and preserve it in a form that will allow your great-great-great grandchildren to quiz a virtual you.  Scenario in the 21st Century: So You’d Like to Forever?   “By the year 2050, you might actually get your wish--providing you are willing to evacuate your biological body and take up residence in silicon circuits. But long before then, perhaps as early as 2005, less radical measures will begin offering a semblance of immortality.  Researchers are confident that technology will soon be able to track every waking moment of your life. Whatever you see and hear, plus all that you say and write, can be recorded, analyzed and automatically indexed, and added to your personal chronicles. By the 2030s, it may be possible to capture your nervous system's electrical activity, which would also preserve your thoughts and emotions. Researchers at the BT Laboratories of British Telecommunications PLC have dubbed this concept the Soul Catcher.   In a preview of what the near term holds, Carnegie Mellon University two years ago unveiled a system called Synthetic Interviews, with Albert Einstein as its first subject. To learn about the theory of relativity or the physicist's private life, you engage in what almost seems to be a live videoconference with an ersatz Einstein. The system quickly parses each question and selects the best-match response from a bank of 500 video recordings. So it's easy to forget what's going on under the hood--speech recognition to digitize your words, natural-language processing to understand the question, and a rating scheme similar to that used by Lycos Inc. to rank the results of Web searches.  The hardware for early versions of virtual immortality exists now. You could document your daily life using tiny video cameras embedded in eyeglass frames. They could be linked to IBM's latest hard disk--it's the size of a quarter and could be housed in a pendant. It stores 300 megabytes of data, enough to hold 30 days of your life. But by 2005, says David A. Thompson, a fellow at IBM Almaden Research Center, a full year should easily fit on such Lilliputian disks.”

 

The Earth Will Don an Electronic Skin.  Neil Gross, Business Week, Horst L. Stormer, a Nobel prize-winning physicist employed by Lucent Technologies Inc.'s Bell Laboratories and Columbia University.

Today, silicon networks look nothing like the brain, but nodes of the internet have begun to function as neurons. Hundreds of thousands of PCs working in concert have already tackled complex computing problems. In the not-so-distant future, some scientists expect spontaneous computer networks to emerge, forming a ``huge digital creature''  Scenario in the 21st Century: The Earth Will Don an Electronic Skin:    The skin is an uncanny piece of engineering. It processes immense amounts of data on temperature, pressure, humidity, and texture. It registers movement in the air, gauges the size of objects by the distance between points of contact, alerts us to danger, and prepares us for pleasure. But the skin does more than register superficial events--it's a controller. It sends signals to regulate blood flow, activate sweat glands, alert immune cells to marauding invaders, and block ultraviolet light. Even when skin dies, it is utilitarian: Dead cells accumulate in layers to prevent unwanted penetration.  In 2025, planet earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the Internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations. This skin is already being stitched together. It consists of millions of embedded electronic measuring devices: thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs, electroencephalographs. These will probe and monitor cities and endangered species, the atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our dreams. By 2012, there will be trillions of such telemetric systems, each with a microprocessor brain and a radio. Consultant Ernst & Young predicts that by 2010, there will be 10,000 telemetric devices for every human being on the planet. They'll be in constant contact with one another. But the communication won't be at our plodding verbal pace. ``Fifty kilobits per second is slow,'' huffs Horst L. Stormer, a Nobel prize-winning physicist employed by Lucent Technologies Inc.'s Bell Laboratories and Columbia University. Machines will prefer to talk at gigabit speeds and higher--so fast that humans will catch only scattered snippets of the discussion.  What will the earth's new skin permit us to feel? How will we use its surges of sensation? For several years--maybe for a decade--there will be no central nervous system to manage this vast signaling network. Certainly there will be no central intelligence. But many scientists believe that some qualities of self-awareness will emerge once the Net is sensually enhanced and emulates the complexity of the human brain.  Sensuality is only one force pushing the Net toward intelligence. An eerie symbiosis of human and machine effort is also starting to evolve. The Internet creates a channel for thousands of programmers around the world to collaborate on software development and debugging. That has produced an evolutionary leap in software: The ``open source'' movement that spawned the Linux operating system. The Linux world behaves as an ecosystem--``a self-correcting spontaneous order,'' as open-source pioneer Eric Raymond describes it in his Net manifesto, The Cathedral and the Bazaar. Through collaboration, this community can push past the technical barriers to machine intelligence.”

 

The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life
Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill
Chapter: An Ambient Intelligent Home Scenario

Authors: Emile Aarts, Rick Harwig, and Martin Schuurmans

(Emile is department head of the Media Interaction Group of the Philips Research Laboratories Eindhoven. Rich Harwig is managing director, Philips Research Eindhoven. Martin Schuurmans is executive Vice President of the Philips Centre for Industrial Technology).

In this scenario, the authors describe life at home in the future. The home is “intelligent,” filled with technological gadgets that keep its occupants in touch with each other and themselves.
Ellen, the fictional main character returns home from work. The intelligent security system  recognizes her and automatically unlocks the door. As she enters the home, the “house map” indicates the locations of both her spouse (who is in Paris) and child (who is in the playroom). In the kitchen, the “family memo board” indicates there are messages to which Ellen must attend: one is from the refrigerator, requesting confirmation on the grocery list before it is sent to the supermarket; another is relaying information she requested regarding holiday cottages in Spain. Ellen connects via video screen to speak with her daughter in the playroom and to her husband in Paris for a viewing of the art he intends to buy. Thinking of dinner, she views the display of menus that are based upon the food currently in the refrigerator and pantry.    
Later that evening, Ellen works out to her own personalized routine and watches as the virtual presenter relays the information that has collected on the home server during the day. In the bathroom, the mirror does a quick check up for weight gain and protein levels. After scanning the next day’s agenda, the intelligent wake up system asks Ellen for her desired wake up time and wake up experience.

 

The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life.
Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill. Chapter: Engineering the Ocean
Author: Marcia K. McNutt (President & CEO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, President of American Geophysical Union)

In this chapter, author Marcia McNutt describes a future of oceanography the will have a “fundamentally different strategy”: the use of autonomous observatories, drifters, and rovers to explore the oceans and return important data. She supposes that within the next few decades, because of the information these systems can return that we will  “understand, or at least think we understand, how the climate system works, what limits ocean productivity, the complete ecology of commercial fish species, and the other mysteries of the ocean.” This understanding could lead to predictions of the “weather” of the oceans.
By 2025, Ms McNutt indicates low-cost drifters will have been riding the ocean’s currents for decades, each relaying its position and the water’s ambient temperature and salinity via satellite to a central data processing facility. “The data from these drifters are combined with meteorological data and immediately integrated in a massive global ocean model that predicts the "weather" of the ocean: temperatures, currents, locations and velocities of fronts, and so on. The models are run forward into the future to provide forecasts for shipping companies, naval operations, and the growing number of multinational companies that have commercial operations in the ocean.” The data, combined with improved models, will provide fairly reliable forecasts for periods of a week or more; and when run further into the future, will be helpful in “predicting overall heating and cooling of the ocean, major changes in poleward heat transports and variations in the intensity of the boundary currents. This information is vital to farmers in deciding what crops to plant based on projections of temperature and rainfall from the ocean climate model. Much of the guesswork in the global commodities market (will have) disappeared once the global ocean climate forecasts became generally available.”
In Ms McNutt’s scenario during 2025, the computer model also indicates the probability of a massive El Nino, one that may be most extreme event of its kind ever recorded. “Even more worrisome, a forward projection of the climate models predicts that the El Nino will lead to an unusually warm winter and summer in the northeastern Atlantic, causing further melting of the Greenland ice sheet, already destabilized by global warming.” The warming triggered by the El Nino could take the planet into another ice age.
Fearful citizens will be demanding action from their governments. Governments consider “dumping a tanker of oil in the western Indian Ocean to decouple the ocean from the anomalous wind stress, thereby averting or at least lessening the impact of the El Nino” or constructing dams “across the streams that drain the Greenland ice sheet to prevent the water from reaching the ocean.”

 

Street Trends: How Today’s Alternative Youth Cultures are Creating Tomorrow’s Mainstream Markets.
Author: Janine Lopiano-Misdom and Joanne De Luca, 1997, HarperCollins Pub.

“The distant future – it’s kind of scary, but I imagine the future as a scene out of The Terminators, where there’s people versus people. I think the street people are going to continue to grow, and I think the more sophisticated people are going to stay indoors. I think there is going to be a major separation between the two.”  Attusa, 24, student, LA

“In the future, everything will be back like it used to be with the earth like a garden, just because that’s where real happiness is and peace – in nature…” Jade, 22, student, LA

“Oh, the future is all about computers and new media, but I think the real new media is probably person to person or better communication. That more valuable than the Internet will ever be…”  Myles, 22, student, San Diego

“2010? 2020? I think it’s just gonna be faster communication – faster than it is now. Still don’t see governments changing that much to do great causes. This whole capitalistic greed will still be around – people will be killing each other for money, wherever it is. The US might not be the US anymore – might not have as much power as we do now. 2020 … it’s hard to say because I think other countries are definitely coming up with economic power – the Asian block, the European block – it’s gonna be interesting who’s gonna be making global influences then.” Lee, 22, web site designer, Austin TX

 

Chronicle of the Future (website).
www.chronicle-future.co.uk 

Chronicle of the Future offers a virtual “World’s Fair” of futures – complete with frankenfoods Bill Gates’ clone and “personcopters” (single-seat hybrid helicopter/planes).  Dubbed “Tomorrow’s News Today” the website offers a stunning array of scenario vignettes from 2000 – 2050, each structured as a news article of the future and organized by 20 topic areas (such as business, crime, ecology, media, personalities, sport, technology and war).   The following is an excerpt from a scenario in the year 2026 titled “Magic touch, son”: “Remember 'land football'? FIFA, the game's world governing body, has finally acknowledged virtual reality football as a sport in its own right. The decision follows the latest release of Top Score, the VR game from software company K.  Broadcast rights to the game have been snapped up by WorldWeb, which plans to screen a monthly big match from the world VR football league. It expects a global audience of at least 2 billion.  WW monitors the current rankings of VR teams and their
players and then selects the games featuring the most exciting sides for broadcast.  K's holograph technology allows the players to maintain a speed and style of game impossible to match on a real pitch - and without any risk of injury, so there will be no opportunity for star players to linger on the treatment table.   Although WW is starting out on a monthly basis - provided the players can stay awake - the number of games that can be played in a season is practically limitless. And likewise, the earnings potential of the top players is almost infinite.”

 

Spacecast 2020, vol.1
Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, June 1994
Authors: Prepared by the students and faculty of Air University.

In May 1993, the chief of staff of the United States Air Force directed Air University to undertake a study to identify capabilities for the period of 2020 and beyond and the technologies to enable them which will best support preserving the security of the United States.  The scenarios are based on three “dimensions” of the future world: the number of actors playing a role in space; the will of the actors to use space; and the technological proliferation and growth and economic vitality of the actors, or their technomic capability. 

Scenario 1) Spacefaring World: “The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be involved in space.  This world also has high technomic vitality representing the capability to be involved in space.  The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with strong desires to engage in space-related activity enabled by vast economic growth and proliferation and ebullient technological vitality.  Specifically, the government is one of many actors in the Spacefaring world where individuals, transnationals, and supranationals are all highly active and competitive within a stable interdependent environment.  Free trade and a global industrial policy stimulate technomic vigor.  Space investment is an economic reality with wide economic opportunity available to many.  In this world, space activity is proliferated, global, and expanding and the military is involved across the board, even though the militarization of space is limited. 

Scenario 2) Rogue World: Rogue world.  This is a world in which there are few actors with a desire to be in space and limited technological and economic capability, but the will of some actors to be involved in space will be very high.  .  The features of this world are characterized by a few space actors, low technomic vitality, and a strong will for involvement by some.  The interesting actors are principally states and political actors. There will be few space entrepreneurs in this world, and the international political system will be characterized by shifting alliances.  The low technomic vitality will be evidenced by tiered shifting economies, protectionism, and embargoes against the rogues.  These rogues will be willing to sacrifice domestic needs to preserve national security and to receive the prestige associated with space activity.  [Technologically], few breakthroughs are evident [in this world].  As a result of the lack of cooperation associated with the spread of scientific knowledge, this world has limited or little advanced propulsion.  The use of space in the Rogue world is limited, but leaders of such a state perceive it to be critical.  The military's role in space is on the rise.  Counterforce potential is very high and increasing, particularly with the development of highly capable anti-satellite weapons (ASAT).  The military's logistical role in space is moderate and characterized by limited activity and infrastructure.  On the other hand, the military's role in monitoring and reporting is high.  The relationship between civilian and government space activity is weak and the amount of activity has been essentially low.  There is almost no human activity in space.” 

Scenario 3) Mad Max Incorporated: Mad Max Incorporated world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be in space, but actors who are limited by very low technomic vitality.  The dominant space actors are corporate rather than political entities.  This world is very competitive and potentially conflictual.  Space actors in the Mad Max Incorporated world are predominantly corporations.  Governments in this world have become welfare states or welfare guardians.  The low technomic vitality is characterized by the continuous shifting of internal corporate resource allocations as companies move money from state to state to meet their needs.  Trade is moderate, and corporations are pursuing profits while states are focused on domestic needs. Technology development and its proliferation are irregular.  Wide-scale political and social space vision has been lost.  Political leaders have abandoned space to corporations seeking a niche in space.  Political leaders explain away this lack of policy by claiming that the cost of space is too high and the taxpayers are not willing to foot the bill.  Instead, political leadership is increasingly consumed by reactions to crises relating to welfare, health, and protection of the environment. 

 

The Future of M-Commerce   DTN Network.  Credit for this work is acknowledged to the following students of   ENPC MBA program, Paris, France; class of 2000:  Fenella Davis,  Sebastian Wossagk, Giancarlo Giangola, Ripu Daman Singh, Misako Oki, and Magnus Sande.  

These four scenarios represent a range of driving forces on the future of mobile-commerce (m-commerce). These forces were placed within a scenario matrix spectrum with the vertical axis displaying the extremes of global acceptance of mobile-commerce to global resistance of mobile-commerce; the horizontal axis displaying the extreme of fragmentation of m-commerce in the marketplace and the globalization of m-commerce in the marketplace on the other extreme. 

Scenario One: Global Mobile (acceptance and globalization).  January 31, 2005  7:30 Wake Up  “My wife called me on my mobile from downstairs to wake me up. She used her own mobile hanging on the wall and said that breakfast was ready. We smiled at each other on the screens of our mobiles. I took a quick shower and went to the dining room. I wear the multi-functional "wrist-mobile" for 24 hours a day since my life, both business and social, is completely controlled by it. Our children also came into the room and started playing with the game on their mobiles. I was reading the "e-newspapers" and ëe-mailsí, and called my business partners to confirm today's meeting. In actual fact I don't have to go to the office and see people face-to-face since "tele-working" and "tele-conferencing" are the current trends of working style. So my company employees basically work at their homes and communicate with each other through the big screen sets. My children have also their own mobiles and take them to the school. On the way to my office, I was stuck in a traffic jam, but as the built-in music player on my mobile was playing I did not get irritated.”

 9:00 Arrive at Office   “I needed to double-check my business diary for today's schedule on my mobile. I prepared for today's work carefully, and still I had 40 minutes to spare before my first meeting so I checked my account balance and financial market through my mobile. My "e-wallets" told me that I could afford to buy additional shares. I quickly switched the mode to the internet on my mobile, confirmed the market trend and decided to execute the trade. "Mobile banking" is very popular and its security system of data transfer is fully guaranteed. The mobile phone is now in wide-spread use driven by demand from not only personal users but also business users looking for increased flexibility and productivity. Now is the year 2005, the mobile phone is combined with everything, not only computers, internet and business but also television & radio and even music ! In addition to that, we can do business and regular checkups. Still it is getting cheaper, smaller and lighter with high functionality so people can choose from many kinds of mobile phones.”  

10:00 Meeting  “I went to the meeting room and had a "tele-conference". We have so many issues that we have to deal with. We analyzed our competitors within the same industry and the discussion was getting heated after 1 hour. One of my business partners suggested that we should take account of the government's policy. Surely it really has a big affect on the business community and the government is highly aware of the internet and "e-commerce" as they are likely to change the economic system as a whole. I put particular emphasis on the mobile phone because I believe that this is the most useful and convenient technology. Global standardization ñ a world-wide information infrastructure - is set in almost all countries now. We are heading into the digital world more and more. The driving force of technology has brought about business restructuring and a communication revolution. We wrapped up our meeting and were all exhausted although we had had a fruitful discussion. I was very hungry but I had lots of work to do before catching a flight in 2 hours time.”

12:00 Lunch  “I opened the lunch box and called my wife to ask what she was doing now. The screen of our mobiles was divided into two because she was talking with one of her friends in another country. The three of us said "hello" and "how are you ?" to each other. I realized that time was running out fast, so I said goodbye and hung up. I packed up my briefcase immediately and left my office around 12:30.”

14:00 Catch Flight  “ I was getting a little nervous but I was sure that I could still catch the flight. All I needed was a shortcut so I checked the "e-navigator" for the traffic and followed the guide. I had already arranged my flight on my mobile, and everything was done smoothly. Again my mobile was the main player for the flight arrangement including the check-in and customs. Everyone 'carries' "e-drivers license", "e-passport" or "e-social welfare number" as their ID. It was only a 2 hour flight and the plane was about to go across the border soon after take-off. I called my children at this time and asked them whether everything at school was all right. Talking with my family is my most enjoyable time especially when I am under heavy pressure on my job. They looked fine on the screen of my mobile.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination  “The flight arrived on time as scheduled but I did not have time to take a rest before the business dinner. I was in a hurry to find the restaurant where I was meeting with my clients. I called them from my mobile and said that I would do my best to get there on time. They kindly answered "take your time, we will wait for you. Thank you for calling!". I took a taxi at the airport and decided to do some work in the taxi. I sent some "e-mail" to various clients and other people. For the last couple of years dramatic changes have occured in technological industry and the digital economy was accelerated rapidly. Everyone has access to the sights and sounds of a mobile multimedia world. Everyone and anyone can afford to participate. We have the ability to communicate with the world from anywhere. Major telecoms and computer vendors aiming to dominate in this market are forming alliances. Computer manufacturers are also the producers of communication appliances. There are many varieties of these appliances sold at the cheap price.”

