III Technological Capacity

Scenario 1. S&T Develops a Mind of its Own
The rate of scientific discoveries and advanced technological applications exploded. A global science/social feedback system was at work: science made people smarter, and smarter people made better and faster science. Better and faster science opened new doors to discovery, and new doors led to synergies and solving of old roadblocks. Removing the roadblocks created new science that made people smarter. S&T moved so fast that government and international regulations were left in the dust. Science and technology appeared to be taking on a mind of its own.
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Scenario 2. The World Wakes Up
The murder of 25 million people in 2021 by a self-proclaimed Agent of God who created the genetically modified Congo virus finally woke the world up to the realization that an individual acting alone could create and use a weapon of mass destruction. This phenomenon became known as SIMAD—Single Individual Massively Destructive. Regulatory agencies and mechanisms were put into place to control the science- and technology-related dangers that became apparent. Education was a big part of the answer, but connecting the educational systems with the security systems was disturbing to some people. Nevertheless, further individual acts of mass destruction were prevented. International and government regulations did manage the S&T enterprise for the public good.
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Scenario 3. Please Turn off the Spigot
Science was attacked as pompous and self-aggrandizing, as encouraging excesses in consumption, raising false hopes and—worse—unexpected consequences that could destroy us all. Particularly worrisome was accidentally or intentionally released genetically modified organisms and the potential for weapons of mass destruction. The poor were ignored. A science guru arose to galvanize the public. A global commission was established but failed because of corruption. But a new commission with built-in safeguards seemed to be working.
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Scenario 4. Backlash
Control was low and science moved fast, but negative consequences caused public alarm. The golden age of science was hyped by the media, but it all proved to be a chimera. Some of the most valued
discoveries and new capabilities had a downside and surprises abounded. Rogue nations took advantage of some of these shortcomings. The level of concern rose. Mobs protested. Regulation failed.
Progress stalled. And corporate (or government) scientists frequently felt pressure from within their organizations. Both corporate and government organizations could not be counted on to self-regulate.
What’s next?
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The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life. Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill
Chapter: An Ambient Intelligent Home Scenario. Authors: Emile Aarts, Rick Harwig, and Martin Schuurmans

(Emile is department head of the Media Interaction Group of the Philips Research Laboratories Eindhoven. Rich Harwig is managing director, Philips Research Eindhoven. Martin Schuurmans is executive Vice President of the Philips Centre for Industrial Technology).

In this scenario, the authors describe life at home in the future. The home is “intelligent,” filled with technological gadgets that keep its occupants in touch with each other and themselves.
Ellen, the fictional main character returns home from work. The intelligent security system recognizes her and automatically unlocks the door. As she enters the home, the “house map” indicates the locations of both her spouse (who is in Paris) and child (who is in the playroom). In the kitchen, the “family memo board” indicates there are messages to which Ellen must attend: one is from the refrigerator, requesting confirmation on the grocery list before it is sent to the supermarket; another is relaying information she requested regarding holiday cottages in Spain. Ellen connects via video screen to speak with her daughter in the playroom and to her husband in Paris for a viewing of the art he intends to buy. Thinking of dinner, she views the display of menus that are based upon the food currently in the refrigerator and pantry.
Later that evening, Ellen works out to her own personalized routine and watches as the virtual presenter relays the information that has collected on the home server during the day. In the bathroom, the mirror does a quick check up for weight gain and protein levels. After scanning the next day’s agenda, the intelligent wake up system asks Ellen for her desired wake up time and wake up experience.

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The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology Into Everyday Life. Peter Denning, Editor, 2002, McGraw-Hill. Chapter: Engineering the Ocean. Author: Marcia K. McNutt (President & CEO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, President of American Geophysical Union)

In this chapter, author Marcia McNutt describes a future of oceanography the will have a “fundamentally different strategy”: the use of autonomous observatories, drifters, and rovers to explore the oceans and return important data. She supposes that within the next few decades, because of the information these systems can return that we will “understand, or at least think we understand, how the climate system works, what limits ocean productivity, the complete ecology of commercial fish species, and the other mysteries of the ocean.” This understanding could lead to predictions of the “weather” of the oceans.
By 2025, Ms McNutt indicates low-cost drifters will have been riding the ocean’s currents for decades, each relaying its position and the water’s ambient temperature and salinity via satellite to a central data processing facility. “The data from these drifters are combined with meteorological data and immediately integrated in a massive global ocean model that predicts the "weather" of the ocean: temperatures, currents, locations and velocities of fronts, and so on. The models are run forward into the future to provide forecasts for shipping companies, naval operations, and the growing number of multinational companies that have commercial operations in the ocean.” The data, combined with improved models, will provide fairly reliable forecasts for periods of a week or more; and when run further into the future, will be helpful in “predicting overall heating and cooling of the ocean, major changes in poleward heat transports and variations in the intensity of the boundary currents. This information is vital to farmers in deciding what crops to plant based on projections of temperature and rainfall from the ocean climate model. Much of the guesswork in the global commodities market (will have) disappeared once the global ocean climate forecasts became generally available.”
In Ms McNutt’s scenario during 2025, the computer model also indicates the probability of a massive El Nino, one that may be most extreme event of its kind ever recorded. “Even more worrisome, a forward projection of the climate models predicts that the El Nino will lead to an unusually warm winter and summer in the northeastern Atlantic, causing further melting of the Greenland ice sheet, already destabilized by global warming.” The warming triggered by the El Nino could take the planet into another ice age.
Fearful citizens will be demanding action from their governments. Governments consider “dumping a tanker of oil in the western Indian Ocean to decouple the ocean from the anomalous wind stress, thereby averting or at least lessening the impact of the El Nino” or constructing dams “across the streams that drain the Greenland ice sheet to prevent the water from reaching the ocean.”

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Street Trends: How Today’s Alternative Youth Cultures are Creating Tomorrow’s Mainstream Markets. Author: Janine Lopiano-Misdom and Joanne De Luca, 1997, HarperCollins Pub.

“The distant future – it’s kind of scary, but I imagine the future as a scene out of The Terminators, where there’s people versus people. I think the street people are going to continue to grow, and I think the more sophisticated people are going to stay indoors. I think there is going to be a major separation between the two.” Attusa, 24, student, LA

“In the future, everything will be back like it used to be with the earth like a garden, just because that’s where real happiness is and peace – in nature…” Jade, 22, student, LA

“Oh, the future is all about computers and new media, but I think the real new media is probably person to person or better communication. That more valuable than the Internet will ever be…” Myles, 22, student, San Diego

“2010? 2020? I think it’s just gonna be faster communication – faster than it is now. Still don’t see governments changing that much to do great causes. This whole capitalistic greed will still be around – people will be killing each other for money, wherever it is. The US might not be the US anymore – might not have as much power as we do now. 2020 … it’s hard to say because I think other countries are definitely coming up with economic power – the Asian block, the European block – it’s gonna be interesting who’s gonna be making global influences then.” Lee, 22, web site designer, Austin TX

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Chronicle of the Future (website)
www.chronicle-future.co.uk

Chronicle of the Future offers a virtual “World’s Fair” of futures – complete with frankenfoods Bill Gates’ clone and “personcopters” (single-seat hybrid helicopter/planes). Dubbed “Tomorrow’s News Today” the website offers a stunning array of scenario vignettes from 2000 – 2050, each structured as a news article of the future and organized by 20 topic areas (such as business, crime, ecology, media, personalities, sport, technology and war). The following is an excerpt from a scenario in the year 2026 titled “Magic touch, son”: “Remember 'land football'? FIFA, the game's world governing body, has finally acknowledged virtual reality football as a sport in its own right. The decision follows the latest release of Top Score, the VR game from software company K. Broadcast rights to the game have been snapped up by WorldWeb, which plans to screen a monthly big match from the world VR football league. It expects a global audience of at least 2 billion. WW monitors the current rankings of VR teams and their
players and then selects the games featuring the most exciting sides for broadcast. K's holograph technology allows the players to maintain a speed and style of game impossible to match on a real pitch - and without any risk of injury, so there will be no opportunity for star players to linger on the treatment table. Although WW is starting out on a monthly basis - provided the players can stay awake - the number of games that can be played in a season is practically limitless. And likewise, the earnings potential of the top players is almost infinite.”

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Spacecast 2020, vol.1 Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, June 1994. Authors: Prepared by the students and faculty of Air University.

In May 1993, the chief of staff of the United States Air Force directed Air University to undertake a study to identify capabilities for the period of 2020 and beyond and the technologies to enable them which will best support preserving the security of the United States. The scenarios are based on three “dimensions” of the future world: the number of actors playing a role in space; the will of the actors to use space; and the technological proliferation and growth and economic vitality of the actors, or their technomic capability.

Scenario 1) Spacefaring World: “The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be involved in space. This world also has high technomic vitality representing the capability to be involved in space. The Spacefaring world is characterized by many actors with strong desires to engage in space-related activity enabled by vast economic growth and proliferation and ebullient technological vitality. Specifically, the government is one of many actors in the Spacefaring world where individuals, transnationals, and supranationals are all highly active and competitive within a stable interdependent environment. Free trade and a global industrial policy stimulate technomic vigor. Space investment is an economic reality with wide economic opportunity available to many. In this world, space activity is proliferated, global, and expanding and the military is involved across the board, even though the militarization of space is limited.

Scenario 2) Rogue World: Rogue world. This is a world in which there are few actors with a desire to be in space and limited technological and economic capability, but the will of some actors to be involved in space will be very high. . The features of this world are characterized by a few space actors, low technomic vitality, and a strong will for involvement by some. The interesting actors are principally states and political actors. There will be few space entrepreneurs in this world, and the international political system will be characterized by shifting alliances. The low technomic vitality will be evidenced by tiered shifting economies, protectionism, and embargoes against the rogues. These rogues will be willing to sacrifice domestic needs to preserve national security and to receive the prestige associated with space activity. [Technologically], few breakthroughs are evident [in this world]. As a result of the lack of cooperation associated with the spread of scientific knowledge, this world has limited or little advanced propulsion. The use of space in the Rogue world is limited, but leaders of such a state perceive it to be critical. The military's role in space is on the rise. Counterforce potential is very high and increasing, particularly with the development of highly capable anti-satellite weapons (ASAT). The military's logistical role in space is moderate and characterized by limited activity and infrastructure. On the other hand, the military's role in monitoring and reporting is high. The relationship between civilian and government space activity is weak and the amount of activity has been essentially low. There is almost no human activity in space.”

Scenario 3) Mad Max Incorporated: Mad Max Incorporated world is characterized by many actors with a strong desire to be in space, but actors who are limited by very low technomic vitality. The dominant space actors are corporate rather than political entities. This world is very competitive and potentially conflictual. Space actors in the Mad Max Incorporated world are predominantly corporations. Governments in this world have become welfare states or welfare guardians. The low technomic vitality is characterized by the continuous shifting of internal corporate resource allocations as companies move money from state to state to meet their needs. Trade is moderate, and corporations are pursuing profits while states are focused on domestic needs. Technology development and its proliferation are irregular. Wide-scale political and social space vision has been lost. Political leaders have abandoned space to corporations seeking a niche in space. Political leaders explain away this lack of policy by claiming that the cost of space is too high and the taxpayers are not willing to foot the bill. Instead, political leadership is increasingly consumed by reactions to crises relating to welfare, health, and protection of the environment.