18:00 Business Dinner  “I actually managed to be on time at the restaurant and we tried to finalize our contract. We enjoyed the business dinner since everything went as well as both sides expected. Usually, we conduct our business through "tele-conferencing" but this time we had decided to meet in person. However, I could not help thinking that we could have done this by using our electronic tools as usual. We have already established very reliable relationships. If we look at this meeting from our side it was expensive ! We paid for flight ticket and spent a lot of time. I agreed with our clients on the following procedures as a next step for the deals should be done at each office. Ultimately, we are living in the "e-world" now ! The world is becoming a common marketplace in which people desire the same product and lifestyles. By uniting the world market global standards of mobile phone ensured the compatibility between systems from different manufacturers and in different countries. Not only technological, economical, social and political aspects but also environmental aspect should not been ignored. This new economy created by "e-business" is generating enormous environmental benefits by reducing the amount of energy and materials consumed by businesses and increasing overall productivity. Paperless is of course highly acceptable and "e-business" is very eco-friendly.”

 22:00 Local Entertainment   “After dinner I went to a hotel where I was supposed to stay overnight. In a small single room I called my wife and children to say "good night". I was so tired and thinking hard about what happened today. It was definitely a long day ! I decided to go to bed early in order to save my own energy. I don't have to set the alarm because the morning call from my wife will wake me up.”

Scenario Two: “Noble Mobile” (globalization and resistance) January 31, 2005   7:30 Wake up  “The alarm on my clock went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, opening my laptop to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. On the home page, there is a photo of a teenaged girl, and the article read that she had a brain tumor due to the radiation that is emitted from the mobile phone. The same story was also on the live news on CNN's website.  I closed it in frustration as my company produced new generation mobile internet phones and recently we invested 10 billion dollars for its promotion world wide, giving it away almost for free. I started the car and the digital map on my dashboard showed me the best possible route to the office.” 
9:00: Arrive at Office  “Outside the gates of the office, the security guard had a difficult time clearing away the protestors in front of the company headquarters carrying placards referring to the company as "the wireless killer machine".

10:00 Meeting  “Just at 10:00, my mobile rang in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting, the marketing director briefed us on the current situation about the wide spread protest in the bloc of developing countries due to the dumping of mobile phones. They were being the greatest environmental threat, larger than even plastics. So I decided to go there, for a first hand eyewitness. I got my tickets booked through my laptop, which gave me hundreds of options for the trip. I chose one according to my preference, which was already entered into the computer. Compared to the booking opportunity on my new internet mobile prototype, my PC had unlimited information from various agents and my ticket was booked in moments.”

12:00 Lunch   My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just in time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Again, the traffic service guided me to the closest empty parking space for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my credit card as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight   “I checked in using the e-ticketing information at the automatic booth ñ the system identified me and then issued my boarding pass. I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane because the system interfered with the aviation systems.  This had recently lead to the worst crash in aviation history.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination    “When I arrived at my destination, I switched the mobile on and realised that I had 30 missed calls. I tried to call the marketing manager through my mobile but I kept getting the message that his mobile is switched off. Then I realised that due to excessive ringing, many people are now opting to leave their phones turned off. I attempted to send a wireless email using my WAP phone, but soon found that the system was very complicated, the manual was back in the office, and I was in a rush to get to my meeting.  Therefore, I sent him an SMS confirming my arrival. I turned to my laptop, browsed through the net and easily located the best and nearest place of hiring a car. I rented a car and proceeded to the business dinner.”

18:00 Business Dinner   “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to meet with the Environment Minister to discuss the unrest. First, I attempted to change my flight plans on the mobile internet, however, I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up.  M-commerce gave very little local information and took a long time to find what I needed. Therefore, I used my credit card in a pay phone to ring the airline and then asked a passer-by for a nearby hotel.  I called home to explain that I would be a day late. However, my wife also had her mobile switched off. Back in the hotel an hour later, I used the simpler and cheaper option of contacting her though video conferencing on my laptop. At first she was disappointed in my changed itinerary, but I finally assuaged her through my facial expressions.”

22:00 Local Entertainment   “After the video call, I found I was still wide-awake. I gave the mobile one last try - surely I could find some local information on nearby entertainment - it could not be that hard, could it? However, I just could not get the system to tell me anything! It was pouring with rain by this time so I just went and had a drink in the hotel bar before organising with reception to give me a wake up call in the morning.  I dozed off to sleep while a DVD movie played on my laptop screen.”

Scenario Three: Futile Mobile” (fragmentation and resistance)  January 31, 2005   7:30 Wake Up    “I didn't actually wake up until 7:50, and then just by chance. There was a power outage during the night, so when I glanced at the alarm clock it flashed 12:00. Fortunately I was only 20 minutes late and not more. One week ago I was selected by France Telecom to receive a free Nokia internet mobile phone, along with wireless internet service for one year, as part of a promotion designed to encourage mobile internet phone use in Europe. I heard that one of the features was a wake up alarm, however I have no idea how it works. The phone is somewhat complicated and not many of my friends or colleagues have a mobile internet phone. I need to look into that over the weekend. Normally I would check my stock quotes in the paper and listen to the news on television during breakfast, but I now had no time for either. I rushed into the shower, dressed quickly, and raced out the door. My schedule was such that I had to drive into work today. As I rolled onto the A223 there was a delay from the moment I entered the on ramp. I had come too far for an alternate route and after 30 minutes of traffic jams, found that an accident had occurred. I had only traveled five kilometers and still had 30 to go. If only I had known!”

9:00 Arrival at Office  “I finally located a parking spot at the far end of the lot. Due to the traffic and the alarm clock, I was 30 minutes late to work this morning - not a good start on an extremely busy day in which I was due out of town. I entered the building, flashed my ID card to security and took the elevator up to 15. There was no coffee left in the machine at this hour, but who has time for coffee with only half an hour until a meeting I planned on preparing for at 9:00? No time to spare.”

10:00 Meeting at Office   “At 9:55 an important client called and I soon became engrossed in conversation. At 10:10 my secretary buzzed me that the marketing director was wondering where I was. I hung up with the client and scurried off to my meeting. The meeting was only scheduled until 11:00, however, several new items were added to the agenda. My stomach started grumbling at noon. Realising we were soon to be done, I made the excuse that I had to use the restroom and left the conference room in order to find some lunch - if I ordered now, it would be here by the time the meeting finished and I would have time to eat before leaving for the airport. However, now that I was outside the conference room, I realised I could not walk to my office to use the phone, as there was a window overlooking the corridor from the conference rooms and the restrooms were in the opposite direction. My mobile phone! I thought I would use my phone to place the order from outside the conference room, but as soon as I reached into my pocket, grabbed the device, and started to dial the number, I found that I did not have any reception in the inner corridor of the building. I guess I was not going to have any lunch today.”

12:00 Lunch  “Rather than worry further about eating, I decided to call the airline to confirm my departure time. Twenty minutes after being on hold and fighting my way through the elaborate menu of choices, I finally got through to an airline operator. As my flight was on time, I was now rushing out of the office. On the way to the airport, I remembered having heard a news report a month ago which stated that New Zealand businessmen were using their mobile phones to access information from the Internet, specifically with respect to travel and airlines. What a great service that is, however, in Europe this technology is not widely accepted and used so far. If it were, it certainly would have made my life easier today, as I am now under great stress attempting to catch my flight.”

14:00 Catch Flight  “As I arrived at the terminal, there was a huge queue of travellers waiting to check in. Fortunately, it was announced that the flight was now delayed due to de-icing of the plane. If it weren't for the new delay, I would have certainly missed the flight. I took this brief moment to call my stockbroker, as there was a trade I wanted to make after hearing a news report in the car on the way to the airport. I went to the stock quote option on my internet mobile and thought, "What a great gadget this is - I never would have been able to place this trade otherwise." No sooner did I think this, but I soon found that the my phone's network would not support this transaction.  No stock trading today afterall. "This phone is more frustration than help," I now contemplated. “

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination  “We arrive on time due to a strong tail wind. I found my way through customs quite easily, as I am accustomed to the routine with the passport and papers and keep them handy in my breast pocket. I next reached the car rental counter. I was issued keys for the car and asked the attendant to map out directions to my destination. I get off to a good start, but soon become confused, as I am in a new area. I consult the map, but almost get into an accident when I take my eyes off the road. I decided to pull over for a moment. I asked a passer-by for directions and carried on to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner  ”The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and reached for my mobile phone to call the airline and reschedule my travel plans. As I switched on the power, the screen flashed in big block letters: "NO SERVICE." "Why doesn't the phone work outside of my countryÖIím only two hours away?" I thought. I excused myself from the table and went to find a pay phone. Unfortunately, the pay phones in this country take only phone cards and not change. I had to go out to the store across the street, buy a phone card, return to the restaurant, place the call, and finally return to the dinner 25 minutes later. My wife! I returned to the public phone, dialled home, and was connected to my daughter. My wife came on a moment later, just as the phone card expired. At least my daughter will be able to tell my wife that I will not be home this evening. Through the window, I spotted a flower shop across the street, braved the snow once again, and sent flowers home. I returned to the table for the second time, having been gone at this point for one hour. Fortunately, we were done for the night and so we arranged to meet in the morning. I then set out for the car. The waiter had drawn me a map of how to get to the hotel I spotted on the way to the restaurant and I drove there - only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

22:00 Local Entertainment.   ”Once I had checked in at the hotel, I found I was still wide-awake. I thought I would attempt to find some local entertainment information. I consulted the phone book and found a movie theatre in the neighbourhood. I wanted to call the theatre to learn the schedule, but the hotel phone system was not working due to the snow storm - the phone lines were down outside the hotel. Of course the mobile phone isn't working here - maybe I should simply give the phone back to France Telecom. It hasn't helped me at all today - the day I have needed it most thus far. I decided to call it a night and went to the hotel desk to request a knock on the door in the event that the phones are still not working in the morning for a wake-up. I'm certainly not relying on the digital alarm clock in the hotel room.”

Scenario Four: “Local Mobile”.  (acceptance and fragmentation)     7:30 Wake Up    “The alarm on my mobile went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, rolling out the bigger screen on the mobile to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. I also took the opportunity to do a quick scan of the local traffic conditions as I had to drive into work today ñ the traffic service on the mobile recommended a different route than normal as there had been a major accident on the A223. As I drove into work I kept the big screen exposed and followed the directions from the service.”

9:00 Arrive at Office   “The mobile beeped gently once as it identified me for the automatic security in the parking building and the screen flashed up with the closest empty parking space. I checked my schedule on the smaller screen as I waited for the lift up to the 15th floor and my office. The coffee was piping hot as I grabbed a cup just outside the lift ñ my mobile had notified the coffee machine as we entered the building.”

10:00 Meeting   “Just on 10:00 my mobile vibrated gently in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting I suddenly realised I had forgotten to organise some lunch so I used the small screen to discreetly place my order. I also checked that my flights were all on schedule for the afternoon ñ no problems there. This was all so simple as my mobile system knew all my preferences and anticipated what I would be wanting.”

12:00 Lunch  “My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Once again, the traffic service guided me and directed me to the closest empty parking for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my mobile as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight  “I checked in using the e-ticketing information on my mobile at the automatic booth ñ the system also identified me so it issued my boarding pass. Unfortunately, I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane; the system was not supported once I was out of the country.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination   “When I arrived at my destination I had to dig around in my briefcase to find my physical passport. I knew it was there somewhere but it had been a while since I had needed it. At the rental car counter I absentmindedly held out my mobile but the man behind the counter shook his head, their system would not recognise it. So that meant another search for a credit card and my driverís licence! The rental car company provided a local mobile with the car and I fiddled with it as I waited for the paperwork to be completed. I tried to find the traffic information but couldnít get the system to recognise any of my commands. The rental car assistant pointed out that I needed to hold the control key down to get into the menu I needed. I shook my head in frustration, why are all these systems so different? As I climbed into the car I managed to push the wrong button on the mobile and cancelled all the directions I needed and there was no way I could get back into it again. Eventually I stopped and asked someone for directions to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner  “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and I reached for my mobile to reorganise my travel. Unfortunately that feeling didnít last long as I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up and using my credit card in a pay phone to ring the hotel recommended by the waiter. It took several minutes to change my flights on the phone as well ñ I had got so used to my mobile taking care of identification and other such details. Then I had to call home to explain that I would be a day later than planned. My wife wasnít too happy about the change in plans so I thought I would send her some flowers ñ an easy task on my mobile at home, but not here! The waiter drew me a map of how to get to the hotel and I drove there ñ only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

 

Beyond The Internet. 

Author: Charles W. Schmidt, freelance science writer living in Portland, Maine. Special thanks goes to Neil Gershenfeld of the MIT Media Laboratory for providing invaluable background and insight in technology futures. Thanks also goes to Charlie Plot (California Institute of Technology), David Tennenhouse ( Intel Corporation), John Seely Brown (Xerox Corporation), Kris Pister (University of California, Berkeley), Mark Grey and Jim Closs (NASA), John Ledyard (California Institute of Technology), and Cherry Murray (Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies).

Mr. Schmidt explores the second wave of connectivity, where "intelligence" is embedded in the objects and materials of our daily lives, creating huge and ubiquitous networks.  Scientific understanding will continue to grow.  Environmental gains are possible.   

Scenario One: Beyond the Internet.  (Phrased within the context of a scenario.)  “In 2002, we are surrounded by computers.  Computers in 2010 disappear altogether. According to the pioneers of information technology (IT) that's exactly what happened.  Not that this world is a world of written ledgers and the abacus -- far from it. What it means is by 2010 computers are literally absorbed by their surroundings and embedded in walls, carpets, toasters, neckties, and even our own bodies. As computing dissolves into the environment it becomes as pervasive as the electricity flowing through society.  Some scientists suggested the earth will be wrapped in a "digital skin," transmitting signals over the Internet almost as a living creature relays impulses through its nervous system. Millions of sensors probe and monitor highways, cities, factories, forests, oceans, and the atmosphere. Some are linked to orbiting satellites -- extending the reach of this digital infrastructure into outer space.  Scientists refer to this scenario as ubiquitous or pervasive computing. Either way, the bottom line is the same: an unprecedented level of connectivity. The international consulting firm Ernst & Young predicted that by 2010 there will be nearly 10,000 telemetric devices (meaning devices that transmit or receive data) for every person on earth.  Because in 2010, managing connectivity on a scale like  that is too difficult for humans to do on their own,  network management will be partially delegated to software programs called agents that learn about their users and act autonomously on their behalf. The way humans interact with computers changes profoundly. Instead of typing commands into a passive box, humans use speech and physical gestures to communicate with computers much as they do with anyone else. Computer networks are adaptive, intelligent, and self-organizing.”

Scenario Two: The Networked Physical World.  (Phrased within the context of a scenario.)  “Down in the trenches of MIT's famous Media Laboratory, Associate Professor Neil Gershenfeld reflects on the bits and the atoms. "The bits are the good stuff," he muses, referring to these units of digital information. "They consume no resources, they travel at the speed of light, we can copy them, they can disappear, we can send them around the globe and construct billion dollar companies." Contrasting them with physical objects, he says, "The atoms are the bad stuff. They consume resources, you have to throw them away, they're old-fashioned."  In 2010, a  continuing challenge for the 21st Century is to find ways to "bring the bits into the physical world."   In this world, computers are brought into the stuff of everyday life by embedding them into ordinary objects and machines.   Inexpensive servers bring Internet access to household appliances and office equipment. People take for granted that microwave ovens download cooking instructions from the Web or that alarm clocks reset themselves after a power outage. The cheapest gateways to the Internet comprises sensors and radiofrequency (RF) tags linked to networked microprocessors. An RF tag is actually a silicon chip that emits an electronic signal in the presence of the energy field created by a device called a reader. Tags already have some familiar uses in 2002 -- for instance driving through an automatic toll booth causes an RF tag to boot up and identify your car.   In 2010, tags and readers are linked to the Internet, opening up new worlds of opportunities. “Smart" fridges monitor tagged products, learn food preferences and shopping schedule, and eventually buy all a household’s groceries.  Washing machines monitor colors -- toss a tagged red sock into a pile of white laundry, and the machine will shut down. Tagged pill bottles in a medicine cabinet allow doctors to monitor patient compliance with prescriptions, remotely.  Companies will be able to determine the whereabouts of all their products, all the time. This capability provides some important environmental benefits: real-time product tracking  enables manufacturers to save millions in cash and energy resources by shifting to a process that matches production to consumption, item for item. Tagged products become self-managing; able to convey their identity and composition to networked trash containers and recycling centers.” 

Scenario Three: Here Come the Jetsons.  (Phrased within the context of a scenario.)    “In 2010, scientists devised ways to ship bits rather than atoms to manufacture products remotely. Printers called "personal fabricators" are used to make things like toy jeeps and wine glasses in the household. In 2002, scientists at the Media Lab were already involved in printing semiconductors, transistors, and other electronic devices as if they were made out of paper. Simple three-dimensional objects have already been printed as well, with more complicated structures just around the corner.   In 2002 – 2010, scientists contemplat the environmental upsides and downsides of personal fabrication. On the one hand, the technology could save energy by reducing energy expenditures involved in transporting a product to its point of use. On the other, three-dimensional printing could inundate society with objects, in the same way the "paperless office" is in reality saturated with more paper than ever.  Scientists eventually find a way to make  the personal fabricator  environmentally feasible through equipping it with a "defabricator" that breaks objects down to their constituent materials.”  

Scenario Four: The Future of Remote Sensing.    (Phrased within the context of a scenario.)  “In 2010, if one looks into the digital world, the digital world is looking right back at you. Advances in remote sensing give computer networks the eyes and ears they need to observe their physical surroundings. Sensors detect physical changes in pressure, temperature, light, sound, or chemical concentrations and then send a signal to a computer that does something in response. Billions of these devices form rich sensory networks linked to digital backbones that put the environment itself online. Dense arrays of networked sensors extract as much "information per unit volume," about the environment as possible. In the area of smart dust, much of the research driving small, inexpensive sensors is found in the area of MEMS, short for microelectromechanical systems. Scientists working with MEMS  create tiny electronic features from silicon, some of them smaller than a red blood cell. MEMS extends to sensor design as well. “Smart dust" is designed to be so small it literally floats in the air. These minute devices are self-powered and contain tiny on-board sensors and a computer on a scale of just five square millimeters -- roughly the size of an aspirin tablet.  In 2001 it becomes possible to reduce their size to a single millimeter  and to airborne dust-like dimensions by 2005.  The idea is to use them by the thousands as interconnected networks that communicate with each other.  Smart dust "motes" sprinkled out of airplanes monitoring the atmosphere or hovering in the dark recesses of factory stacks monitoring pollution, or used in farms to measure soil chemistry and pesticide levels. In 2002, it is possible to pack the motes with the computing power of the first Intel computer chip -- just 200 microns long (one micron = one millionth of a meter) -- for about 10 cents.  In 2010, continuing advances in MEMS push the price down below a penny.” 