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The Future of M-Commerce DTN Network. Credit for this work is acknowledged to the following students of ENPC MBA program, Paris, France; class of 2000: Fenella Davis, Sebastian Wossagk, Giancarlo Giangola, Ripu Daman Singh, Misako Oki, and Magnus Sande.

These four scenarios represent a range of driving forces on the future of mobile-commerce (m-commerce). These forces were placed within a scenario matrix spectrum with the vertical axis displaying the extremes of global acceptance of mobile-commerce to global resistance of mobile-commerce; the horizontal axis displaying the extreme of fragmentation of m-commerce in the marketplace and the globalization of m-commerce in the marketplace on the other extreme.

Scenario One: Global Mobile (acceptance and globalization). January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake Up “My wife called me on my mobile from downstairs to wake me up. She used her own mobile hanging on the wall and said that breakfast was ready. We smiled at each other on the screens of our mobiles. I took a quick shower and went to the dining room. I wear the multi-functional "wrist-mobile" for 24 hours a day since my life, both business and social, is completely controlled by it. Our children also came into the room and started playing with the game on their mobiles. I was reading the "e-newspapers" and ëe-mailsí, and called my business partners to confirm today's meeting. In actual fact I don't have to go to the office and see people face-to-face since "tele-working" and "tele-conferencing" are the current trends of working style. So my company employees basically work at their homes and communicate with each other through the big screen sets. My children have also their own mobiles and take them to the school. On the way to my office, I was stuck in a traffic jam, but as the built-in music player on my mobile was playing I did not get irritated.”

9:00 Arrive at Office “I needed to double-check my business diary for today's schedule on my mobile. I prepared for today's work carefully, and still I had 40 minutes to spare before my first meeting so I checked my account balance and financial market through my mobile. My "e-wallets" told me that I could afford to buy additional shares. I quickly switched the mode to the internet on my mobile, confirmed the market trend and decided to execute the trade. "Mobile banking" is very popular and its security system of data transfer is fully guaranteed. The mobile phone is now in wide-spread use driven by demand from not only personal users but also business users looking for increased flexibility and productivity. Now is the year 2005, the mobile phone is combined with everything, not only computers, internet and business but also television & radio and even music ! In addition to that, we can do business and regular checkups. Still it is getting cheaper, smaller and lighter with high functionality so people can choose from many kinds of mobile phones.”

10:00 Meeting “I went to the meeting room and had a "tele-conference". We have so many issues that we have to deal with. We analyzed our competitors within the same industry and the discussion was getting heated after 1 hour. One of my business partners suggested that we should take account of the government's policy. Surely it really has a big affect on the business community and the government is highly aware of the internet and "e-commerce" as they are likely to change the economic system as a whole. I put particular emphasis on the mobile phone because I believe that this is the most useful and convenient technology. Global standardization ñ a world-wide information infrastructure - is set in almost all countries now. We are heading into the digital world more and more. The driving force of technology has brought about business restructuring and a communication revolution. We wrapped up our meeting and were all exhausted although we had had a fruitful discussion. I was very hungry but I had lots of work to do before catching a flight in 2 hours time.”

12:00 Lunch “I opened the lunch box and called my wife to ask what she was doing now. The screen of our mobiles was divided into two because she was talking with one of her friends in another country. The three of us said "hello" and "how are you ?" to each other. I realized that time was running out fast, so I said goodbye and hung up. I packed up my briefcase immediately and left my office around 12:30.”

14:00 Catch Flight “ I was getting a little nervous but I was sure that I could still catch the flight. All I needed was a shortcut so I checked the "e-navigator" for the traffic and followed the guide. I had already arranged my flight on my mobile, and everything was done smoothly. Again my mobile was the main player for the flight arrangement including the check-in and customs. Everyone 'carries' "e-drivers license", "e-passport" or "e-social welfare number" as their ID. It was only a 2 hour flight and the plane was about to go across the border soon after take-off. I called my children at this time and asked them whether everything at school was all right. Talking with my family is my most enjoyable time especially when I am under heavy pressure on my job. They looked fine on the screen of my mobile.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “The flight arrived on time as scheduled but I did not have time to take a rest before the business dinner. I was in a hurry to find the restaurant where I was meeting with my clients. I called them from my mobile and said that I would do my best to get there on time. They kindly answered "take your time, we will wait for you. Thank you for calling!". I took a taxi at the airport and decided to do some work in the taxi. I sent some "e-mail" to various clients and other people. For the last couple of years dramatic changes have occured in technological industry and the digital economy was accelerated rapidly. Everyone has access to the sights and sounds of a mobile multimedia world. Everyone and anyone can afford to participate. We have the ability to communicate with the world from anywhere. Major telecoms and computer vendors aiming to dominate in this market are forming alliances. Computer manufacturers are also the producers of communication appliances. There are many varieties of these appliances sold at the cheap price.”

18:00 Business Dinner “I actually managed to be on time at the restaurant and we tried to finalize our contract. We enjoyed the business dinner since everything went as well as both sides expected. Usually, we conduct our business through "tele-conferencing" but this time we had decided to meet in person. However, I could not help thinking that we could have done this by using our electronic tools as usual. We have already established very reliable relationships. If we look at this meeting from our side it was expensive ! We paid for flight ticket and spent a lot of time. I agreed with our clients on the following procedures as a next step for the deals should be done at each office. Ultimately, we are living in the "e-world" now ! The world is becoming a common marketplace in which people desire the same product and lifestyles. By uniting the world market global standards of mobile phone ensured the compatibility between systems from different manufacturers and in different countries. Not only technological, economical, social and political aspects but also environmental aspect should not been ignored. This new economy created by "e-business" is generating enormous environmental benefits by reducing the amount of energy and materials consumed by businesses and increasing overall productivity. Paperless is of course highly acceptable and "e-business" is very eco-friendly.”