 

Blueprint to the Digital Economy: Creating Wealth in the Era of E-Business.
Author:  Don Tapscott, Alex Lowry, and David Ticoll  1998 McGraw-Hill.  (Scenario written by Millennium Project staff.)

This book took the combined labors of three editors and various expert authors drawn from academia, research and corporate leadership.  The 20 essays focus on industrial transformation, new rules for competing in the e-age, the computer- based network model and changes in government structure and policy in a networked world .  Major trends in digital computing:  1) more changes coming as computers combine with information technology; the “N-Gen” – those who ranged from two to 22 years old in 1999 will play an increasingly critical role in e-commerce; 2) new rules for competition are emerging – increasingly, companies are becoming learning rather than knowing organizations; more focus on corporate creation of new markets and industries instead of simply improving operations; 3)  industries are transforming, such as, for example Boeing moving beyond the aircraft industry to the software industry and plblishing is increasingly moving operations into online servers; 4) business is increasingly depending upon information technology; inter-networks with customers, suppliers, distributers, channel partners and workers in remote areas is growing; 5) e-business is transforming the relationship between business and government—increasingly, transactions occur in intangible cyberspace rather than in geographic or national space. 

Scenario of the E-Business Community (EBC):  In 2010, networks and e-networks define the rules of competition. New “value propositions” are drawn and on a continual basis as networks inter-connect small and large players. Information becomes more transparent; considered by 2010 a civil virtue,  but the transparency of information foils attempts at traditional competitive intelligence (CI) to discern a competetor’s next conceptual “value proposition” or approaches to the market.   In this world, new “value propostions”  quickly transpose concept-to- word-of-mouth and finally, to implementation at an accellerated rate.  Traditional CI cannot keep up the knowledge of the “corporate “Jonses” within an industry.  The world of E-business has become similar to the wonder of moth-like activity, where CEOs are no longer able to conduct traditional environmental scanning techniques to “see” what their competitors are doing;  rather, like moths, they can only “sense” competitors’s next moves, not knowing fully if the current competitor is really an ally or foe?  In the world of the EBC, there is endless  restructuring – and in some cases, “creative destruction”-to-consruction- re-construction of industries.    Mass-customization is no longer as effective a decade before.  Firms must also provide value-added services on a much more individualized basis, more rapidly.  Early market entry is fragile: the key to survival is good management in the near-term, and if managed correctly, the medium term. If an e-business is really lucky,  it will survive in the long term.  Supply chains break down rapidly so that the birdsong of “disintermediation” or “re-intermediation” continues to empower the end-user and consumer.  The new digital world creates an addendum to a plethora of new types of value propositions – more specialized units become better at responding to specific customer needs (in 2002, some called it “disaggregation and specialization”).   EBC unfolds to birth a typology of four cluster-types of e-business by 2010 (today, we are seeing these emerge): open markets, aggregation markets, value chains, and alliances.  In this uncertain world, a new company survives because long-range planning is drawn and re-drawn in excruciating detail even before the first page of a business plan “hits the draftboard”.   Companies typically plan scenarios on matrices of possibilities and factors so as to envision alternative futures and prepare a multiplicity of planning so that successful trajectories within the changing business environment can be more readily perceived.  This is the world of “organizational plasticity” where survival means innovation, mastering relationships, and business design.  It is a world of knowledge in which knowledge mediates the law of increasing rather than diminishing returns.   The future of a company begins with self-identity.  Unlike a human being growing into a self-identy by puberty, a company by 2010 will have to define exactly what that identiy is, why, and what it will become. In addition, companies will have to plan exit strategies before the first day the doors open for businesss.   The old “multi-divisional firm (M-Form organization) gives way to the E-form (ecosystem) form – totally focused on value proposition, markets, and potential markets within ecosystems.  The term, “discontinuous change” in 2002,   was at that time, only familiar in MBA programs.  By 2010, it becomes the new catch-phrase at the office water cooler. Instead of discussing matters of gossip, employees discuss matters of strategy and “discontiuous change” on a daily basis’; and this also includes the janitor.  

 

The Future of Libraries to 2020. 
Digital Thinking Network (DTN); headed by Daniel Erasmus and Niall Murphy.  The DTN is dedicated to the networking of individuals and organizations considering the depth and magnitude of the changes that Information Technology brings to the world.

The story: Here she was, walking down the street: blonde and beautiful. And, since they had met last Saturday on the beach, Fronso also knew that she was quite bright. He had taken a day off from his MBA studies in Rotterdam, occupied a small square on a crowded beach outside The Hague, and become involved in a conversation with his new “neighbors” – a Dutch guy and this blond beauty. Soon the conversation focused on one of the woman’s prime interests: the cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sandy dunes. The Dutch guy could keep up in the conversation, but Fronso hastily excused himself, so as not to show his ignorance. What a disaster! He knew he would only get one more chance to talk to her, but this time he had to be prepared- no matter what it took. Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes! How in the world could he develop insights in such a subject within a reasonable time? While walking back to his room, Fronso thought about his options…

Scenario One: Revenues From Bricks and Clicks.  Key Issues: people pay membership fee to get free access to copyrighted material; highly trained employees help members to locate and retrieve the desired content; direct physical interaction among users and between users and employees is important; publishers allow the use of  their copyrighted material in these facilities.    “The internet research didn’t yield much. Yes, he used the most advanced search engines, and even sent out search agents to look for the desired content. No results, except the “South-Holland Rose Club” with a home-page in Dutch. Amazon.com didn’t yield any hits, and neither did the online search of the US or the Dutch National Library. Seven years ago the US National Library completed digitizing all its books and provided full online access. The National Libraries of most European Countries announced unlimited online access in the following two years. In the same year (2015) the last Dutch public library in downtown Amersfoort was closed. If the Mayor’s wife hadn’t worked there it would have been closed years sooner. The public libraries with short opening hours and old employees did not serve the needs of a quickly changing world anymore. Research was undertaken faster online from home, all magazines had their online-versions and many of them were even distributed online. People would print individual pages on high-quality double-page printers or view them on portable e-screens. Furthermore, copyrighted material could not be printed but viewed for five days before it deleted itself.   

In general, however, copyrights were not an issue anymore. Yes, the best-selling authors were still publishing hard-copy books with copyrights, though because of their sheer quantities, production of  these books was cheap. This served the mass market. At the low volume end of the market, a high-end publishing had emerged with exclusive limited-edition books that were considered art-pieces for their beauty and craftsmanship. Most other authors published directly online and distributed their content freely or for a marginal download fee. In the past their salaries had been so meager that they couldn’t even pay their rent, and a book’s revenue was eaten up by the high charges for low-volume publishing and the overheads of the publishing houses. Now many authors were sponsored directly by companies or wealthy individuals, either for cultural reasons or to be associated with their success.   The same picture had transpired in the academic publishing scene: few bestsellers were published as hardcopies, the rest was published online and for free or a marginal fee. Small editions had made them prohibitively expensive and by the time a book was published, its content was often outdated. Why bother with a hard-copy publication? The fame from on-line publishing made many publications more beneficial, especially for the high feedback they received and which could be worked into the next edition.   

Back to the Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes. Nothing in the English-speaking world. The Dutch National Library didn’t contain anything, and besides, Fronso didn’t speak Dutch. That meant there was only one more place he could turn to: Ogogo’s. This international chain had opened its  first Dutch location in Amsterdam three years ago and due to its huge success shortly thereafter in Rotterdam. Membership at Ogogo’s had quite a price, but people were happy to pay it. Ogogo’s were places to meet in a quiet atmosphere with other members, enjoy the exclusive book collection in comfortable chaise lounges or discuss the latest publications. And of course: they were places to research. Over the years the Internet had automated everything that could be automated. By doing so the profession of the librarian who catalogued books and searched databases had become obsolete.    

At the same time the profession of the “Accessors” arose: highly trained and highly paid people who located content where search-engines failed. They knew which databases existed, how to program search agents, or how to find documents in foreign languages and translate them. Ogogo’s in Rotterdam employed three Accessors per shift, who helped people with their research.  It is not surprising that more than half of Ogogo’s revenue came from corporations who paid a membership both as an added benefit for their employees, as well as to give them access to Ogogo’s knowledge network (databases & Accessors). In addition members could log on from the Internet to Ogogo’s global proprietary knowledge network, which offered unlimited access to proprietary content providers. The typical Ogogo’s member had money, was well educated, but had no time to waste.      

Ogogo’s parent company had developed an additional revenue stream by establishing OrgLib, which was running the libraries of universities. Just as caterers ran a university’s canteen, libraries were run by OrgLib or its competitors. But these libraries were usually understaffed and often limited to the academic universe.     Fronso didn’t have time to stand in line, so he signed up for a one-day trial membership at Ogogo’s in downtown Rotterdam. Five minutes after he approached an Accessor with his question the man had located a Dutch book, which contained a chapter on the issue. Within seconds the translation engine transferred it into English. While Fronso waited eagerly for the printout the Accessor stopped a young for woman who walked by. “Hey aren’t you studying sociology? This young man has a very particular interest…” The next thing Fronso knew was that he was sitting with her and a cup of tea as she discussed the habits of the population in the southern Netherlands. Half an hour later he had forgotten about Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes and his blond passion. He was going out for dinner with the sociologist (and became an Ogogo’s member).”  

Scenario Two: Money In the Cyber World – Profitable OnLine Libraries   Key issues: technologies track usage of copyright material; no physical libraries anymore; everything that can be, has been automated; librarians replaced by intelligent agents/discussion forums; the majority of authors continue to publish for direct remuneration.    “His first thought was: where could I find a book on such a specific subject? Local libraries had closed their doors about 5 years ago, because content was abundant,  they were not agile enough to keep the pace with the increasing amount of available information, and they couldn’t handle the increased competition of professional online libraries. These libraries offered the latest content in a highly user friendly manner. Initially trying to build their own internal networks and to keep the control over the materials available, traditional libraries had undergone a phase of enormous transformations. These were due to the profusion of new possibilities of document-delivery, non-uniformity of interfaces, ever-changing search engines and the sheer range of technical skills required in the work place. Libraries and information service staff had encountered a lot of difficulties in keeping up with the pace of change. Not so online content providers, which provided (for a small monthly fee) highly efficient access to all kinds of content: books, magazines, music, videos, proprietary on-line databases, search agents. And as these services were available around the clock, people were happy to pay for them.   The final push came when most governments stopped subsidizing existing libraries. Instead, Governments invested to make their national libraries available online. By now, only very old books could be found in traditional libraries, and regardless, these were already digitalized and also available on-line. Ironically, Fronso’s uncle was the last Executive Director of the Guttenberg Project. The beginning of Project Gutenberg was 50 years ago, when Michael Hart was given an operator's account containing $100,000,000 of computer time by the operators of the Xerox Sigma V mainframe at the Materials Research Lab at the University of Illinois. By that time more computer time was available than people able to use computers. He realized that the greatest value created by computers would not be computing, but would be the storage, retrieval, and searching of what was stored in the libraries. The Beginning of the Gutenberg Philosophy, the premise on which Michael Hart based Project Gutenberg was that anything that can be entered into a computer can be reproduced indefinitely. The concept of Replicator Technology was simple: once a book or any other item (including pictures, sounds, and even 3-D items can be stored in a computer), then any number of copies can and will be available. Everyone in the world, or even not in this world (given satellite transmission) can have a copy of a book that has been entered into a computer.    The physical libraries now only preserve the history and thoughts of mankind throughout the centuries; one cannot borrow a book anymore.    People still collect books, and the selection of books was easy through electronic online catalogues. On-line bookstores delivered books within one day, and all libraries on-line were also offering this service as an added value. Selected chapters could be read on screen, or on PDA, or one could order an e-book. Did Fronso ever hear somebody talking about his research topic? Not that he remembered!   So the only solution left: the Internet! The school offered all students a subscription to the WWLibrary.com. That was very useful and also very common among business schools. Based on credits per individual, institutions could enrich their customers’ experience, or their employees’ performance by offering them this kind of support. Very handy, but his credit offered by the school is almost zero, and he hasn’t finalized the research for other class assignments. He could start searching for free information available, but whatever was for free was not organized and the research was very difficult.    Since technologies have been developed which allowed the authors to track and limit usage to their copyrighted material, everything was made available on-line, although everybody had to pay for it. Low costs, high speed and availability of electronic publishing technologies were the factors that encouraged authors to publish directly on-line, and, as such, digital libraries were created automatically. Many authors, although not the majority, continued to publish for direct remuneration. Technology allowed them to choose the web-libraries they wanted to be present in, and also to get the money transferred directly to their accounts. Payments were made on-line safely, and people had become used to this method. Everything that could be automated has been automated. Schools, businesses, social and educational communities, were paying subscription and usage rights for different digital libraries. There was a burst in the development of digital libraries when software agents were perfected, representing a piece of software having both the ability to perform a search and to exercise preferences over how this search is performed. Thus, agents now have the ability to reason about how they use their resources. In other words, an agent doesn’t have to fulfill every request for service, only those consistent with its preferences. A traditional computer program did not have this reasoning ability.   Moreover, since the agents were autonomous, they can and must negotiate with other agents to gain access to other resources or capabilities. The process of negotiation often consists of a "conversation sequence", where multiple messages are exchanged according to some prescribed protocol, which itself can be negotiated. Therefore intelligent agents, in some cases discussion forums, and online book communities, which ensure access and awareness, have replaced librarians.     “Programming of Intelligent Agents” was Fronso’s favorite topic in the university. He knew how easy his life would be if he just had some more creditsbut he couldn’t wait until the credits for the next month were charged to his account.     He entered Concordia, the Internet Café next door, and while waiting for his hot chocolate, typed in: “Desperate help needed: Cultural habits of Dutch Rose-Gardening in Sand Dunes - Anybody there?….” Luckily, somebody replied quickly… Danae. The conversation continued over the course of four more hot chocolates. After three hours of discussions Fronso discovered that Danae was living in Amsterdam, and they decided to continue the conversation over dinner. Meeting point: DTN Building. Recognition sign: Danae’s red cap. Time: one hour later.  Fronso arrives, and, surprise! There was only one person wearing a red cap in front of the DTN building, and the cap was covering beautiful, long, brown hair that flowed in the evening’s wind…”

Scenario Three: Downloads.  Key Issues: physical location fills an important function for meeting, socialising, discussing; physical books are still important; new search engines; universal access; functional fragmentation.      “His first thought was to go online to search and download a book from Boogle, the worldwide library he had used few years ago during his undergraduate studies.  But the Boogle website displayed a message that the company was under investigation by the European Community’s Justice Minister. Fronso remembered the story he had read in the Financial Times a few weeks agoexplaing the turbulent history of e-libraries around the globe. In 2004 a consortium of private venture capitalists had launched the first e-library which had allowed the downloading of entire books.  The concept was based on enabling the download of thousands of old books for free and the download of new books for a small fee. Within a couple of months the idea became a global success and other private and public libraries went on-line.  Search engines and translation tools were highly developed and the daily number of downloads surpassed 1 million.   But after the initial success, the magic formula started to falter.  Criminal elements had launched viruses that changed not only the content of books but also cracked the code that guaranteed the payment of a single copy of recently launched books.  Suddenly thousands of authors demanded the exclusion of their publication from e-libraries.  E-libraries tried to resist but after a group of novel authors went to court demanding millions in non-paid copyrights all e-libraries were immediately closed until a legal agreement could be reached. Fronso’s second option waited at the square in front of his building, a medium-sized library that he had used when he had arrived in town and wanted to learn Dutch.   When he entered the library he saw dozens of people drinking coffee and discussing stories in cafeterias inside the library.  There were three different cafeterias (and two under construction): one with Italian style coffee, another with Indonesian desserts and a third with Diet juices.  Ten years ago, after years of declining public interest, libraries started to incorporate small shops and cafes to provide a enjoyable atmosphere for social contacts. Studies had predicted that with this “social entertainment atmosphere” the frequentation of libraries could be increased by 400%, compared with traditional ones.   Fronso also remembered the first time he visited that place.  It was his second month in Rotterdam and he had decided to try to read a book in Dutch.  Looking for the section of books for kids, he had asked a nice old woman who was there with her 9-year-old grandson for some help.  As all Dutch, she spoke some English and recommended him a 45-page book: “New Adventures of Peter Pan”, which  she said she had already read to her two  sons and five grandchildren.  He had also used one of the recent developments of Dutch libraries: interest related groups that met weekly in the library to chat about specific issues, and get to know people with same interests. He had Italian friends who used to frequent one of these groups in Venice and he could increasngly see how people were falling in love through this medium and getting married.   This time Fronso’s task was more complicated.  He really needed to find a good book or article or video about Dutch gardening in dunes because his “pretend-to-be-girlfriend” had said that she loved the subject.  From the school he tried to find the book on the Internet.  He found the book, but just for sale, and because his objective with the girl had an horizon of no more than 6 weeks (his average time with each girlfriend!) he did not want to invest to much money on it. Prices of book were rising, not only due to the expenses of producing small runs of exclusive editions but also because the cost of paper was increasing due to environmental concerns in developing countries.   At the entrance of the library sat the Internet terminals.  He stopped and typed “dunes+flowers+gardening”.  The computer posed some questions to refine the search.  Fronso answered speaking and the voice-recognition terminal had a 30 seconds chat with Fronso.  Finally he asked for the option “books in this library”. Immediately the Internet terminal connected to the central database Dutch Library System, where the government already spent millions to catalog all books in the Netherlands in just one database. From this, it found not only books in this library, but also presented links to libraries in Rotterdam that had the book.

As there were five different recommendations from the software, he printed the recommendation and went for help with the librarian.  The librarian was a nice Dutch-Spanish girl who had just finished her studies in Latin Literature.  She was working part-time in the library and part time cataloguing Latin books in the search engine of the Dutch Library System.   They got into a conversation because she mentioned that her brother loved gardening and as a tech-nerd he bought a ScreenBook and paid for a subscription of all flower/gardening books available online.  Every week he used to downloaded one or two books and articles in his ScreenBook.  When he offered it to his sister, she did not like it, because after fifteen minutes her eyes started to be irritated and she realized that nothing could match a traditional print paper version.  She had also heard that last week the company web site was shut down because of rumors concerning legal problems.   After a 30-minute conversation with the young librarian Fronso totally forgot about flowers, gardening, and dunes.  He was going out for dinner with the librarian….”  