22:00 Local Entertainment “After dinner I went to a hotel where I was supposed to stay overnight. In a small single room I called my wife and children to say "good night". I was so tired and thinking hard about what happened today. It was definitely a long day ! I decided to go to bed early in order to save my own energy. I don't have to set the alarm because the morning call from my wife will wake me up.”

Scenario Two: “Noble Mobile” (globalization and resistance) January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake up “The alarm on my clock went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, opening my laptop to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. On the home page, there is a photo of a teenaged girl, and the article read that she had a brain tumor due to the radiation that is emitted from the mobile phone. The same story was also on the live news on CNN's website. I closed it in frustration as my company produced new generation mobile internet phones and recently we invested 10 billion dollars for its promotion world wide, giving it away almost for free. I started the car and the digital map on my dashboard showed me the best possible route to the office.”

9:00: Arrive at Office “Outside the gates of the office, the security guard had a difficult time clearing away the protestors in front of the company headquarters carrying placards referring to the company as "the wireless killer machine".

10:00 Meeting “Just at 10:00, my mobile rang in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting, the marketing director briefed us on the current situation about the wide spread protest in the bloc of developing countries due to the dumping of mobile phones. They were being the greatest environmental threat, larger than even plastics. So I decided to go there, for a first hand eyewitness. I got my tickets booked through my laptop, which gave me hundreds of options for the trip. I chose one according to my preference, which was already entered into the computer. Compared to the booking opportunity on my new internet mobile prototype, my PC had unlimited information from various agents and my ticket was booked in moments.”

12:00 Lunch My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just in time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Again, the traffic service guided me to the closest empty parking space for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my credit card as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight “I checked in using the e-ticketing information at the automatic booth ñ the system identified me and then issued my boarding pass. I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane because the system interfered with the aviation systems. This had recently lead to the worst crash in aviation history.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “When I arrived at my destination, I switched the mobile on and realised that I had 30 missed calls. I tried to call the marketing manager through my mobile but I kept getting the message that his mobile is switched off. Then I realised that due to excessive ringing, many people are now opting to leave their phones turned off. I attempted to send a wireless email using my WAP phone, but soon found that the system was very complicated, the manual was back in the office, and I was in a rush to get to my meeting. Therefore, I sent him an SMS confirming my arrival. I turned to my laptop, browsed through the net and easily located the best and nearest place of hiring a car. I rented a car and proceeded to the business dinner.”

18:00 Business Dinner “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to meet with the Environment Minister to discuss the unrest. First, I attempted to change my flight plans on the mobile internet, however, I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up. M-commerce gave very little local information and took a long time to find what I needed. Therefore, I used my credit card in a pay phone to ring the airline and then asked a passer-by for a nearby hotel. I called home to explain that I would be a day late. However, my wife also had her mobile switched off. Back in the hotel an hour later, I used the simpler and cheaper option of contacting her though video conferencing on my laptop. At first she was disappointed in my changed itinerary, but I finally assuaged her through my facial expressions.”

22:00 Local Entertainment “After the video call, I found I was still wide-awake. I gave the mobile one last try - surely I could find some local information on nearby entertainment - it could not be that hard, could it? However, I just could not get the system to tell me anything! It was pouring with rain by this time so I just went and had a drink in the hotel bar before organising with reception to give me a wake up call in the morning. I dozed off to sleep while a DVD movie played on my laptop screen.”

Scenario Three: "Futile Mobile" (fragmentation and resistance) January 31, 2005
7:30 Wake Up “I didn't actually wake up until 7:50, and then just by chance. There was a power outage during the night, so when I glanced at the alarm clock it flashed 12:00. Fortunately I was only 20 minutes late and not more. One week ago I was selected by France Telecom to receive a free Nokia internet mobile phone, along with wireless internet service for one year, as part of a promotion designed to encourage mobile internet phone use in Europe. I heard that one of the features was a wake up alarm, however I have no idea how it works. The phone is somewhat complicated and not many of my friends or colleagues have a mobile internet phone. I need to look into that over the weekend. Normally I would check my stock quotes in the paper and listen to the news on television during breakfast, but I now had no time for either. I rushed into the shower, dressed quickly, and raced out the door. My schedule was such that I had to drive into work today. As I rolled onto the A223 there was a delay from the moment I entered the on ramp. I had come too far for an alternate route and after 30 minutes of traffic jams, found that an accident had occurred. I had only traveled five kilometers and still had 30 to go. If only I had known!”

9:00 Arrival at Office “I finally located a parking spot at the far end of the lot. Due to the traffic and the alarm clock, I was 30 minutes late to work this morning - not a good start on an extremely busy day in which I was due out of town. I entered the building, flashed my ID card to security and took the elevator up to 15. There was no coffee left in the machine at this hour, but who has time for coffee with only half an hour until a meeting I planned on preparing for at 9:00? No time to spare.”

10:00 Meeting at Office “At 9:55 an important client called and I soon became engrossed in conversation. At 10:10 my secretary buzzed me that the marketing director was wondering where I was. I hung up with the client and scurried off to my meeting. The meeting was only scheduled until 11:00, however, several new items were added to the agenda. My stomach started grumbling at noon. Realising we were soon to be done, I made the excuse that I had to use the restroom and left the conference room in order to find some lunch - if I ordered now, it would be here by the time the meeting finished and I would have time to eat before leaving for the airport. However, now that I was outside the conference room, I realised I could not walk to my office to use the phone, as there was a window overlooking the corridor from the conference rooms and the restrooms were in the opposite direction. My mobile phone! I thought I would use my phone to place the order from outside the conference room, but as soon as I reached into my pocket, grabbed the device, and started to dial the number, I found that I did not have any reception in the inner corridor of the building. I guess I was not going to have any lunch today.”

12:00 Lunch “Rather than worry further about eating, I decided to call the airline to confirm my departure time. Twenty minutes after being on hold and fighting my way through the elaborate menu of choices, I finally got through to an airline operator. As my flight was on time, I was now rushing out of the office. On the way to the airport, I remembered having heard a news report a month ago which stated that New Zealand businessmen were using their mobile phones to access information from the Internet, specifically with respect to travel and airlines. What a great service that is, however, in Europe this technology is not widely accepted and used so far. If it were, it certainly would have made my life easier today, as I am now under great stress attempting to catch my flight.”

14:00 Catch Flight “As I arrived at the terminal, there was a huge queue of travellers waiting to check in. Fortunately, it was announced that the flight was now delayed due to de-icing of the plane. If it weren't for the new delay, I would have certainly missed the flight. I took this brief moment to call my stockbroker, as there was a trade I wanted to make after hearing a news report in the car on the way to the airport. I went to the stock quote option on my internet mobile and thought, "What a great gadget this is - I never would have been able to place this trade otherwise." No sooner did I think this, but I soon found that the my phone's network would not support this transaction. No stock trading today afterall. "This phone is more frustration than help," I now contemplated. “

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “We arrive on time due to a strong tail wind. I found my way through customs quite easily, as I am accustomed to the routine with the passport and papers and keep them handy in my breast pocket. I next reached the car rental counter. I was issued keys for the car and asked the attendant to map out directions to my destination. I get off to a good start, but soon become confused, as I am in a new area. I consult the map, but almost get into an accident when I take my eyes off the road. I decided to pull over for a moment. I asked a passer-by for directions and carried on to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner ”The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and reached for my mobile phone to call the airline and reschedule my travel plans. As I switched on the power, the screen flashed in big block letters: "NO SERVICE." "Why doesn't the phone work outside of my countryÖIím only two hours away?" I thought. I excused myself from the table and went to find a pay phone. Unfortunately, the pay phones in this country take only phone cards and not change. I had to go out to the store across the street, buy a phone card, return to the restaurant, place the call, and finally return to the dinner 25 minutes later. My wife! I returned to the public phone, dialled home, and was connected to my daughter. My wife came on a moment later, just as the phone card expired. At least my daughter will be able to tell my wife that I will not be home this evening. Through the window, I spotted a flower shop across the street, braved the snow once again, and sent flowers home. I returned to the table for the second time, having been gone at this point for one hour. Fortunately, we were done for the night and so we arranged to meet in the morning. I then set out for the car. The waiter had drawn me a map of how to get to the hotel I spotted on the way to the restaurant and I drove there - only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

22:00 Local Entertainment. ”Once I had checked in at the hotel, I found I was still wide-awake. I thought I would attempt to find some local entertainment information. I consulted the phone book and found a movie theatre in the neighbourhood. I wanted to call the theatre to learn the schedule, but the hotel phone system was not working due to the snow storm - the phone lines were down outside the hotel. Of course the mobile phone isn't working here - maybe I should simply give the phone back to France Telecom. It hasn't helped me at all today - the day I have needed it most thus far. I decided to call it a night and went to the hotel desk to request a knock on the door in the event that the phones are still not working in the morning for a wake-up. I'm certainly not relying on the digital alarm clock in the hotel room.”

Scenario Four: “Local Mobile”. (acceptance and fragmentation)
7:30 Wake Up “The alarm on my mobile went off at 7:30 this morning and I leapt out of bed, tapping it gently off as I headed for the shower. Once dressed, I sat down to breakfast, rolling out the bigger screen on the mobile to check the news and my stocks as I ate quickly. I also took the opportunity to do a quick scan of the local traffic conditions as I had to drive into work today ñ the traffic service on the mobile recommended a different route than normal as there had been a major accident on the A223. As I drove into work I kept the big screen exposed and followed the directions from the service.”

9:00 Arrive at Office “The mobile beeped gently once as it identified me for the automatic security in the parking building and the screen flashed up with the closest empty parking space. I checked my schedule on the smaller screen as I waited for the lift up to the 15th floor and my office. The coffee was piping hot as I grabbed a cup just outside the lift ñ my mobile had notified the coffee machine as we entered the building.”

10:00 Meeting “Just on 10:00 my mobile vibrated gently in my pocket to let me know that the marketing director was ready for our meeting. During the meeting I suddenly realised I had forgotten to organise some lunch so I used the small screen to discreetly place my order. I also checked that my flights were all on schedule for the afternoon ñ no problems there. This was all so simple as my mobile system knew all my preferences and anticipated what I would be wanting.”

12:00 Lunch “My lunch was waiting in my office when I got back with just time to eat before returning to my car to head for the airport. Once again, the traffic service guided me and directed me to the closest empty parking for my flight departure. The automatic parking system recognised my mobile as I drove in and debited my account with the fees.”

14:00 Catch Flight “I checked in using the e-ticketing information on my mobile at the automatic booth ñ the system also identified me so it issued my boarding pass. Unfortunately, I had to switch the mobile off as I boarded the plane; the system was not supported once I was out of the country.”