Scenario Four: Cyberization of the Traditional Model.   Key Issues: no physical libraries – only online databases; everyone has free access to internet; copyrighted information universally available on-line; search and translation technologies plus flexible software architectures people can download, but not print or copy.     “Twenty years ago, in 2001, he could have asked that nice old man who used to work as a librarian, and knew every book on the shelves of the library at the corner of his street. Today, the library is no more. All his experience has been translated into links to other information sources and all the books have been transformed in digital files. Libraries of the world have been converted into one huge database, and every citizen has free Internet access. True, the search technologies allowed everybody to have instant on-line access at books, publications and magazines, and they can translate anything that is available in cyberspace, but how long would it take for him to find this particular book?    One option would be to try the Dutch National Library site, the only place where, for no cost, he could type the precious key words in the search engine, though would he find the right book in time? As Government services had not improved much in the last decades, and although all countries now subsidized their own National Online Library, it was for education purposes only. Sometimes you may find thousands of files with the same name, since flexible software had been created to support the organization of on-line content added daily by millions of people.    Nowadays the majority of authors accept the concept of making their work available online without receiving direct payment. They believe that free viewing both increases awareness and encourages people to buy the book or copy the file and pay for it. Unlike their predecessors, they do not charge the copyright to the Government, and, in addition, it is an honor to have their names listed in the Library Catalogue. This system continues to work, since a person can download the file from the library but cannot print or copy it, as there is technology available that ensures protection against digital copying.

Another option for him would be to spend a fortune by asking the CIA (Certified Intelligent Agent) to track the right material in less than one second. To achieve a good result, Fronso must indicate to the CIA his area of interest. This is easy, since the Agent can find even the unexpressed user’s needs by association between the movement of the person’s eyes on the computer screen and the display of different content.    Fronso is still thinking. After all, he is a poor student and cannot afford the expensive luxury of searching for knowledge. On the other hand, Fronso is under extreme time pressure, and Government services are not trustworthy enough. So, he decides to use the competent CIA instead of the free service, and starts browsing images of dunes covered with roses across the globe. After several seconds, Fronso stops and asks the CIA to do the search, hoping that his deposit payment will be enough for the agent to do the job. It does worry him though that these CIA’s can refuse a search request at any time they decide to do so, which seems to make  the moniker of “intelligent” a little ironical! Fronso also hopes his deposit will give him adequate negotiation powers against other agents performing similar requests.    “Search result found” is the message displayed on Fronso’s flexible screen. “Incredible”, thinks Fronso, “this agent is worth it, he found my book”! Fronso opens the message, and the book is there, called “Conspiracy of Perfumes in the Dutch Sands”, together with a message from the author.  The author is also a Dutch women who says…she wants to meet him this evening? Fronso does not know what to do. He must read the book by tomorrow but also he could go to the meeting and ask this old lady a couple of questions about roses. Yes, let’s do that, it will help him prepare better for the conversation with the blonde and beautiful woman from the beach.     After half an hour, Fronso arrives at the Concorde Club, and waits for the old lady to appear. He gets a message saying that his digital photo has already been delivered to the author, so she will easily recognize him. “Hello, nice to meet you!” Fronso turns his head and…the blonde and beautiful woman is here, she is the author of the book! After all, it seems that the CIA is indeed an intelligent agent….”

 

New Drivers and Diverging Trends: Petroleum Products Markets to 2020.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) – an independent firm providing insight into the energy future.  Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman, Joseph Stanslaw, CERA president and CEO.  Multiclient study. For more information please contact Kathleen Doherty at +1-617-498-9194.

Long term challenges and significant events may lead to opportunities and threats in the power and gas industry to 2020.   Key drivers include:  environmental pressures, new end-user technologies, and changing demographics.  These key drivers and forces were assessed through a series of workshops that led to a set of four scenarios to 2010. The next series of workshops over the next several months will extend the scenarios to 2020.  Each scenario is based on geopolitical and industry building blocks and were described in terms of the international economy, environmental issues, an assessment of energy and oil demand, regional refined product supply and demand, crude oil supply, crude oil price outlook.    A step-by-step entrain of events were described for each preliminary scenario to 2010.  Future CERO workshops will flesh-out the scenarios to 2020 in full narrative form by mid-year 2002.  This annotation will include the full  scenarios in the State of the Future, 2003 edition.   Scenario One: Kudzu Competition.  1995: Case-by-case wheeling; 1997: FCRC success rule; 2000: regional experiment; 2002 – 2010: Court order, corporate seperation, utility initiated write-offs, functioning pooled markets, investment minimized, focus on cheap upgrades, horozontal consolidation, second anti-trust breakup, rise of service firms. Scenario Two: Caught in the Muddle:   1995: Special Discounts, 1997: FCRC success rule, 2000: Regional experiment,  2002- 2010: crisis, sales of best assets, multiple write offs, barrier to exit, major consolidations, utility renaissance, IP PS on the bubble.  Scenario Three: Virtual Competition: 1995: Wholesale competition, 1997: slow depreciation, 2000: erosion of customer base, 2002-2010: growing unit costs, public sentiment shifts, utility role preserved, declining price ceilings imposed, outsourcing, IP P renaissance.  Scenario Four: Green Briar Path.  1995: wholesale competition 1997: rules delayed by CIS, 2000: Ozone Episodes, Fine particulate rules, 2002-2010: C02 concerns, presidential campaign issue, energy-environment set, tougher caps, energy issues, energy taxes, energy efficiency, coal retreat, investment boom, outsource bid tests.

 

The Age of Miracle and Wonder.
Author:Robert E Sawyer   Part of the “Canadian Authors on 2000” series commissioned for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Web site.

In 1961, Arthur C. Clarke, the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey,  coined the term,  “Clarke’s Law,” which says: “Any sufficiently advanced technololgy is indistiguishable from magic.”  Clarke’s writing had reflected thousands of years into the future, yet, today’s technology and current breakthroughs in innovation and technology are increasing exponentially, almost “magically”.  90% of all scientific advances were made in the 20th century alone; 10% since the beginning of written history.   Mr. Sawyer writes three scenarios that discuss the future of nanotechnology to the year 2020; the future of artificial intelligence to the year 3000; and lastly, a scenario about the future of articifical intelligence and food production.   
Scenario of Nanotechnology:  “The world of A.D. 2020 will be as incomprehensible to us as our world of today would have been to Queen Victoria during the last year of her reign. Consider nanotechnology, which is probably just around the corner. It will allow us to build things up atom by atom. You want a five-course dinner? A brick of platinum? A new kidney? Claudia Schiffer? No problem. We can build it for you.  At the most advanced levels, nanotechnology will tear down and build up atoms from constituent parts: the differences between a pile of old newspapers and gold-and-diamond jewelry are only in how the protons, neutrons, and electrons are arranged. Sophisticated nanotech gives you the alchemist's dream of transmutation; it gives everyone the Midas touch — and it means there is no longer any such thing as a scarce resource. Food, fuel, drinking water, clean air — whatever you want, in whatever quantity you want it, all free for the asking.  More: since nanotechnological machines will be able to make anything — including unlimited copies of themselves — the devices that perform this magic become essentially free of cost. Material needs disappear.  But having all your material needs taken care of does you no good if you're dead. No problem: if you manage to hold on until A.D. 2020 — another twenty years — it's likely that you will never die.  We already know what causes cells to age and cease to function; reversing the process will be one of the countless benefits of the Human Genome Project, currently nearing completion. Almost everyone born on this planet after 1950 will live to see not just the twenty-first century, but the twenty-second, and perhaps the twenty-third as well.  We also will be quite different from what we were; we will have entered the trans-human era.”

Scenario: Artificial Intelligence by the Year 3000:   “Within a century, it will be possible to scan a human mind and reproduce it inside a machine. Regardless of whether our minds are just very sophisticated analog computers, or whether they have a quantum-mechanical element (as Roger Penrose proposes), we will nonetheless be able to duplicate them artificially. Already, at the close of the second millennium, a transhumanist movement has begun; Christopher Dewdney is the principal Canadian spokesperson for it. This movement holds that uploading our consciousness into machines is desirable, since that will free us from biological aging and death. On the other hand (a decidedly biological metaphor), there is more to being human than just the networks of synapses in our brains; clearly, much of what we are is tied in intimately with our bodies. We may find that uploaded humans are not happy — indeed, are incapable of happiness or any emotion. Still, by the year 3000, there will doubtless be millions of uploaded people, including perhaps versions of some who are alive today. Indeed, religions might evolve around worshiping thousand-year-old computer-based avatars; with the acquired wisdom of a Methuselah, these entities might provide profound insights. Just as laws today are moving toward recognizing a woman's right to control her body and any separate sentience that may be contained within it, so too will the laws of the future recognize the right of humans to upload their consciousness and then dispose of the original biological versions of themselves; such eliminations will not be seen as suicides or murders, but rather as a natural, perfectly legal step, eliminating a no-longer-needed biological container and preserving the uniqueness of the individual.  But there will also be other thinking machines, with a separate genesis: we will doubtless develop artificial intelligence within a century. A key question humanity will have to consider as it does so is what, if any, constraints will we build into AI? It may, in fact, be dangerous to build conscious machines that are more intelligent than we are; just as intelligence may be an emergent property of sufficiently complex systems, so too may ambition and desire be emergent properties of sufficiently intelligent systems. One possible scenario is that by the dawn of the fourth millennium, there will be no biological humans (or even any uploaded echoes of them) left; Homo sapiens may have been entirely supplanted by its AI creations.”
Artificial Intelligence and a Food Production Scenario: “A more appealing (at least to us) scenario would see humankind carefully crafting AIs (including many embodied as robots) who will take care of all the necessary work of food production, manufacturing, recycling, and so on, leaving us to pursue other things. Although we used to consider the mastery of chess to be the pinnacle of human intellectual achievement, we've had to concede that it is simply a mathematical problem, and even today's primitive computers can do it better than the most skilled human. But there are other realms — including art, philosophy, and scientific theorizing — that, because of their intuitive, nonlinear nature, we may always be better at than any machine. Our AI servants may free humanity at the dawn of the fourth millennium to concentrate on these areas.”

 

Will That Be Cash or Cell Phone?; Wireless Payment Systems Might Mean Dialing In  Your Own Wallet.
Author: Katie Hafner (NYT) Late Edition – Final, Section G, Page 1, Column 1.

Cellular telephones are seen playing an increasingly important role in the future of e-commerce, or, m-commerce (mobile commerce).  Users in the marketplace will typically be able to dial-in  purchase information and confirmation. For example, a type of prototypical mobile payment system, PayPal.com, works like this: after opening an account on company's Web site, people can send money to one another via e-mail; once the money is sent, the amount is charged to credit card or bank account.  Various scenarios like this, present the case for using process in making retail purchases.  Richard Siber, analyst at Andersen Consulting, Boston, says while it will be years before m-commerce takes hold, but when it does, it will be bigger than e-commerce.

Scenario: M- Commerce a Cell Becomes a Powerful Tool.   In 2010, M-commerce becomes widespread.  It is bigger than e-commerce.  In this world, it becomes common to stand in front of vending machines that respond to the dial of a phone number posted on the machine.  The vending machine is equipped to transmit with the radio portion of a cell phone so that it can receive the call, or, with a transceiver that works with Bluetooth, a wireless connection that allows high-speed communication among devices within a short distance of one another.  The machine then offers a menu. You choose a soda for $1.10 cents and enter a PIN – out comes the softdrink.  Many other types of vending machines contain thumbprint recognition technology.  In Finland, a complicated system for point-of-sale purchases with cell phones was being developed in 2002, and came to fruition a decade later.  The financial services industry also increases ubiquitous systems  in which cell phones connect with the various banking systems.  Online financial services companies work with cell phones in the following way:  “after opening an account on the company's Web site, people send money to one another via e-mail.  The PayPal.com method calls for just an e-mail address (or eventually a phone number) to send, beam or dial-in a payment. Once the money is sent, the amount is charged to a credit card or bank account.   The recipient retrieves the money by filling out a form attached to the payment, which in turn registers the recipient for the service. PayPal.com then credits a credit card, deposits money to a bank account or sends out a check.   PayPal.com is especially popular for paying for merchandise on eBay and other online auction sites because it eliminates the need to send checks through the mail.” In 2002,  the service had some 350,000 users and more than 10,000 new users sign up each day. This indicator is important, when considering the many uses and possibilities that cell phones will have in the future. 

 

The Future of Television – Internet Business, Organizations, and Networks   . Digital Thinking Network (DTN), founded and funded by Niall Murphy and Daniel Erasmus.  The DTN website explores issues from the future of organization, the future of health, ideas, logistics, entertainment, etc.

The following four scenarios are based on multiple driving forces on a scenario matrix.  For the future of television, the vertical axis shows the extremes of one device to many devices. The horozontal axis shows the extremes of few providers to many dividers. 

Scenario One:  Couch Potato (one device and few providers)    “By 2020, newspaper headlines include:  advertising driven the mass market; incremental innovation in TV sets;  low rate of innovation, long product life cycle;  Social/group activity;  separation b/w TV and computer;  pop-corn viewers.  The winners in this world are big media conglomerates: i.e. CNN and vertical integration.  The loosers are traditional TV manufacturers and small content providers.    “Consumer in 2010:  It is the end of a long working day, I'm laying on the couch, watching a TV show and it's time for a short break. Suddenly Cindy appears introducing the new make-up

collection of a famous brand ,you switch to another channel and here is Cindy one more time but now for a shampoo ad for the same brand.  Mass advertisement is everywhere. I am a passive viewer just looking at my screen, having my bowl of pop-corn and thinking how the world behind the screen is just esthetically perfect.  

TV manufacturer in 2010:   TV is mainly present but it should follow the multiple international standards so to satisfy consumers worldwide. It should also increase efficient devices .TV is still a long product life cycle and manufacturer are taking advantages out of it. 

Broadcaster in 2010:   There is a big media conglomerates which determine the content of the TV, the consumer is just passive and is a follower.”

Scenario Two: Trapped in Paradise  (many devices and few providers)   “By 2020, newpaper headlines include:    new product launched on the market: smell generator to enhance broadcast experience;  Philips Electronics invests in hologram market; Cinema has hard time due to new in-house entertainment.  The winners in this world are: big media conglomerates; software development companies; and display technology firms.  The Loosers are: independent content providers;  traditional TV manufacturers; movie theaters; the consumer  

Consumer in 2010   It is Saturday 2 pm and dad decides to have some quality time with his children, after having worked the whole morning with his virtual company. Rather than going to the cinema, he switches on the house multi-mediasystem, and right in front of him he sees the 3D-hologram of Ted O'Gram, the famous showmaster of CMM, the multi-billion dollar media conglomerate. The children like this show, because they are able to answer online questions to the quizzes and, if they answer all the questions correctly, they will appear in the show for thousands of viewers.     However, the show just finished and dad swaps by voice activation to another channel, also of CMM. This is a holiday magazine. Suddenly, a 3-D image of a tropical beach appears on the big screen on the wall and we hear the sound of the waves through the surround-sound system. Two palms are projected as holograms in the middle of the living room, to enhance the vacation experience. On a separate screen a computer image is projected with the prices and booking information on the holiday. A scrolling text appears on the big screen, which says that all hotels are equipped with CMM's entertainment. 

TV manufacturer in 2010 TV manufacturers have had a difficult time to abandon the idea that the TV is a single device in the living room and compete now with a wide variety of new high tech companies in several nices of the display and entertainment market. To strengthen their position, traditional TV manufacturers formed alliances with the big media conglomerates in order to develop entertainment devices adapted to their needs.  Rather than supplying TV screens, the traditional TV manufacturers are now in a wide variety of display technologies, such as projection screens, 3-D images and holograms. They have developed new standards of control and have invested a lot of money in software for control of devices and user-interfaces. The media conglomerates use the new technology to bombard the consumers with standard entertainment shows and lots of advertisement.  

Broadcaster in 2010  The broadcasters have grown into multi-billion dollar conglomerates that have in house everything related to entertainment. The broadcasters have profitted from the availability of new technologies to enhance their shows, like big in-house screens, simultaneous projections, surround sound and video communication links. The broadcasters formed alliances with internet companies to have access to the web as well. The conglomerates try to attract as many consumers as possible, because they are paid from advertisements and on-line shopping.”

 

Scenario Three: Gadget (one device and many providers)    “In this world, the concept of TV is unchanged. It is a stand-alone (unlinked), immobile, social gadget, used only to present audio-visual programming. It competes with other devices (internet, radio) to be the entertainment and information center of the home. Technical innovation has been incremental - there are more features, but there have been no great conceptual leaps.  TV sets have advanced to the point where you can see several channels at the same time, perhaps by viewing from different angles (with audio distributed independently). Sources of information are extremely numerous - all connections into the home are exploited by various standards to reach the consumer, so you can get incoming signals through the cable, telephone, electricity, plumbing, and satellite providers. The competition is intense between info sources - most media advertising is used to direct the consumer toward a provider, where he can choose a subscription to accept any level of consumer advertising and content - based on price. Advertisers pay high fees, since they can reach highly targeted audiences.  Headlines:    AOL Buys Philips, making Time-Warner channels always appear first, whenever the set is turned on. You can reset this feature as easily as you used to program the VCR, by manipulating the small levers on the back underside of the TV set. However, VCR's are today very easy to program - you just talk to them; most popular TV software, third year in a row: Microsoft's Tuner Helper, to try to make the most of your 75000 possible channels;  Merde Inc. IPOs on Wall Street, promising delivery of digital signal through septic lines.  The winners are: TV manufacturers that can design (ex. flat panel, low energy, creative shapes, more potential locations), since tech know-how is widespread and well understood. Value-added comes from creativity and marketing;  sources that can establish a strong brand name among middle-aged people, as the population is aging. They can then rely on subscriber revenue, rather than advertising; search engines, to make sense of the vast streams of information available; engineering firms that manufacture equipment to receive signals on; different standards.  The loosers are: companies that spent a lot of money to acquire distribution capacity must spend still further amounts to attract viewers, who have unlimited choice; those who invested a lot in the combination technology of computer/TV, since people have decided that the computer is a separate device for information, not entertainment; the big media conglomerates, who finally gave up the battle to squash competition when the electric companies perfected their signal transmission technology. 

Consumer:  bombarded with adverts by sources of info: channels, distributors, and packagers; attracted by alternative sources of info, e.g. internet, WAP, and radio;  family watches (different programs) together;  all are familiar with using technology.     The family gathers around the TV set in the den after dinner. Since the size of the family has gradually been growing smaller, it now includes only the parents and their single daughter. Dad chose to subscribe to the electric company's TV menu. Even though the total number of available channels does not match ABC's, there is a good variety of family programs. Moreover, it comes with a discount on the monthly electric bill, which has been growing ever more expensive. The last oil shock, in 2005, resulted in sustained higher prices. With all the other electronic equipment and the charger for the electric car, electricity is now the family's second-biggest monthly bill. The daughter is not too upset though, since she can tune into the latest sites on the internet from her room, and her friends don't watch much TV anyway. How can anyone watch the same program for 30 minutes? 

TV Manufacturer:  outsources all manufacturing;  concentration on style, design, features, sorting capabilities, comfort, screen characteristics; interests are not in line with those of the broadcast industry.   The manufacturer just got back from a trip to Jakarta, having taken a trip to try to spot the emerging trends in TV designs favored by the youth there. Indonesia has become one of the best places to prospect for new styles, as its popularity as a manufacturing site led nearly all the world's production to locate there in the early 2000's. The country's economic recovery has allowed the city culture to blossom, and the abundance of electronic parts has been used by artists to make up fanciful devices. The manufacturer is hoping to find a way to attract American kids, who have largely abandoned TV. He is looking for a complement to his TV lines for middle-aged Americans, which is a mature, commodity market. The only way to make money these days is to catch a fad, and profit for a short time before the style is copied. His last big product was the Tub-a -Telly, designed to run in the shower and catch the signals that came through the water lines. Sadly, the fad died when the free channels were swamped with advertising. 

Broadcaster: has to spend heavily to advertise his channel, since it is very easy to send out a signal these days. The competition covers the spectrum from the traditional media conglomerates to the independents and individuals; with the improvements in digital technology, it is now possible for a relatively small operator to transmit nearly any program ever made, at any time of day or night; the best advantage is that you now have a very good idea of who watches your channel, and can target ads very specifically. Those who choose to buy subscription TV generally do not like to see many ads, but it is possible to include subtle ones. Advertisers pay top dollar; with advertisers desperate for eyeballs, they now have less room to complain about programming choices. Broadcasters have room to compete against the freewheeling content of the independents.

The broadcast executive has to get an early start this morning, because the auction of 2007's top rated show will be held on the net at 6 AM in Hawaii, where he lives. So much of his job can be done digitally now; there was just no reason to stay in NY or LA. He can set up all the required programming from home, just call up the digital files onto his transmitter. The advances in encryption have eliminated the piracy problems from the Chinese broadcasters - lucky for him, since it is so hard to determine the location of a broadcast source today. Even with the political freedoms that swept China when the information barriers become completely useless, it is still hard to get access to the court system there, and China is still inward-looking. The executive hopes that his deal with the Chinese government to provide premium subscription service to the big cities will finally close - just think, another 2 billion eyeballs.”

Scenario Four: Magic Kingdom.   Key Elements:  The end of TV as we know it. No longer in the tube, TV has disappeared in the sea of appliances; everything revolves around the individual/consumer who gets what he wants on whatever devices he wants; all transactions are electronic and bot controlled (VISA is the biggest financial institution on the planet) : everything is digital including houses, clothing, cars, road signs…You can connect everything with everything;  content is king - it is also everywhere… they are over a million channels from which to chose from if you include the Web and cable; nation-states exist more and more formally. Networks of all kind strive. And , for those who dream the future, they see the birth of Corporate-Nations, each with their own compound, population, architecture, benefits, style and so forth; hackers have migrated into the "Walled City". No one knows where they are; people still eat pizza.

Scenario:  “At 7:30 p.m. Bill leaves his office and heads home. Although his car is wired to the web and could find the best way to get home according to the current traffic situation, Bill has turned the device off. As a matter of fact, he has also turned the sensory-videos of his auto-run off. Tonight, he just wants to drive home and hear classical music. He tells his car what he wants to listen to (a Bach Fugue) and seconds afterwards it downloads a tune onto the hard drive of his top-of-the-line surround sound system.    Bill works for Pegasus, an independent interactive content production house based in San Martha California. He is 32 and does not fear death.   Soon, he enters his (short) driveway. He had wanted to be alone but has forgotten to turn his garage off, so as he comes in front of its doors he sees a summary of what is on for him tonight (pasta al Pesto, Charles Schwab's latest advice on his portfolio, and about 10 shows that his bot - Rufus - has selected for him). His wife opens the front door and smiles. For a second, he dreams that his eye implant allows him to zoom in on her mouth, which he adores. His kids are there too, although Myriam is in her room downloading some new backgrounds for her up-coming web meeting. Kids just love to change backgrounds and excel at building weird and uncanny places. Bill is proud of Myriam. She is lovely and very good with imaging, which leads him to believe that she will one day work with him.

As he walks into his living room, he sees the whole wall lit up with what seems to be a video game. It is in Japanese but he can always switch the programme back to English. All his house appliances have an IP address and can keep him informed about almost anything (temperature, government foreign policy, the latest mud fest). He is proud of his home server : the latest model of Terra Nova Linux microsystems. It simply never runs out of gas nor does it ever fail him. In fact, software firms's revenues (like his) depend on the number of simultaneous downloads from regional WAN. Jinny has won over Windows and so has open source code. Fiber optics run like river capillaries everywhere.

The Great Digital Amazon River.  Bill sits down. His phone rings. He looks into its small LCD and sees the world.  …. To be continued… perhaps…  Headlines:  RealNetworks buys Philips for 30 billion dollars. Software companies dominate the market and use their immense market cap to buy out manufacturers (2002); "The Mufta", a Pegasus Interactive Production, becomes first production to top 1 billion dollars in revenues. Broadband allows broadcast quality audio and video. Downlaoded on 5 continents on more than 20 000 mirror sites, "The Mufta" became the world best seller involving more than 20 million viewers/players. (2005).    Winners:  software development companies;  cable, fibre optics, satellite operators;  independent content producers; the consumer.  Losers:  traditional media conglomerate;  traditional ad agencies.

Consumer 2010   The king of the zoo. The consumer is tracked, monitored, scanned, beamed, and, everybody-- everybody --competes for his attention. The consumer is submerged with brands, products, movies, sounds, widgets, snippets, gadgets, and more consumables. Like Aladdin, he merely has to wish to see it in front of him.   But he has co-evolved with the system and benefits from the help of all kinds of bots, robots, e-bots, and nanobots (they clean beaches and arteries with the same remarkable resilience). Like an emperor whose empire extends into infinity, he relies on informers and chance to make his plays. Time reverts to a kind of medieval immanence where all happens synchronously, the spirit dwelling in interstices, artificial, unknowing and unknowable.     Media is reduced to bits and pixels and constantly reshapes itself around an ever- growing number of devices at his whim. Even the act of paying is removed from his consciousness as his bots makes thousands of micro-payments per day on his behalf.     In time, he forgets the sea of data, products, advertising, information, virtual worlds and avatars that surround him and out of the strange deafness that ensues, he hears the laughter of his child, or the rolling bellow of the sea. Connected to neural networks, his psyche learns to switch on and off faster and faster, getting relief from ever-diminishing time spans. And, in the middle of all the glare, to the great and utter dismay of senior management across the world, he starts to tune out.

TV manufacturer 2010    They are no longer. First bought out by large electrical companies, they have evolved into industrial design firms competing for every single piece of appliance possible. The screen market now incorporates architecture, textile, and all home appliances. Large zeibatzus are forming that include ex-broadcast companies, telco and software (ex: the Sony-Bandai-NTT conglomerate appropriately renamed ZIRCON (for its artificial scintillation). 

Broadcaster 2010 and beyond…  They are on the brink of extinction. After years of compulsive and desperate buy-outs, they cannot compete with the all-out content providers. Until 2005, they tried all kinds of strategies : advertising, pay per view, pay by subscription, free viewing but, by 2009, most of them have merged with either software or wire companies. In 2006, AOL/Turner sells half of all their media to Nortel. In 2050, what is left of ABC-Disney, Sony-CBS and NBC-Microsoft are but small shops in gigantic conclaves of the likes of Odu-Michiko-Palmer (weapons-genetic engineering-fiber optics) or Mazda-Betincourt (leisure industry). In fact, Mazda-Betincourt has spawned ABC museums both virtual and real to attract a dwindling population of nostalgics. Disney has sold to Huntington-Larsen-Lu, a Chinese-Norwegian conglomerate specialising in aerospace, hoping to sell its Mouse to aliens.”

 

The Rosetta Stone.  Author: Chrisian Turner, Ph.D., currently attending Stanford Law School.  The following individuals also contributed to these scenarios: Barbara J. Culliton (Executive Editor of the Genome News Network, Celera Genomics); Cynthia Afshari, Ph.D., (Director of the Microarray Center at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences); Finley Austin (Asst. Director of Public Policy, Roche) and Anne Bowdidge (Director of Investor Relations, Affymetrix).

DNA. The chemical that carries the information necessary to produce all life on Earth.  Many scientists believe that breakthought in understanding the genome have not begun to converge; understanding the genetic code is only one step in the beginning of a vast and incredible horizen of the genomics era.  Dr. Turner offers up two possible future scenarios and explores some of the issues that may naturally arise from environmental policy.  Major trends in genomic technologies forseen over the next 20 years to the year 2020, include: 1) the frontiers of environmental projects will occur inside the human body; 2) a vast increase in options for diagnosis, early intervention, and prevention; 3) increase in the involvement of doctors, insurance companies,  diagnostic equipment manufacturers, drug companies, and others in the realm of environmental protection; 4) redefinition of the roles of regulatory agencies at both domestic and international levels; possibly shift grater responsibility for environmental health toward individuals; and 5) raise a host of new issues involving access, equity, and discrimination.   Dr. Turner provides two scenarios.

The first scenario, Plaintiffs in the Post-Genome Era looks at social change and tort jurisprudence. In this world, a plaintiff’s claim is seldom subject to scientific investigation – science is clearly is an affirmed legitimacy to proponderance of the evidence. Key uncertainties: Will the increasing availability of individualized information regarding risk, exposure to toxic chemicals, and disease proceses cause a dramatic intensification of toxic tory litigation? To what degree might an expanding clas of successful plaintiff’s displace larger, social judgements about risk?  In the second scenario, Grocery Store Genetics   the ubiquity of genetic technologies is explored in the near-term future.  It is a world that explores the plausibility of individualized “gene cards” wherein people have complete control over their genetic information. Thus, by carry these cards, people can be alerted to environmental exposure.  Key uncertainties: Is individual empowerment really utopia? Is it possible genetic discrimination or genetic castes could appear even in a world of absolute genetic privacy? Will putting the ability to mitigate risks in the hands of the consumers reduce incentives to eliminate the sources of those risks when they also prove deleterious to wildlife and overall environmental quality?   This paper also explores the developing countries and future exposure to growing toxicity.  In conclusion, Dr. Turner discusses the simultaneous potential for genetic technologies to enhance and to threaten common humanity.  Key question: What social structures exist or are needed to deal with these challenges in the future? 

Scenario One: Plaintiffs in the Post-Genome Era – Proof by Genetic Assay in 2007.   “The plaintiff sat nervously as the jury filed backed into the courtroom. This jury was about to announce an award that would have been inconceivable only five years earlier. There were over 8,000 others who had been exposed to the same contaminant as they had. Like the plaintiff, four of these others were afflicted with bladder cancer. Unlike the plaintiff they lacked a key piece of evidence connecting their cancer with the actions of the defendant. They lacked the genetic variant that rendered this successful plaintiff, Mike Harlan, highly susceptible to cancer following exposure to the arsenic that had appeared in the local drinking water.    This case began two years ago, in 2005, when Mike was diagnosed with bladder cancer. Like many people who are suddenly faced with a life-threatening illness, Mike wondered why this was happening to him. So he asked his doctor. Thanks to genetic technology, an answer could be found.     From a urine sample, cells from the lining of Mike's bladder were isolated. From these cells, the mRNA, the portions of Mike's genetic code which were then actively making proteins in the bladder, was isolated. Using new diagnostic equipment, the doctor was able to determine cheaply and quickly which genes were active in Mike's bladder cells and which variants of those genes Mike possessed.  A computer analyzed the data and reported that the pattern of active genes was consistent with arsenic exposure. Another urine sample was used to test for arsenic directly, and it also indicated that Mike had been and was currently being exposed to arsenic at moderate but elevated levels.   It did not take long to track down the likely source of the contamination. A nearby manufacturer of wood preservatives had shut down about five years earlier after a history of environmental violations and financial mismanagement. A site investigation revealed rusty storage tanks, some leaks, and high levels of arsenic in groundwater adjacent to the site.     Mike's genetic testing had revealed a variant of a certain gene that rendered him many times more likely than the general population to develop bladder cancer following arsenic exposure at the exposure levels. Given the background incidence of bladder cancer, this meant that there was an 80 percent chance that Mike's bladder cancer was due to arsenic exposure. In the minds of the jurors, this figure, even allowing for scientific uncertainty and other potential sources of arsenic exposure, was enough to convince them that it was more likely than not that Mike's cancer was caused by the company's arsenic releases.    After learning of Mike's situation, the rest of the small community near the abandoned plant also became concerned. Nearly all took their own genetic tests.   Luckily, the level of arsenic in the water supply was simply too low to create any significant risk of bladder cancer in the average person. Indeed the arsenic levels were not much above a level that had been considered safe thirty years ago. Even those in the community who had the susceptibility gene but did not have bladder cancer faced only a small risk of developing bladder cancer. To win damages for the increased risk of developing cancer that the company had caused, they would need to show that they would probably develop bladder cancer, a standard that they were, happily for all involved, unable to meet.

The four people in the community besides Mike who already had bladder cancer were negative for the susceptibility gene. Statistically there was only a slight chance that their cancers were caused by the contamination -- not enough to win a lawsuit.”  (Just after the scenario, Dr. Turner explores the promises and perils of genetic proof.)

Scenario Two: Grocery Store Genetics: Gene Cards, Discrimination, and Environmental Values – Post-Genome Shopper.   “The market is filled with people buying groceries for the coming week. After reaching for a frozen dinner, a man stops to retrieve the card buzzing in his pocket. The display on this card reports that the dinner he has chosen contains a preservative which poses a small but not insignificant risk for his genotype.    A combination of several genes results in his being at ten thousand times the risk of the general population for developing cancer from this preservative if it appears regularly in his diet. (The general population is at a one in ten million lifetime risk meaning a one in a thousand lifetime risk for our intrepid consumer.) The display lists alternatives that conform to his tastes and sends a request to the market's computers to carry some of the alternatives not in stock. The display next lists the latest information on therapeutic solutions to the sensitivity and other common items that present significant risk because of the sensitivity. Of course the card also serves as a personal organizer, a credit card, and the key to his house.  Perhaps this is the year 2020, although similar technologies may begin to arrive sooner or later. Cards or some other genetic information device will likely emerge first as a way to prevent adverse effects of medication. Many pharmaceuticals have adverse effects on some users. Sometimes these effects can be severe and those affected cannot be identified in advance. In such cases, even if a drug is enormously beneficial for the great majority of users it may not be brought to market. Genetic information may identify those who cannot take a particular drug. Technology like the card could open the door to bringing much more effective drugs to market with fewer worries about adverse drug reactions -- users would be alerted to any conflicts through their card or pharmacist. Suppose that in the society in which our grocery shopper lives, genetic privacy is given the utmost protection. No one may have access to the information on the card without the express consent of the cardholder. Genetic information may only be used for the purposes for which it was disclosed and may not be transferred.     This may seem an ideal scenario. Citizens are empowered by having the information they need when they need it to manage their own risk. No one else can obtain their genetic information to use against them. Some may argue that there will be no need for government to involve itself in regulating risk at all -- other than to see that it is accurately reported to individuals. It is not at all clear, however, that this would actually lead to a future that any of us would choose.  (Dr. Turner continues with an analysis of the consequences of reduced uncertainty.)

 

Scenarios of the Evolution of the Cosmos.  
Scenarios from the book, “The Whispering Pond – A Personal Guide to the Emerging Vision of Science.”  Author:  Ervin Laszlo, published in 1996 by Element Books Limited, Brisbane, Australia.

This recently published book by the author who wrote, "Vision 2020" (1994), is an amazingly easy read for the layperson wanting to understand in Cosmos, the new physics, scientific discoveries of manifestation of mind and quantum mechanics, but is too impatient to sit through more complex terminology.  In "Whispering Pond", the author produces a new view of the cosmos: an interconnected, all-embracing cosmos of which we are all part.  “By integrating the established vision of scientists with the paradoxes for which they cannot offer any explanation, his vision is a combination of agreed scientific wisdom and the exciting world of "new science".  In Chapter 1, "The Evolution of the Cosmos", the author describes several scenarios of the very distant future of the cosmos. 

He calls them, The Cosmic Scenarios:  "...As far as we know, we are aware of how the universe is today. But how will it be tomorrow... and in the more distant future?  To this question various answers are possible> The universe may be open (infinitely expanding in cosmic space); it may be closed (reversing back on itself in a final Big Crunch); or it could be in a steady state, balanced on the razor's edge between expansion and contraction. It is flat, it will reach a steady state where the outward-pulling internal force of the initial explosion is precisely balanced by the inward-pulling force of gravitation, and it will remain in space (it has a spatial boundary beyond which it will not expand), is infinite in time.  However, on the scenario that the universe is open, the force of expansion carries galactic matter further and further apart in space: the open universe is infinite in space as well as time. But, if the force of gravitation exceeds the force of expansion (perhaps around 1,000 billion years after the Big Bang), and thereafter begin to contract at ever higher velocities. It will collapse back onto itself in the Big Crunch scenario at a time horizon estimated at around 2,000 billion years.  In consequence, the closed universe is finite both in space and in time.  We do not know at this time whether the universe is open, closed, or flat. This depends on the exact amount of matter in cosmic space.  If matter exceeds the critical threshold of 5 x 10 - 27 kg/cm3, we are living in a closed universe. IF it is just at that threshold, the universe is flat if it is below it, the cosmos is open. ... But as far as the ultimate fate of matter and life is concerned, the alternatives make little difference. In any case, the constructive phase in the evolution of the universe cannot continue indefinitely; cosmic evolution must sooner or later reverse into devolution. The reversal will come at different times in different places, but when it comes, it will be irreversible. Ultimately, all matter in the cosmos will degrade and disappear. . The macrostructures of the universe -- stars, stellar systems, galaxies, and galactic clusters -- will decay as well. .  The author then describes in detail, the cosmic downhill scenario.