16:00 Flight Arrival at Destination “When I arrived at my destination I had to dig around in my briefcase to find my physical passport. I knew it was there somewhere but it had been a while since I had needed it. At the rental car counter I absentmindedly held out my mobile but the man behind the counter shook his head, their system would not recognise it. So that meant another search for a credit card and my driverís licence! The rental car company provided a local mobile with the car and I fiddled with it as I waited for the paperwork to be completed. I tried to find the traffic information but couldnít get the system to recognise any of my commands. The rental car assistant pointed out that I needed to hold the control key down to get into the menu I needed. I shook my head in frustration, why are all these systems so different? As I climbed into the car I managed to push the wrong button on the mobile and cancelled all the directions I needed and there was no way I could get back into it again. Eventually I stopped and asked someone for directions to the restaurant where I was meeting my clients.”

18:00 Business Dinner “The dinner went very well and we agreed that I would stay overnight instead of heading home immediately as planned. This would give us the opportunity to get the contract signed and completed the following day. I was feeling good as we wrapped up for the evening and I reached for my mobile to reorganise my travel. Unfortunately that feeling didnít last long as I struggled with the strange system, eventually giving up and using my credit card in a pay phone to ring the hotel recommended by the waiter. It took several minutes to change my flights on the phone as well ñ I had got so used to my mobile taking care of identification and other such details. Then I had to call home to explain that I would be a day later than planned. My wife wasnít too happy about the change in plans so I thought I would send her some flowers ñ an easy task on my mobile at home, but not here! The waiter drew me a map of how to get to the hotel and I drove there ñ only had to stop once to ask for directions from a passer-by.”

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Beyond The Internet. Author: Charles W. Schmidt, freelance science writer living in Portland, Maine.
Special thanks goes to Neil Gershenfeld of the MIT Media Laboratory for providing invaluable background and insight in technology futures. Thanks also goes to Charlie Plot (California Institute of Technology), David Tennenhouse ( Intel Corporation), John Seely Brown (Xerox Corporation), Kris Pister (University of California, Berkeley), Mark Grey and Jim Closs (NASA), John Ledyard (California Institute of Technology), and Cherry Murray (Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies).

Mr. Schmidt explores the second wave of connectivity, where "intelligence" is embedded in the objects and materials of our daily lives, creating huge and ubiquitous networks. Scientific understanding will continue to grow. Environmental gains are possible.

Scenario One: Beyond the Internet. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2002, we are surrounded by computers. Computers in 2010 disappear altogether. According to the pioneers of information technology (IT) that's exactly what happened. Not that this world is a world of written ledgers and the abacus -- far from it. What it means is by 2010 computers are literally absorbed by their surroundings and embedded in walls, carpets, toasters, neckties, and even our own bodies. As computing dissolves into the environment it becomes as pervasive as the electricity flowing through society. Some scientists suggested the earth will be wrapped in a "digital skin," transmitting signals over the Internet almost as a living creature relays impulses through its nervous system. Millions of sensors probe and monitor highways, cities, factories, forests, oceans, and the atmosphere. Some are linked to orbiting satellites -- extending the reach of this digital infrastructure into outer space. Scientists refer to this scenario as ubiquitous or pervasive computing. Either way, the bottom line is the same: an unprecedented level of connectivity. The international consulting firm Ernst & Young predicted that by 2010 there will be nearly 10,000 telemetric devices (meaning devices that transmit or receive data) for every person on earth. Because in 2010, managing connectivity on a scale like that is too difficult for humans to do on their own, network management will be partially delegated to software programs called agents that learn about their users and act autonomously on their behalf. The way humans interact with computers changes profoundly. Instead of typing commands into a passive box, humans use speech and physical gestures to communicate with computers much as they do with anyone else. Computer networks are adaptive, intelligent, and self-organizing.”

Scenario Two: The Networked Physical World. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “Down in the trenches of MIT's famous Media Laboratory, Associate Professor Neil Gershenfeld reflects on the bits and the atoms. "The bits are the good stuff," he muses, referring to these units of digital information. "They consume no resources, they travel at the speed of light, we can copy them, they can disappear, we can send them around the globe and construct billion dollar companies." Contrasting them with physical objects, he says, "The atoms are the bad stuff. They consume resources, you have to throw them away, they're old-fashioned." In 2010, a continuing challenge for the 21st Century is to find ways to "bring the bits into the physical world." In this world, computers are brought into the stuff of everyday life by embedding them into ordinary objects and machines. Inexpensive servers bring Internet access to household appliances and office equipment. People take for granted that microwave ovens download cooking instructions from the Web or that alarm clocks reset themselves after a power outage. The cheapest gateways to the Internet comprises sensors and radiofrequency (RF) tags linked to networked microprocessors. An RF tag is actually a silicon chip that emits an electronic signal in the presence of the energy field created by a device called a reader. Tags already have some familiar uses in 2002 -- for instance driving through an automatic toll booth causes an RF tag to boot up and identify your car. In 2010, tags and readers are linked to the Internet, opening up new worlds of opportunities. “Smart" fridges monitor tagged products, learn food preferences and shopping schedule, and eventually buy all a household’s groceries. Washing machines monitor colors -- toss a tagged red sock into a pile of white laundry, and the machine will shut down. Tagged pill bottles in a medicine cabinet allow doctors to monitor patient compliance with prescriptions, remotely. Companies will be able to determine the whereabouts of all their products, all the time. This capability provides some important environmental benefits: real-time product tracking enables manufacturers to save millions in cash and energy resources by shifting to a process that matches production to consumption, item for item. Tagged products become self-managing; able to convey their identity and composition to networked trash containers and recycling centers.”

Scenario Three: Here Come the Jetsons. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2010, scientists devised ways to ship bits rather than atoms to manufacture products remotely. Printers called "personal fabricators" are used to make things like toy jeeps and wine glasses in the household. In 2002, scientists at the Media Lab were already involved in printing semiconductors, transistors, and other electronic devices as if they were made out of paper. Simple three-dimensional objects have already been printed as well, with more complicated structures just around the corner. In 2002 – 2010, scientists contemplat the environmental upsides and downsides of personal fabrication. On the one hand, the technology could save energy by reducing energy expenditures involved in transporting a product to its point of use. On the other, three-dimensional printing could inundate society with objects, in the same way the "paperless office" is in reality saturated with more paper than ever. Scientists eventually find a way to make the personal fabricator environmentally feasible through equipping it with a "defabricator" that breaks objects down to their constituent materials.”

Scenario Four: The Future of Remote Sensing. (Phrased within the context of a scenario.) “In 2010, if one looks into the digital world, the digital world is looking right back at you. Advances in remote sensing give computer networks the eyes and ears they need to observe their physical surroundings. Sensors detect physical changes in pressure, temperature, light, sound, or chemical concentrations and then send a signal to a computer that does something in response. Billions of these devices form rich sensory networks linked to digital backbones that put the environment itself online. Dense arrays of networked sensors extract as much "information per unit volume," about the environment as possible. In the area of smart dust, much of the research driving small, inexpensive sensors is found in the area of MEMS, short for microelectromechanical systems. Scientists working with MEMS create tiny electronic features from silicon, some of them smaller than a red blood cell. MEMS extends to sensor design as well. “Smart dust" is designed to be so small it literally floats in the air. These minute devices are self-powered and contain tiny on-board sensors and a computer on a scale of just five square millimeters -- roughly the size of an aspirin tablet. In 2001 it becomes possible to reduce their size to a single millimeter and to airborne dust-like dimensions by 2005. The idea is to use them by the thousands as interconnected networks that communicate with each other. Smart dust "motes" sprinkled out of airplanes monitoring the atmosphere or hovering in the dark recesses of factory stacks monitoring pollution, or used in farms to measure soil chemistry and pesticide levels. In 2002, it is possible to pack the motes with the computing power of the first Intel computer chip -- just 200 microns long (one micron = one millionth of a meter) -- for about 10 cents. In 2010, continuing advances in MEMS push the price down below a penny.”

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Blueprint to the Digital Economy: Creating Wealth in the Era of E-Business. Author: Don Tapscott, Alex Lowry, and David Ticoll 1998 McGraw-Hill.

This book took the combined labors of three editors and various expert authors drawn from academia, research and corporate leadership. The 20 essays focus on industrial transformation, new rules for competing in the e-age, the computer- based network model and changes in government structure and policy in a networked world . Major trends in digital computing: 1) more changes coming as computers combine with information technology; the “N-Gen” – those who ranged from two to 22 years old in 1999 will play an increasingly critical role in e-commerce; 2) new rules for competition are emerging – increasingly, companies are becoming learning rather than knowing organizations; more focus on corporate creation of new markets and industries instead of simply improving operations; 3) industries are transforming, such as, for example Boeing moving beyond the aircraft industry to the software industry and plblishing is increasingly moving operations into online servers; 4) business is increasingly depending upon information technology; inter-networks with customers, suppliers, distributers, channel partners and workers in remote areas is growing; 5) e-business is transforming the relationship between business and government—increasingly, transactions occur in intangible cyberspace rather than in geographic or national space.

Scenario of the E-Business Community (EBC): In 2010, networks and e-networks define the rules of competition. New “value propositions” are drawn and on a continual basis as networks inter-connect small and large players. Information becomes more transparent; considered by 2010 a civil virtue, but the transparency of information foils attempts at traditional competitive intelligence (CI) to discern a competetor’s next conceptual “value proposition” or approaches to the market. In this world, new “value propostions” quickly transpose concept-to- word-of-mouth and finally, to implementation at an accellerated rate. Traditional CI cannot keep up the knowledge of the “corporate “Jonses” within an industry. The world of E-business has become similar to the wonder of moth-like activity, where CEOs are no longer able to conduct traditional environmental scanning techniques to “see” what their competitors are doing; rather, like moths, they can only “sense” competitors’s next moves, not knowing fully if the current competitor is really an ally or foe? In the world of the EBC, there is endless restructuring – and in some cases, “creative destruction”-to-consruction- re-construction of industries. Mass-customization is no longer as effective a decade before. Firms must also provide value-added services on a much more individualized basis, more rapidly. Early market entry is fragile: the key to survival is good management in the near-term, and if managed correctly, the medium term. If an e-business is really lucky, it will survive in the long term. Supply chains break down rapidly so that the birdsong of “disintermediation” or “re-intermediation” continues to empower the end-user and consumer. The new digital world creates an addendum to a plethora of new types of value propositions – more specialized units become better at responding to specific customer needs (in 2002, some called it “disaggregation and specialization”). EBC unfolds to birth a typology of four cluster-types of e-business by 2010 (today, we are seeing these emerge): open markets, aggregation markets, value chains, and alliances. In this uncertain world, a new company survives because long-range planning is drawn and re-drawn in excruciating detail even before the first page of a business plan “hits the draftboard”. Companies typically plan scenarios on matrices of possibilities and factors so as to envision alternative futures and prepare a multiplicity of planning so that successful trajectories within the changing business environment can be more readily perceived. This is the world of “organizational plasticity” where survival means innovation, mastering relationships, and business design. It is a world of knowledge in which knowledge mediates the law of increasing rather than diminishing returns. The future of a company begins with self-identity. Unlike a human being growing into a self-identy by puberty, a company by 2010 will have to define exactly what that identiy is, why, and what it will become. In addition, companies will have to plan exit strategies before the first day the doors open for businesss. The old “multi-divisional firm (M-Form organization) gives way to the E-form (ecosystem) form – totally focused on value proposition, markets, and potential markets within ecosystems. The term, “discontinuous change” in 2002, was at that time, only familiar in MBA programs. By 2010, it becomes the new catch-phrase at the office water cooler. Instead of discussing matters of gossip, employees discuss matters of strategy and “discontiuous change” on a daily basis’; and this also includes the janitor.