 

Scenarios of the Future of Life on Mars – Mars a Search for Life.   
A scenario from the book, “The Search for Life on Mars” Author: Malcolm Walter, published in 1999 by Allen & Unwin, Australia.

In this book, the author focuses on the similarities between Mars and early Earth.  He discusses scientific evidence of microbial life, similar to boiling hot springs in Earch.  In this annotation, the author outlines a blueprint that is a summation of many proposals by leading scientists, authors, and the space agency, NASA, then summarizes a detailed scenario of the plausibility of manned-missions to Mars.

Proposals from NASA - a summary includes: Mission  - Launch Date – Objectives

Mission: Mars Climate Orbiter Date: 1999.   Objectives: Analysis of water, volatiles and climate Mission: Geochamical Mapper Date 2001.  Objective Analysis of elemental composition and global mineralogy Mission: Mars Express (ESA/ASI) Date: 2003.    Objective: Travel to Mars Mission:  Sample Return (NASA) Dte: 2003   Objective: Return from Mars Mission: Sample Return Orbiter (CNES) Date: 2005.  Retrieval and return to Earth of '03 and '05 samples. Mission: Sample Return Orbiter (CNES) Date: 2009.   Retrieval and return to Earth of '07 and '09 samples Mission: Sample Return Orbiter 9CNES) Date: 2013.  Retrieval and return to Earth of '11 and '13 samples.

 

Beyond 2005.   Inevitably someday there will be crewed (manned) missions to Mars. It is a challenge that is irresistible. It is frequently stated that such missions will not happen until well into the next century because we should first work through systematic program of observation and mapping from orbiters, unmanned rovers and other instruments. There are said to be recalcitrant technical problems to overcome, particularly health problems caused by zero gravity and cosmic radiation while in transit.  But there is a growing band of articulate and informed specialists and enthusiasts advocating an early move to this phase of exploration.  IT is said that the American people would not have supported prolonged robotic exploration of the Moon: the excitement generated by human missions was needed to keep the money flowing. Presumably the same will be true for Mars. ... Speculation by science fiction writers has played a significant role in keeping fresh and alive the possibility of people going to Mars... In an extraordinary book, "The Case for Mars",  Robert Zurbrin and Richard Wagner set out a rationale for colonizing Mars.  They attempt to demonstrate that it is technically feasible and economically achievable right now.  The scenarios they envision are the lack of necessity of establishing bases on Mars. They envision mission trajectories involving he "conjunction option" – launch when the planets are on the opposite sides of the Sun - with six months travel each way and a stay of 550 days on the surface of Mars. This length of spaceflight has already been achieved by Russian cosmonauts aboard space station Mir, with apparently few ill effects.  Former astronaut Michael Collins in his book “Mission to Mars” sees Mars as the next challenge for human exploration.  This is a challenge that we will inevitable accept, as we have accepted all other geographic challenges. "

 

EBook scenarios Online.  Author: Mick O’Leary. Wilton   Jan/Feb 2001. Vol. 25, Issue 1.  

Many people are uncomfortable contemplating ebooks, among them many librarians, whose professions will be greatly altered, by ebooks. Nevertheless, the time for ebooks is coming quickly. The progress of ebooks will vary greatly with the type of print books they replace. Ebooks will be adopted in stages, which will depend on 2 primary factors: the degree to which the book is a tool and the degree to which the audience is ready to adopt ebooks. A scenario for the evolution is presented. 

Textbooks :   “My daughter started college this past fall, accompanied by several hundred dollars' worth of heavy print textbooks. I told her that by the time she graduates, ebooks and readers will have largely replaced these. There is no area where the logic of ebooks makes more sense, or where there is a better match-up between the book as a tool and a technologically hip customer group. Instead of heavy, stretched-out, dorky-looking book bags, students will carry light, sleek ebook readers that contain a semester's worth of textbooks. Besides reading, students can search and annotate the text (highlighter manufacturers, beware!). Between semesters, the old texts are deleted and new ones loaded, presumably at a fraction of the cost of the print text (more on this later). Look for textbooks to be the vanguard of the ebook revolution.”  

Technical Manuals and Professional Books    “Technical manuals have a lot in common with textbooks: they are tools; they are large and heavy; they become obsolete quickly; and there is relatively little emotional investment in them. Thus, a similar pattern will occur with technical manuals, guides, and handbooks in every subject. (Tomorrow's readers will have improved viewing capabilities for graphics and illustrations.) The users of these types of books will also be receptive to the changeover. So, the next time you buy a manual for the latest version of Windows, it may be a digital file in an ebook, instead of a 700-page paperback.”

Reference Books :  “Reference books already have a long history of electronic usage. In fact, one of the earliest applications of computers was for automated literature searching, replacing cumbersome print indexes. Since then, thousands of reference books, from general encyclopedias and dictionaries to specialized sources, have been digitized and are commonly used online or as a CD-ROM. The adoption of reference ebooks will vary with type and size. It will be a long time, if ever, that you'll use the complete MEDLINE or Chemical Abstracts as an ebook. On the other hand, smaller and more frequently used reference sources, such as encyclopedias, dictionaries, and almanacs, will commonly reside in your ebook. (Or, if you have a wireless, Internet-connected device like a PDA or a cell phone, you may simply use the reference book from the Web, rather than downloading it to your reader-isn't technology amazing!)  

General Fiction and Non-Fiction  “ These present a different scenario, since they are generally smaller, cheaper, and much more long-lived than texts, manuals, or professional books. They are purchased by a much broader demographic profile, which will generally be more resistant to ebooks. There will be a much wider continuum of print/ebook patterns. Popular fiction, self-help books, and light non-fiction may flourish in both formats indefinitely. Coffee table books have little or no appeal as ebooks.”  

EBooks in Libraries  “ If the authors, publishers, and readers are moving toward ebooks, what about the intermediaries: booksellers and libraries? Booksellers will face an immediate commercial challenge as readers start buying ebooks directly from the Web. Libraries have a different, and in several ways, larger challenge. Even a small college library or medium-size public library has many more books than the largest Borders or Barnes and Noble bricks-and-mortar bookstore. Libraries also have additional responsibilities for selection, cataloging, reference support, and collection maintenance.  Ebooks change the basic definition of a library collection, creating a very different perspective on the print book collection. The classic library collection is a set of books acquired for their presumed interest to the library's clientele. However, some of the key circulation statistics that come out of this model can be disturbing: percentage of books in circulation at any one time; average number of times a book is circulated per year; number of books that are circulated only a few times or not at all; and cost per book circulation. In an age that values "just in time" inventories rather than "just in case" ones, these statistics can expect to receive close scrutiny, especially by e-generation bosses, managers, and board.

 

Broad Band: Pipe Dream or Reality?  Author: Peter Schwartz Red Herring, May 2000. 

There are many challenges to broadband, particularly extending DSL capabilities to the home. The day of simple installation of DSL - plug-and-play - appears to continue to be in the distant in the future.  In the present, trying to hookup broadband into the home can be extremely frustrating.  The author describes three medium term scenarios on the future of broadband: 

Scenario 1) Least Likelihood:   “The least likely is the rapid rollout scenario, which depends on the fast development of a competent installation-and-support industry. In such a future, broadband access could reach 40 million subscribers by 2005. Probably the best candidate to lead the charge would be one of the large home-security companies. ADP, for example, already has a foothold in many homes and a fairly large base of reasonably sophisticated installation workers. But unless they or someone like them moves soon, this scenario won't happen.” 

Scenario 2: Slow Rollout:   “The second scenario is the slow rollout. This relies on companies like the local phone companies, cable companies, and independent contractors gradually developing the necessary skills and hiring the employees to meet demand. In this case, we wouldn't reach 40 million users until late in this decade.” 

 Scenario 3: Like the Early Days:  “The final scenario is a version of the pushback scenario I defined in the first installment of this column. The deployment of broadband and the accompanying home networks might begin to resemble a combination of the early days of the cable and aluminum-siding industries. Questionable, even illegal, practices combined with shoddy workmanship in a complex and fragile technology lead to rejection in the marketplace. The demand for broadband is here now, and the technologies are about ready, but if the support services don't measure up, people may turn to another technology or reject broadband altogether. The promise of true digital convergence could be delayed for another decade.  The bottom line is that there is a huge emerging opportunity to help America build out not only the broadband networks connecting us to the world, but also the networks that link the technologies within our homes. I suspect that companies will eventually get rich meeting that demand. Let's hope that they are both honest and competent, or the emerging potential of broadband may recede over the horizon and a great opportunity will be lost.”

 

Boom Town: `Grumpy' Won't Say What's Next for Yahoo! But Scenarios Abound. Author: Kara Swisher Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2001. 

What is the future of Yahoo?  It may seem an unusual question to ask in the context of the Millennium Project, but. Yahoo is significant because it represents an extraordinary success story in the new economy. All over Silicon Valley, people ask, Will Yahoo buy a big media company like Walt Disney Co.? Or, perhaps a piece of a telecommunications or cable player? What about a tasty bite of a satellite concern, such as one owned by News Corp.? That rumor swept the online world recently, although any such deal is more likely to be a simple distribution arrangement, since Yahoo is one of the Internet's pickiest and cheapest shoppers.  The following four scenarios illustrate some possibilities:

 Scenario 1) Featurettes:    “The most obvious acquisitions for Yahoo would be among the scads of tiny dot-com companies that seem to be created daily with the sole purpose of being bought. Some possible candidates, for example, include party-invitation sites, such as Mambo.com, or specialized buying sites, such as DealTime.com, which allows comparison shopping. Specializing on a single feature or tool, these kinds of "concept" businesses will have a harder time standing alone. In fact, many of their creators hope for a big payoff by becoming a nice end table in the Yahoo mansion. Yahoo has already made many such investments. Examples range from its $10 million purchase of Log-Me-On, a browser-tool maker, to its $7 million investment in E-Loan Inc. And Yahoo will probably keep grabbing others to fill in gaps in its service. But it's also likely that the company will wait until some of these "futurists" are running out of venture funding and can be bought more cheaply.

 Scenario 2) Yabay:   “Some think Yahoo is most likely to link with another online power – Excite At Home, for example -- to gain more reach and heft. But don't bet on it. While Yahoo lost its bid for Excite to At Home last year, today it doesn't badly need to add to its now-dominant audience. The same goes for Lycos Inc. and other lower-tier portals that Yahoo considered buying a year ago. Yahoo might be more interested in solidifying its fast-growing role as an "enabler" of commerce or services by, say, scooping up a big niche player like eBay Inc. While eBay's market capitalization is about 25% of Yahoo's, making such a deal pricey, the auction house's giant audience of daily traders offers a spate of cross-marketing possibilities. A potential stumbling block: eBay has a multiyear marketing and distribution deal with AOL. Another possible choice: InfoSpace.com Inc. ($24.7 billion valuation), which provides a range of content and services such as phone directories, horoscopes and stock quotes to hundreds of Web sites and now to wireless devices that could help take Yahoo everywhere.”

 Scenario 3) Yahoo Everywhere: Yahoo also could strike a series of deals to become the interactive service of record for a range of companies that need it. For example, why not link it more strongly with Finnish cellular telephone giant Nokia Corp. to form a Nokia.com super-site that could serve information and services to mobile customers worldwide? Or make a deal with Ford Motor Co. or others to allow Yahoo to be the "dashboard" of interactive screens soon likely to be springing up in cars. The possibilities are endless: Yahoo on refrigerator-door screens; Yahoo on shopping kiosks; Yahoo at Starbucks. What's the Frequency, Yahoo?   Last year, a top Yahoo executive jokingly asked: "Do you think I could be Dan Rather's boss?" It wasn't an idle query, as it turned out, because both Yahoo and AOL held preliminary talks with CBS Corp. before Viaco.  Inc. snapped it up late last year. People close to the situation report that CBS's Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin was burning up the phone lines after the AOL-Time Warner deal looking for more online clout. (CBS declined to comment.) While a deal that would merge Yahoo and Viacom-CBS is unlikely, more probable would be cross-marketing and distribution arrangements of content and services between them. Yahoo could do this with many traditional media companies, giving them access to Yahoo's vast online platform. Yahoo's recent plans -- as yet unannounced -- to build a small broadcast studio near its headquarters, provide a clue to the company's plans. Noting a marketing deal with Kmart Corp, one Yahoo executive spun this scenario: Homestyle empress Martha Stewart (also allied with Kmart) broadcasting tips on Yahoo's high-speed service, with hyperlinks to commerce and other information.

  Scenario 4) Bigger Is Better   “Or, Yahoo could simply get bought. While its long-time executives would probably make such a move only if they felt they had taken the company as far as they could, there are some who think that it's not such a bad idea in the end. And such a notion could become more pressing if the market ever whacks Yahoo's huge stock valuation.
Microsoft Corp. is the most likely contender. Yahoo would give the software giant a weapon to combat its most potent foe, AOL. Among other possible suitors would be Japan's Sony Corp. (Yahoo as the front screen and service provider on new Internet appliances, with Sony content woven throughout the Yahoo service) and AT&T Corp. (Yahoo as the first screen on its cable systems and as the connection point for consumers wanting telephone service over the Web.)”

 

Virtual Reality Interface Way of the Future.
Author: Wells Amanda.  The Dominion, 04/17/2000.

In 2025, instead of sending e-mails, mankind will be sending "experiences". Victoria University doctoral student Minako O'Hagan created three such scenarios of future technology to paint potential futures of language translation. Her prediction is based on the theory of Hyper Reality, which says the Internet will move away from a text-based form to one based on experience. 

Virtual Polyglot Space: One scenario envisages the Internet in 2025 and the development of a technological environment called Virtual Polyglot Space. In this world, anyone can step virtually into this space and communicate in any language, without having to consciously consider language issues.  “As well as translating the spoken word, this VPS would translate non-verbal cues.”  Though this scenario may seem far-fetched, the author asserts that 20 years ago, no one could have envisaged the shape of the Internet today. Ms O'Hagan says distributed interpretation involves a totally different mindset. "You shift the meeting into cyberspace."  Because video and voice technologies have not reached the required standard, the translating through this medium is still experimental. “But language translation services have always picked up new technology,” according to O’Hagan.

 

LIVING IN SPACE / Child of the Stars / A very young astronaut has more frontiers to Explore.
Author: Sylvia Rubin,  The San Francisco Chronicle, 11/16/99. 

A scenario of living in space in the year 2020. Living in Space:  “The bidding was fierce. Brad Garcia, 35, who made his fortune in biotechnology, hung in there until he outbid every other multibillionaire on Earth for the decommissioned International Space Station. The deal closed May 31, 2020. He renamed it the G-One. He had big plans. Garcia and his wife, Ivy, a former astronaut, have a 7-year-old daughter, Molly. She became the focus of an international uproar when Garcia announced plans to expose her to lengthy periods of weightlessness while she was still in diapers. Using the latest in genetically modified food and microgravity survival techniques, Molly is being groomed to be the solar system's first explorer of deep space.
"There is nowhere my little girl can't go," Garcia says.  NASA doctors fear Molly may suffer hidden cellular changes, possibly even brain damage. But Garcia's own team of astrobiologists have yet to confirm the evidence.  Starting with short trips into low Earth orbit, Garcia and his wife have taken Molly on annual space holidays, accompanied by a team of specialists. Molly has so far shown no signs of distress and even enjoys the trips.

Now, he plans to have Molly start fourth grade on G-One next year in an elaborately equipped "Countdown Campus" wing of the space station, complete with rotating crews of tutors, doctors and counselors recruited from top universities around the world.  Molly, who has been nourished with smart drugs and life-extending antioxidants, wants to be just like her mom -- a stellar astronaut. Garcia has endowed a research institute at the University of California at San Francisco to study her physiology and developmental progress. She's precocious; her IQ is off the scale. Garcia is offering million-dollar stipends to families willing to allow their children to visit Molly for weeklong space play dates on G-One.

The Garcias have had regular arguments about whether to continue the experiment. But as conditions have worsened on Earth, the arguments have become less frequent.  Life on Earth has not inspired confidence: The seas have risen and flooded most coastal cities, Africa has yet to recover from the AIDS epidemic. Ancient signs of microbial life have been detected on Mars and at least two Jovian moons, suggesting that it may be ubiquitous in the galaxy. Space exploration has become popular worldwide. Results from the Europa Orbiter, launched in 2003, confirmed that the Jovian moon has a vast liquid ocean. Subsequent missions pinpointed several landing sites on the moon's thick outer crust. A 2018 submarine exploration found evidence of microbial life at the bottom of the sea -- strong evidence to suggest human colonies might be possible.

In 2020, after Mollygate finally blew over, the little girl became a symbol of hope for extending humankind's reach.  Great Beyond Enterprises, Garcia's space subsidiary, is completing a two-person craft to carry Molly and a pilot to Europa. Heartsick about being separated from her daughter, Ivy wants to be onboard. Over breakfast of shuttle-grown wheat grass and reconstituted banana smoothies in the G-One's master suite, the couple agreed to send Molly on the unprecedented mission -- accompanied by her 49- year-old mother.
The 10-year mission will include enough protein and oxygen generators to allow the two crewmembers to survive for 20 years. But the plan is to have mother and daughter back in time for Molly's 18th birthday. On the launch date, Garcia throws the world's most expensive goodbye party, setting up tents with free food and drink in every city, town and village on Earth.”

 

Using Scenarios in Planning a Digital Information Service.
Author: Marthie G. de Kock, South African Journal of Library & Information Science, Jun98, Vol 66 Issue 2, p47, 10p, 1 chart, 1 diagram.

In the development of a virtual or digital information service, planning is always essential. This article details the methodology of scenarios, which are often relied upon by forecasters.  A transformation or “paradigm shift” is currently taking place in information services. This is caused by the abundance of electronic information available via the Internet and by means of various electronic information technologies. Efforts are being made to plan an environment or electronic information technology infrastructure in which to deploy all the electronic information. Managers are challenged to determine their own roles while envisioning either an electronic text centre, a digital information service or a virtual information service depending on the choice of a term.

What are scenarios? “Scenarios are hypothetical, because the future is unpredictable. In creating scenarios, the planner has to make certain key assumptions about the future. Scenarios outline the boundaries of possible change and cannot be seen as complete pictures of the future.  Scenarios are multidimensional and holistic, because comprehensive and broad images of the future are drawn. Change is never simplistic; therefore scenarios are complex, interwoven and interdisciplinary sketches of the future…  Scenarios first emerged following World War II as a method applied for military planning. The United States Air Force tried to imagine what their opponents might do, and then proactively prepared alternative strategies. In the 1960s, Herman Kahn, who had been part of the Air Force effort, refined scenarios as a tool for business prognostication. Scenarios reached a new dimension in the 1970s, with the work of Pierre Wack and other planners at Royal Dutch/Shell, the international oil enterprise. By creating scenarios during those years they anticipated the oil price crisis, when apparently nobody else had.  Scenarios provide a tool for forecasting long-range, complex and highly uncertain business environments. However, scenarios should be re-evaluated and revised on a regular basis including the external forces that influence the success or failure of decisions made…  Scenarios are successful if they help managers to acquire more insight into the risks, vitality and flexibility of various decisions and supply management with a strong position from which to operate.”

 

Transportation Scenarios – Two Transport Visions.
Author: James J. MacKenzie, Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science, Sept.’97, Vol. 553, p192, 7p.

Explores two different possible future scenarios for ground transportation in the United States.
This article explores two quite different possible futures for U.S. ground transportation. The first represents a plausible extension of current trends: heavy reliance on oil to fuel gasoline - and diesel-powered cars and trucks, continued expansion of the road network to keep pace with the growth in vehicle use, little effort to integrate urban land-use planning and transportation, and no significant shift to innovative forms of public transportation. The second scenario seeks to define a sustainable transportation system that can run on renewable energy sources and provide options for travel where today there are few.

Scenario: Business as Usual:  “Current trends in vehicle fuel use and associated problems are characterized by unbridled growth. Largely as a result of the growth in the motor vehicle fleet, total motor vehicle fuel consumption -- as well as carbon dioxide emissions --has been steadily rising, and there is little indication that this kind of growth will change soon. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the Department of Energy projects a 20-30 percent increase in motor vehicle oil consumption by 2010.  Fuel trends are not the only problematic ones. Congestion is another. It is one of the most troublesome long-term problems faced by motor vehicle drivers and one of the most frequently cited issues in the debate on urban transportation planning. Nationally, current trends indicate that congestion will continue to grow. By the year 2005, delays have been projected to increase between 300 and 500 percent over 1985 levels. In Los Angeles, congestion has already reduced average freeway speeds to less than 31 miles per hour; by the year 2010, they are projected to fall to 11 miles per hour.  Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), "Congestion now affects more areas, more often, for longer periods, and with more impacts on highway users and the economy than at any time in the nation's history.” 

Alternative Scenario: A More Attractive Pathway:  “How might transportation look if a more reasoned approach were taken?  The easy part to this question centers on the sustainable fuels that we should come to rely on. If the nation were to move to very efficient, emissionless vehicles powered by renewable energy sources (such as electricity, or fuel cells with the hydrogen derived from photovoltaic cells, wind turbines, or other renewable technologies), the current atmospheric and security impacts associated with motor fuels would, over time, disappear, irrespective of the size of the vehicle fleet. Concentrations of smog and carbon monoxide, largely the result of vehicle emissions would be greatly reduced. Greenhouse gas emissions would be similarly cut. The sides over our cities would begin to clear, and the threat of global warming would recede.  This alternative future would also provide more options to the current exclusive reliance on cars and trucks. Integrated land-use and transportation planning would give greater emphasis to non-motorized possibilities such as walking and bicycling paths as well as innovative forms of public transit such as personal rapid transit (PRT).  The scenario goes on to describe PRT systems.  PRT systems in the 21st century consist of small, dedicated, computer-operated electric vehicles capable of carrying three or four seated passengers. The vehicles ride on their own electrified guideways, either elevated or below ground, allowing the vehicles to travel safely at high speeds independently of existing motor vehicle traffic.  In a properly designed system, there should be a PRT station within a 10-minute walk of almost any point in a metropolitan area.  PRT systems would gradually be retro fitted to many cities, especially in suburban areas, connecting residential developments, shopping centers, universities, hospitals, train stations, airports, and business centers. The elderly, the young, and the disabled would have ready access to PRT and the myriad services that it provides access to. Existing retail strip developments would be gradually replaced with commercial and residential buildings; the retail shops, in turn, would be co-located at transportation nodes. These changes would permit consumers to use public transit to meet many of their shopping needs. Bikeways and walking paths would be constructed in suburban areas, encouraging non-motorized shopping and travel.  In this alternative future, U.S. cities would be far less subservient to cars. Streets would be quieter. The air would be cleaner. There would be more options for travel and, at the same time, less need to travel because of mixed residential and retail development. Those persons preferring to live in single-family homes could readily do so and still have less of a need to drive because of opportunities to bike, walk, take personal public transit, or telecommute.” For more, see original article.

 

Headline: Medusa’s Child ABC Movie’s Doomsday Scenario is a Plausible Armageddon. Author: Walter A. Combs, Tribune Media Services, The Buffalo News, November 16, 1997.

Scenario of an embittered scientist, whose weapon project was canceled by the Defense Department, continues the work on his own. He creates a doomsday device triggered by a nuclear explosion, which emits a powerful electromagnetic pulse that “fries all the computer chips in North America.”  Modern technological society comes to a halt.  

Medusa’s Child: “The dying scientist, Rogers Henry, asks his ex-wife Vivian whom he terrorized while they were married, to take a prototype of his "Medusa" project to Washington as a final favor to him. She reluctantly agrees, and after an initial freight-scheduling snafu, gets the device aboard a novice freight-carrier's initial flight. Scott Nash the freight company's owner and pilot, eventually realizes what he's carrying, as do the FBI and the Defense Department, and a mad scramble to prevent the device from unleashing catastrophe begins.

Nash, his crew, and a lovely meteorologist aboard the flight are trying to get the equipment to Washington to observe a powerful hurricane as it devastates the East Coast, and Vivian end up risking their lives to prevent the catastrophe. A top general wants to inspect the device to deactivate it and discover how it works, and the president of the US and an FBI agent simply want to keep the thing from blowing up. For fans of these types of movies, there are plenty of heroes to root for, villains to hoot at and bureaucrats to despise on the way to a fairly predictable climax.

But beneath the surface of this run-of-the-mill entertainment lies a plausible disaster scenario. "Medusa's Child" author John J. Nance elaborates: "There's only one small, intuitive leap here. If you took an ordinary nuclear weapon, even a one-megaton one, and lofted it 300 miles over Kansas and exploded it, you would do the same exact amount of damage as the Medusa wave in my book. In other words, you would wipe out all the computer chips in North America that were unshielded. That's been known for a long time. That's been one of the horror visions the Defense Department faced back during the Cold War. What if the Soviets tried that? They would shut us down.”  

Nance says, “Up to about 20 years ago, we had our society pretty hardened, and we were nowhere near as dependent, or at least one order of magnitude less dependent, on computer technology than we are today. The thing that fascinated me was just taking a leap on this basis: What happens if we create a nuclear weapon that creates not only the standard electromagnetic pulse, but a super magnetic pulse that from ground level or near-ground level will do the same kind of job of blanketing the continent?”

 

Blessings from the Book of Life.
Author: David Stipp, Fortune,  3/6/00.

Decoding the human genome will yield a bounty of biotech miracles that will transform our lives in the next 40 years. Scenarios of biotechnology. 

By 2010:  “We'll start winning the war on cancer.  Say you experience back pain, night sweats, and loss of appetite, and then find an egg-like swelling under your arm. Today a doctor would analyze biopsied cells from your lump with an instrument using 400-year-old technology, the microscope, and make an educated guess: You have non-Hodgkins lymphoma. You'd get one-size-fits-all chemotherapy that might work. If it doesn't, your doc would tell you not to despair--other drugs might save you.  In 2010 your doctor will scan your biopsied cells with a DNA array, a computer-chip-like device that registers the activity patterns of thousands of genes in cells. It will quickly establish that your lymphoma is actually one of six genetically distinguishable types of T-cell cancer, each of which is known to respond best to somewhat different drugs. Another gene-testing device called a SNP ("snip") chip will flag medicines that won't work in your case because your particular liver enzymes tend to break them down too fast.   Since your first round of therapy will hit your tumor cells square on, your odds of achieving lasting remission will be very good. You'll have years and years to stop and smell the roses--your favorites will be the bio-engineered blue ones.”  The most exciting thing about this scenario is that it's already in the works. With DNA arrays made by Affymetrix of Santa Clara, Calif., researchers at the Whitehead Institute in Cambridge, Mass., recently showed that they could distinguish different forms of leukemia according to abnormal patterns of gene activity in cancerous blood cells. This tumor "genotyping" helped cast suspicion on one patient's diagnosis--a separate genetic analysis proved it was wrong, prompting a change in treatment. 
By 2020:  “Drug development will be vastly accelerated by techniques akin to testing new aircraft designs in wind tunnels, predicts Joshua Boger, CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, a Cambridge, Mass., biotech company. Researchers will begin clinical trials by giving safe, tiny doses of, say, half-a-dozen possible variations of a new medicine to volunteers. The drugs' effects on thousands of genes and proteins will be monitored and analyzed by computer to predict how higher "therapeutic" doses will affect people of various genotypes. That will enable researchers to select the optimal molecules and immediately begin large, pivotal clinical trials, skipping initial phases of testing that now often take years.  The result: Gene-based drugs geared to patients' genotypes will be available for most major killers. Some big diseases will be on the way out—rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases such as lupus will be essentially curable by drugs that selectively switch off parts of the immune system that attack patients' own tissues. Potent new therapies will be available to treat once mysterious diseases, such as schizophrenia and narcolepsy, at the level of root causes.  If your finances aren't devastated in the crash of 2011, you'll be able to afford treatments that let you look as if you've hardly aged during the past decade. If you're male, gene therapy shampoos will reverse your pattern baldness. If you tend toward obesity, drugs tailored to your genotype will let you benignly alter your energy metabolism and fearlessly chow down. Biofacials will rev up dermal genes that make antioxidants and DNA-repairing enzymes, slowing time's toll on your face.” For more on the scenario, see article.
By 2040:  “Individualized preventive medicine will be the gold standard. Gene therapy, as well as more traditional gene-based drugs, will be available for most diseases. It will be possible to hold most cancers in check for many years. Alzheimer's disease, which will be detectable before symptoms appear, will usually be preventable.  The average life span in the developed world will top 90. U.S. health costs will reach a third of GDP.  Key genes involved in aging will be identified, and clinical trials of anti-aging drugs will be under way. A consortium of life insurers will help fund the trials, counting on the medicines to boost their profits by delaying boomers' life-insurance payouts.  Cryopreserved embryos of endangered animals, many of, which will have become extinct since their embryos were put on ice, will be thawed and cloned. The animals will be placed in special animal refuges for the remembrance of things past.  Artificial life forms will be reproducing and evolving in the lab. They won't be mini-Frankenstein monsters. "They'll be autonomous, self-reproducing systems created to do useful things in specific environments," opines Stuart Kauffman, a theoretical biologist in Santa Fe. For instance, DNA-like nanomachines will be engineered to spread through patients' cells and churn out selected proteins in quantities geared to correct out-of-kilter metabolic states.”  For more on the scenario, see article.

 

In the Sky: Visions of the Information Future.
Author: Barbara Searcher Quint, Jan 2000, Vol. 8 Issue 1, p127, 4p.

Presents a compilation of predictions on information technology by leading information professionals. Significance of electronic commerce; forecast on the Baby Boom generation; radical scenarios of change in the third millennium. An essay appears as a chapter in I in the Sky: Visions of the Information Future, a compilation of predictions by leading information professionals, edited by Alison Scammell, published by ASLIB, and available from Portland Press in the U.K. 
In the Sky: Visions of the Information Future:  “Toward the end of the first century of the Second Millennium, a group of English scholars and bureaucrats worked on a memento for the time called the Doomesday Book. Here we are on the edge of the Third Millennium (give or take a week or two), a group of English-speaking men and women joined in another "doomsday" venture: predicting the future, not just for a mere century but for a millennium. Suicide pills in our pockets, our happy band approaches the task clinging to the knowledge that, unless medical researchers have grossly underestimated their success rate, at least we'll be long gone before anyone starts sneering at our ridiculous misperceptions.” For more on the scenario, see article.

 

Three Scenarios on the Future of Technology and Democracy.
Author: Benjamin Barber, Political Science Quarterly, 1998.
The theme of technology and society has become a popular topic for futurists, but the relationship between democracy and technology remains in many ways, ambiguous.  According to Barber, it is essential that this relationship be better understood.  Is technological growth likely to support or corrupt freedom? Are we finally to be mastered by the tools with which we aspire to master the world?  The conventional wisdom suggests that science and technology, by opening up society and creating a market of ideas, foster more open politics and markets.  With the increasing rate of change typical of modern societies as a fundamental assumption, Barber explores three scenarios.
Scenario 1. The Pangloss Scenario:  “This scenario is rooted in complacency and is simply a projection of current attitudes and trends.  Pop futurologists believe that technology will solve nearly all societal problems.  Al Gore and other techno-zealots believe that computers for the poor and hard wired schools will begin to solve poverty and education; that technology will improve our lives and that we can rely on market forces to realize the perfect technological future. However, as broadband width expanded and a multiple spectra developed, real content programming has remained somewhat limited - the same as it had been for the past ten years.  Entertainment continues to be dominated by monopolies of Anglo-American production companies.  The domination of these new technologies by the market assures that to a growing degree, the profit making entertainment industry in the Anglo-American world will control what is seen around the globe…”
Scenario 2. The Pandora Scenario:  “This scenario looks at the worse possible case in terms of the inherent dangers of technological determinism.  Barber envisions what may happen if government consciously sets out to utilize technology as a means of standardization, control, or repression. With credit and insurance organizations accumulating huge information files on clients, there are driving factors that make this scenario plausible. Here is high cost to privacy.  This world measures the potential for monopoly and control over information and communication and new technology can become a dangerous facilitator over tyranny.  Technology in itself cannot corrupt democracy, but its potential for benign dominion cannot be ignored...”
Scenario 3. The Jeffersonian Scenario:  “This is a world in which the new technologies, in themselves, can offer powerful assistance to the life of democracy.  A free society is free only to the degree that its citizens are informed and that communication among them is open and informed.  According to Barber, this scenario out of the three, is the least probably and “in this sense, a guarded optimism if possible about technology and democracy, but only if citizen groups and governments take action in adapting the new technology to their needs.”  Examples are using the new technologies such as the interactive capabilities of recent television and Internet technology for civic education or using electronic communication to overcome regional parochialism, local prejudice, and national chauvinism. “Technology has made the metaphor of the global village an electronic reality...”

 

Visions of the NII: Ten Scenarios.
The National Information Infrastructure Taskforce, 1998. <http://www.nii.org>

The National Information Infrastructure (NII) is an evolving set of information access, information sharing, transactional, and interpersonal communications networks and information resources that will enhance the working and personal lives of all Americans.  Taskforce This White Paper illustrates some uses of tomorrow's NII, and outlines ten scenarios which accompany underlying technologies that are required to work together to make these scenarios possible.

 Scenario 1. “Homing” From Work: A day in the life of Rita Randolph, tending to family emergencies using video cam on her desk computer at work, voice commands, a home-control map, panels for intelligent home appliances.  
Scenario 2. Businesses United: A day in the life of Fred, a corporate manager.  Technologies utilized to connect companies together using multimedia and interactive email, coordinated screen displays between distant computers, smart online information services, customizable and intuitive user interface and virtual networks. 
Scenario 3. Home Entertainment, Information, and Shopping: A day in the life of Ron, who took an early break from work to enjoy his home entertainment systems.  Technologies utilized to maximize entertainment, information and shopping at home: video on demand in selectable qualities, wall-sized, flat, high-resolution video, high bandwidth for visually oriented shopping and games, customized information presentations, new service retrieving, home shopping at electronic shopping malls. 
Scenario 4. Intelligent Transportation Systems: A day in the life of Paul, a salesman, who needs to navigate the intelligent transportation system to get to an early morning meeting. Technologies utilized to maximize efficient transportation: intelligent highway systems with video surveillance cameras and roadway sensors to collect information; traffic management systems; ubiquitous wireless networking for voice, data, and video. 
Scenario 5. Senior Citizen Use:  A day in the life of a retired grandmother relying on “televisits” to see her grandsons from across the world.  Technologies utilized to maximize effective communication systems among the elderly: High two-way bandwidth supporting videoconferencing; immediate access to essential services providers, such as doctors, with strong privacy protection capabilities; large-screen, high-resolution computer displays; limited speech recognition to control telecommunications services, especially for emergency access.
Scenario 6. Starting a Business: A day in the life of a couple deciding to launch a small business they’d always dreamed of - multimedia games over the NII. Technologies to maximize the “virtual”: government databases providing both information and services on an immediate basis; regulatory environment allowing online interstate registrations, online legal services, and worldwide protection mechanisms for intellectual property; high bandwidth supporting visual communication; human, as well as machine, information specialists to help individuals locate and use electronic information resources; multimedia information sharing and interpersonal communications.
Scenario 7. Middle School From Home: A day in the life of Pauline, a ninth grader, using the school network on the NII to enhance her logical thinking skills on algorithms, abstraction principles, and programming techniques; computerization and data networking in schools, with high-speed connection into the NII and GII; audiovisual personal computers. 
Scenario 8. Telemedicine:   A day in the life of Dr. Sendak, working through telemedicine to enhance visualization tools to convey key concepts in pathology, clinical experience, and conventional and experimental therapies.  Key technologies that enhance tele-medicine: High-speed networking for videoconferencing, large file transfers, and real-time computer visualization of data; networked supercomputing resources for medical and educational applications. 
Scenario 9. Government Services: A day in the life of Dan, an unemployed programmer using government services on the NII to take care of his drivers license renewal and job searching.  Technology requirements for effective job searching (and interviewing on-line): Networking capacity and services for videotelephony, multimedia e-mail and file transfers, and authentication and security functions; high-speed networking for video communications and large file transfers; identity verification by voice; speech recognition systems; extensive databases of government information available to the public with easy-to-use navigational capabilities. 
Scenario 10. Law Enforcement: A day in the life of officer Gutierrez who stops a speeding vehicle through an intercare emergency intercom and through technology, arrests the driver, wanted for armed robbery.  Technology supportive of effective enforcement: Wireless networking, both terrestrial cellular in populated areas and by low-earth-orbiting satellite in sparsely populated areas, with capacity adequate for emergency video and image transmission; visual databases with visual pattern-matching searching in high-powered computers; linking of law enforcement databases, with policy-based restrictions limiting content and access; widely deployed videotelephony services; and voice interaction with communications equipment and networks. 

 

General Motors' White Paper: Perspectives on the Future of Transportation in the Age of Information. 
Taskforce for The Workshop Institute for a New California, 1997.

This paper was prepared for “The Information Age and the California Infrastructure" Workshop, Institute for the New California, San Francisco, 1997.  Within the next 20 years, the United States and the world will undergo unprecedented change. Some of the key forces driving change include: explosive growth of computing; accelerating technology; globalization; urbanization; increasing access to consumer goods; enhanced transportation systems; and growing disparity in lifestyles between knowledge workers and the educationally disadvantaged.  The authors believe that all these forces will significantly impact the mobility of people, goods, and information - which in turn will profoundly influence how the personal transportation industry develops in the 21st century.  By developing a range of scenarios, General Motors has created an “early warning system” to alert the company to potentially significant future events.
Scenario 1. Technology Reigns:  “In a world where technology reigns, society's needs can all be met through technological solutions. Innovations in vehicle technology and roadway infrastructure have led to decreased travel time and improved satisfaction with vehicular travel - despite increasing numbers of vehicles on the road.  The information superhighway is well-developed, and people have the ability to communicate at any time from any location. The personal computer is just that - a "personal" device carried by each individual for communication and information needs…Virtual meetings are common and society is paperless, cashless; technology creates new employment opportunities and knowledge workers do most of their work activities from home…” 
Scenario 2. Momentum:  “In a world of momentum, society continues to build on the technology developments of the last decades of the 20th century. Innovation flows along expected avenues. In fact, technology is harnessed to protect the status quo of American lifestyles.  People are able to maintain their traditional consumption patterns without detriment to the environment. Society continues to be mobile, and people are slow to substitute virtual for real. In fact, slow-to-change social habits inhibit the introduction of radically new technology.  Developments in information technology impact transportation systems, but the primary emphasis is on transactions between vehicle and information provider; automated highway system technologies are coming along more slowly. Heavy industries continue to move offshore, but are being replaced by higher-value industries that require an educated work force...”
Scenario 3. Environmental Domination:  “With global warming no longer a theory, the environment takes center stage and dominates all other social and economic influences. The serious environmental situation drives every decision in both the public and personal arenas.  Given the bleak environmental outlook, our values and culture undergo fundamental change. Support is universal for stringent environmental regulations, which require sacrifice on the part of all. Consumption is now viewed as extravagance, and people scale back their desire for physical goods. People move closer to urban centers and locate near public transportation nodes. Pressures against commuting and extraneous travel have caused a boom in the virtual mobility industry. European-style, high-speed mass transit gains public support in the U.S., while personal vehicles and the fuel they require are taxed at a high level.  In this world, the automotive industry sells transportation rather than vehicles. Industry ownership of vehicles ensures regular updating to more efficient powerplants and systems and recycling of used materials and fluids…”
Scenario 4. Geopolitical Realignment: “The future is a whole new world, as economic factors drive the formation of new geopolitical trading groups. The actions of governments are increasingly influenced by trade considerations, and the world is moving toward one global economy. Driven by business interests, peace breaks out throughout the world. Geographic and political barriers are diminished, with information flowing easily across borders.  As the population continues to expand, many cities become megalopolises requiring large-scale mass transit systems. Even so, personal vehicles remain very much in demand. These are of varied size and utility, depending on the needs, desires, lifestyle, and geographic location of individual consumers. Fuel prices are relatively inexpensive; however, alternatives to petroleum are used increasingly.  With the need to protect the environment and resources, the trend is toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Many cities have green regions, which limit vehicle access or allow only zero-emission vehicles...”

 

Creating the Future: Scenarios for the Digital.
Economy Innovators of Digital Economy Alternatives, Simon Fraser University, 1998

In conjunction with the support of the School of Communication at Simon Fraser University, IDEA - Innovators of Digital Economy Alternatives are a team researching the future opportunities and obstacles that may arise from the adoption of digital commerce technology, specifically: digital cash, smart cards, home banking and other possible future technologies for the purpose of enhancing strategy.

Scenario 1. Centralized Power “Corporations Rule”:  (driving forces: immigration, age, increasing corporate power; financial convergence; on-line banking; traceable cash technologies). “ In the year 2020, we foresee that the steady influx of immigration will result in large ethnic communities. Aged baby boomers (75+) will also need to be considered, as they will constitute a large share of the population. Generation-X (now 40+) and Post Generation-Xers will be the population most adaptable to technological innovations and changes. There will be a convergence of financial institutions and technology. This will be accomplished by financial institutions developing their own software. Types of technologies will include smart cards, where all banking information is contained in a microchip on the card, and consumer databases. Since financial institutions will be the driving force behind developing digital cash and their systems, the control of cash will be in the corporate sector. This may even result in different networks developing different forms of e-cash. With the decrease in government power, organizations may be the only source of financing for social housing or other programs like daycare, even education and health...”
Scenario 2. Decentralized Power: Crypto-Anarchy: (driving forces: decreasing regulation and increasing power of the individual - corporations cater to individual consumer software needs; technology gears toward personal information management).   “This is a future of Decentralized power, in which the government disappears on a federal level or is so weakened that it becomes nothing more than a figurehead. Regulation is minimized and the individual has power and freedom of choice. Individuality thrives as social and political interest become unimportant. There is a widening divergence between the information have and have-nots, increasingly marginalizing the "lo-tecks" in society. Digital cash is the predominant means of exchange. Due to the anonymous and untraceable nature of digital cash it has become impossible to track the income of individuals. Income tax has been abolished in favour of taxes at point of sale and on physical assets. Large corporations have disintegrated and the commercial sector is dominated by highly competitive, specialized companies who cater to the  needs of the individual, supplying primarily innovative technology and software. With the disintegration of large corporations and the fragmentation of financial institutions, decentralized cash systems threaten to obsolesce financial institutions completely…”
Scenario 3. “Third-Sector Ecotopia”: (driving forces: community leadership, community power). “ Issues concerning the collective health of the public take precedence. Environmental concerns and a decline in work available from manufacturing due to high technology combine to create an economy where the non-profit sector will supply the majority of social services.  Federal governments become less responsive to the needs of individual communities; decision-making and social services are decentralized to smaller regional/provincial governments and local councils; electronic networks facilitate some form of more participatory democracy.  Businesses are more accountable for their social and environmental role in society: manufacturing, construction, and distribution of consumer goods with a minimum of environmental impact. Basic level of computer network (Internet) access is maintained through corporate and tax subsidy as a public resource. Public information kiosks; emphasis on technology in education…. Need will arise for a service-based workforce experienced with public relations,  to develop flexible, responsive services to community members…”

 

The Museum of Nanotechnology.
Author: Charles Platt, WIRED News, 1998 <www.wired.com>

Tiny and Great Leaps for the Human Race.   The Units of Nanotech: 1 millimeter = 1/1000th of a meter : 1 micron  = 1/1000th of a millimeter : 1 nanometer = 1/1000th of a micron. Charles Platt

Scenario 1. Biological Ram Chip: “Developed in 2005 by  BioDevices Inc., based in Mountain View, California, this chip was the first commercial use of an organic compound for data storage. "Biological sludge" consisting of a crystalline protein was chemically tailored to bond onto access points on a RAM chip. The sludge accreted in 10,000 additional layers, and each layer stored almost as much data as the original chip. The finished product was able to hold 10 Gbyte.”
Scenario 2. Nanoscale Braille:  “ In 2005, a Dutch-U consortium perfected the application of "bumps" of atoms on an ultrasmooth surface to represent bits of data - creating a revolutionary new storage medium. A massive array of 10,000 tiny, independent mechanical probes scanned the surface, reading data and moving it from one location to another. Each bump of data was about 30 nanometers wide, allowing a single square centimeter to store around 10 Gbytes.”
Scenario 3. DNA Data Storage:  “In 2010, Living Logic Systems of Minneapolis marketed the first cost-effective DNA memory device (a simulation is shown here). Using a technique pioneered 15 years earlier at New York University to force the normally single-stranded DNA molecule to branch into six strands, Living Logic created crystalline DNA: huge arrays of cube-shaped cells, linked like a vast jungle gym. Clusters of copper atoms were attached to each cell in the array, and data was stored by attaching electrons to the clusters. The final result? A chunk of branched DNA about the size of a sugar cube that could store almost 10 petabytes (10 million billion bytes) of information.”
Scenario 4. Asteroid Terraforming:  “The asteroid shown at left is being reworked by preprogrammed nanoscale robots to create a fully equipped space habitat for human colonists. The robots were sent out on a conventional rocket that crash-landed on the preselected asteroid.  After the nanosystems used indigenous carbon and metal ores to make billions of copies of them, they set to work converting the asteroid. When human colonists arrive, they will find comfortable residences ready and waiting. Since this initiative began in 2050, almost 5 million people have relocated to the asteroid belt. Already we are seeing a new generation that has never experienced life on Earth.”  The article continues with three more scenarios: Anti-Cancer Nanomachine; Space Beanstalk; and Multifunction Moleculor Manipulator.

 

Y2K Survival Guide: Protect Your Family from the Coming Crisis. 
The Y2K site: http://www.ytwok.com.

"Apply a little imagination and thought to the perils of Y2K and set them against a backdrop of today's news events. The result is The New York Journal, January 4, 2000"

Scenario 1. State of Emergency and Martial Law Declared in December, 1999: There is strong evidence for the fact that the current administration is planning to use MARTIAL LAW to protect the public from the uncertainties of Y2K, or cyber-terrorism as they refer to it. That will be the subject of an upcoming "Special Report". It is entirely  reasonable that the government will act to minimize the disorder and chaos of January 1, 2000 by invoking controls prior to the date in question. From a strictly pragmatic viewpoint, it is easier to maintain the control through martial law by installing it prior to the disruption of critical infrastructures than it would be to employ it to control the chaos after the disruption.
Scenario 2. Travel Restricted Gatherings Prohibited, Gun Sales Frozen:  Constitutional rights are not the issue here, as martial law essentially sets aside Constitutional guarantees for the citizens. If the impending Y2K crisis is deemed a sufficient threat to authorize martial law the it is reasonable to assume that aspects of martial law would focus on areas of perceived danger to the public's safety.  Public gatherings would need to be controlled to prevent food riots, looting and mass demonstrations. Travel would be restricted to keep workers near their jobs and curfews would attempt to keep looters off the streets at night. To prevent 'civilian vigilantes', the unarmed would be prevented from purchasing weapons and all ammunition sales would be suspended.
Scenario 3. Early Death Toll Reaches 22,000 Plus:   While this early death toll attributed to Y2K may seem ridiculously high, it represents less than one tenth of one percent (.1%) of the American population. Consider all the possible sources of early fatalities; Air plane crashes, train crashes, automobile collisions, looters being shot by store owners and the possible victims of violent crimes in cities with no electricity, no phones and sporadic police protection. Also consider the deaths at the hands of rival inner-city gangs as they fight for control of larger areas or the deaths which may result from the battles between martial law troops and street gangs. Finally there are the individuals who will be hospitalized during the crisis and dependent upon life-supporting equipment, much of which is not Y2K compliant. One tenth of one percent may not be high after all.

 

Y2K Problem: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?
Authors: John L. Peterson, Margaret Wheatley, Myron Kellner-Rogers: The Futurist, October 1998.

The authors adopt a Y2K Scenarios Matrix by David S. Isenberg entitled "Facing the Year 2000" in which four scenarios are identified: 1) Official Future. Isolated technological failures elicit no response from society. Nothing happens. 2) A whiff of Smoke. Isolated failures cause panic. People overreact. 3) Human Spirit. Widespread technical breakdowns bring people together in spirit of communitarianism. Individuals learn that the best survival strategy is cooperation. 4) Millennial Apocalypse. Large-scale technical failures and social breakdown lead to chaos. Government tightens grip in a "Techno-Fascist" future.

 

Using the Internet in the year 2005; Three Scenarios.
Author: Storm A. King , Arachnet. Electronic Journal on Virtual Culture v3n01 (February 5, 1995).

Scenario 1. A Family Get Together:  Family watching a six foot, square wall panel with a screen split into 9 equal squares watching the New Year's celebrations around the world. This is controlled by a wireless control panel with 8-inch flat screen display and full keyboard with joystick and mouse ball built in.  "The room was filled with the reflected patterns of thousands of colored beams dancing around the Eiffel Tower." The show is interrupted with a beep sound emanating from the wall-mounted speakers, for an incoming video call. "On screen," shouted Storm, in his best imitation of Captain Picard. Grandparents appear on screen and are "larger than life."
Scenario 2. Online Therapy:   A depressed loner wanders the streets and comes upon a church: "Open 24 hours, online counseling.  If you need to talk, come in." Entering a small anteroom, the loner activates a monitor by pressing "start" displayed in its center and sat down facing the mounted camera. From San Francisco, the loner is in visual contact with a professional therapist (volunteer) from  Stockholm, who views archived medical records. 
Scenario 3. The World Plays Together: The World's first invitational chess tournament transmitted from China, the final match.   A reporter for the German online live Internet feed typed comments about how the tournament had been organized and how it had all come down to this one match.  He told his audience that over 5000 viewers, some of whom had waited days, had completely used up the available video feeds. It was estimated that the text-based live reports were being viewed in real time by nearly a million people, one of the largest audiences for a single event that the Internet had seen so far.  He continued his narrative, in-between analysis of the moves in progress, with a description of how this largest ever tournament had been organized. Using the vast interconnections of the Internet, tournament organizers had registered over 90,000 players worldwide.

 

Industrial R&D in 2008.
Author: Charles F. Larson   Research Technology Management, Vol. 41, Num. 6, 1998.

Examines five scenarios for driving accelerating change over the next 10 years, and finds information technology and globalization the most prominent drivers Larson argues that the most likely scenario concerning Research and Development in the year 2008 will be a combination of five scenarios; the  blending of these scenarios leads him to the creation of a scenario titled,  "The Laboratory of 2008."
Five scenarios were developed for potential changes in Research and Development management, technology, and innovation due to evolving drivers over the next 10 years.

Scenario 1. Cyclical Change: This scenarios assumes that the current paradigm in R&D-to control costs and to do more with  less-is a cyclical change that has occurred before. Also, this scenario built  on the assumption that different industries were in different phases of the  cycle. Therefore, it was recommended that the early indicator would be those business sectors, which lead the cycles. 
Scenario 2. Globalized R&D: The prediction in this scenario is that as companies continue to become more global, the R&D function will gradually spread throughout the world. Teams will function through electronic networks and management of the R&D  function  could be directed from remote locations.
Scenario 3. R&D Through Partnerships: Assuming that technology will become increasingly complex and more expensive to develop, this scenario states that many companies will choose to maintain their key competencies only in selected core technologies and obtain additional capabilities through partnerships and alliances with other companies, government laboratories, universities, and contract R&D organizations. Various R&D support services will be integrated with other corporate or business-unit functions, resulting in some R&D leaders managing virtual laboratories. 
Scenario 4. Innovation Function Absorbs R&D: This scenario envisions that the future focus of most firms will continue to be on  revenue growth through creation of new products, processes, or services.  Also, through the development of new markets. In response to this emphasis on innovation, the R&D leaders will become business managers as well.
Scenario 5: Networking Counts: In this scenario, it is assumed that networking with peers through organizations will become more important. Changing conditions in the R&D environment will be accommodated so long as opportunities exist for sharing best practices through a growing number of electronic techniques.  This will be blended with the traditional, face-to-face gatherings on specific topics. All R&D managers are becoming "information managers," and all companies are now "information machines," regardless of what products they  sell. This scenario maintains that the only difference is in the way that the managers and companies gather, assimilate, and apply that information. "The paradigm is that R&D must either network or not work." 
Larson's Scenario: The Laboratory of 2008: People in the industrial R7D laboratory of 2008 will be more risk-taking and business-oriented, with skills that are constantly being upgraded. Technical intelligence will be fully integrated throughout the firm and far more comprehensive than today. Technical work will be more efficient and effective, utilizing a wide variety of outside resources. Flexible organizational structures and enterprise integration will capitalize on a new era of creativity for growth and competitiveness. Leadership and skillful management will be critical elements of these evolving processes.

 

Emerging Designs for Work, Living, and Learning in the Communicative Age.
Author:Tony Stevenson and June Lennie.  Futures Research Quarterly, fall 1995.

Recent social, political, and cultural changes indicate that Australia and the rest of the world could be at a crucial turning point where we need to think carefully about out choice of future directions.  Futurists from diverse cultures, such as Henderson and Yamaguchi and Niwa argue that we must make a radical effort to pursue new visions, strategies, and metaphors suitable for a more desirable future at a time when communication and information technologies (C & IT) are assuming more importance.  This type of thinking is leading to the emergence of creative new designs for work, living, and learning including participatory forms of democracy, sustainable economic development, non-hierarchical organizational structures, and interactive education and training that take gender, equity and cultural issues into consideration and use C&IT to meet a diversity of needs and values.

A framework based on three alternative future scenarios is proposed, that allows the reader to consider the consequences of emerging social, economic, and political structures following certain pathways.  The scenarios are: The Communicative Age, The Conventional Age, and the Artificial Age.  The reader is encouraged to check the original reference for  more detailed version of the scenarios.   “ It is unlikely that scenarios other than the Conventionalor the  Communicative Age will be entirely clear within another generation, in comparison to the Artificial Age which relies more on radical new technologies that are not yet well developed.  All three are the product of our white Western perspective and may favour possibilities for developed countries, such as Australia, although they could well emerge, and indeed have the seeds for emergence, in developing countries.  While the Conventional Age sees the future as largely more of the same, the alternative Communicative Ageis envisioned from foresight and assumes that emerging social designs which have broken free from the dominator model will gain wider acceptance than at present.  It also assumes a world more adept than at present at dealing with complexity, incoherence and uncertainty. By contrast, in the Artificial Age, the future is seen as a quantum leap.  High-tech examples of artificial living are hearing devices and genetically engineered plants, which low-tech examples are air conditioning  and nutrition through vitamin pills.  While many of these developments are useful to society, we believe that the image of a dehumanized world, which could eventuate in the Artificial Age, should be rejected.  The Conventional Age emphasizes technological determinism, rationalist, individualism, and conflict while the Communicative Age emphasizes holistic, human-centered activities and community development through the negotiation of meaning, critical reflection, cooperation, and individuation. A world dominated by science and technology would tend to become increasingly dehumanized and spiritual values, as we know them, could be threatened or eventually disappear. New forms of conflict could also emerge. Conventional Age people would see new technologies as extensions of existing technologies rather than a transformation, which Communicative Age people would use new technologies to actively transform society by facilitating participate democracy and the global sharing of information and resources.  In the Artificial