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The Future of Libraries to 2020. Digital Thinking Network (DTN); headed by Daniel Erasmus and Niall Murphy.
The DTN is dedicated to the networking of individuals and organizations considering the depth and magnitude of the changes that Information Technology brings to the world.

The story: Here she was, walking down the street: blonde and beautiful. And, since they had met last Saturday on the beach, Fronso also knew that she was quite bright. He had taken a day off from his MBA studies in Rotterdam, occupied a small square on a crowded beach outside The Hague, and become involved in a conversation with his new “neighbors” – a Dutch guy and this blond beauty. Soon the conversation focused on one of the woman’s prime interests: the cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sandy dunes. The Dutch guy could keep up in the conversation, but Fronso hastily excused himself, so as not to show his ignorance. What a disaster! He knew he would only get one more chance to talk to her, but this time he had to be prepared- no matter what it took. Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes! How in the world could he develop insights in such a subject within a reasonable time? While walking back to his room, Fronso thought about his options…

Scenario One: Revenues From Bricks and Clicks. Key Issues: people pay membership fee to get free access to copyrighted material; highly trained employees help members to locate and retrieve the desired content; direct physical interaction among users and between users and employees is important; publishers allow the use of their copyrighted material in these facilities. “The internet research didn’t yield much. Yes, he used the most advanced search engines, and even sent out search agents to look for the desired content. No results, except the “South-Holland Rose Club” with a home-page in Dutch. Amazon.com didn’t yield any hits, and neither did the online search of the US or the Dutch National Library. Seven years ago the US National Library completed digitizing all its books and provided full online access. The National Libraries of most European Countries announced unlimited online access in the following two years. In the same year (2015) the last Dutch public library in downtown Amersfoort was closed. If the Mayor’s wife hadn’t worked there it would have been closed years sooner. The public libraries with short opening hours and old employees did not serve the needs of a quickly changing world anymore. Research was undertaken faster online from home, all magazines had their online-versions and many of them were even distributed online. People would print individual pages on high-quality double-page printers or view them on portable e-screens. Furthermore, copyrighted material could not be printed but viewed for five days before it deleted itself.

In general, however, copyrights were not an issue anymore. Yes, the best-selling authors were still publishing hard-copy books with copyrights, though because of their sheer quantities, production of these books was cheap. This served the mass market. At the low volume end of the market, a high-end publishing had emerged with exclusive limited-edition books that were considered art-pieces for their beauty and craftsmanship. Most other authors published directly online and distributed their content freely or for a marginal download fee. In the past their salaries had been so meager that they couldn’t even pay their rent, and a book’s revenue was eaten up by the high charges for low-volume publishing and the overheads of the publishing houses. Now many authors were sponsored directly by companies or wealthy individuals, either for cultural reasons or to be associated with their success. The same picture had transpired in the academic publishing scene: few bestsellers were published as hardcopies, the rest was published online and for free or a marginal fee. Small editions had made them prohibitively expensive and by the time a book was published, its content was often outdated. Why bother with a hard-copy publication? The fame from on-line publishing made many publications more beneficial, especially for the high feedback they received and which could be worked into the next edition.

Back to the Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes. Nothing in the English-speaking world. The Dutch National Library didn’t contain anything, and besides, Fronso didn’t speak Dutch. That meant there was only one more place he could turn to: Ogogo’s. This international chain had opened its first Dutch location in Amsterdam three years ago and due to its huge success shortly thereafter in Rotterdam. Membership at Ogogo’s had quite a price, but people were happy to pay it. Ogogo’s were places to meet in a quiet atmosphere with other members, enjoy the exclusive book collection in comfortable chaise lounges or discuss the latest publications. And of course: they were places to research. Over the years the Internet had automated everything that could be automated. By doing so the profession of the librarian who catalogued books and searched databases had become obsolete.

At the same time the profession of the “Accessors” arose: highly trained and highly paid people who located content where search-engines failed. They knew which databases existed, how to program search agents, or how to find documents in foreign languages and translate them. Ogogo’s in Rotterdam employed three Accessors per shift, who helped people with their research. It is not surprising that more than half of Ogogo’s revenue came from corporations who paid a membership both as an added benefit for their employees, as well as to give them access to Ogogo’s knowledge network (databases & Accessors). In addition members could log on from the Internet to Ogogo’s global proprietary knowledge network, which offered unlimited access to proprietary content providers. The typical Ogogo’s member had money, was well educated, but had no time to waste.

Ogogo’s parent company had developed an additional revenue stream by establishing OrgLib, which was running the libraries of universities. Just as caterers ran a university’s canteen, libraries were run by OrgLib or its competitors. But these libraries were usually understaffed and often limited to the academic universe. Fronso didn’t have time to stand in line, so he signed up for a one-day trial membership at Ogogo’s in downtown Rotterdam. Five minutes after he approached an Accessor with his question the man had located a Dutch book, which contained a chapter on the issue. Within seconds the translation engine transferred it into English. While Fronso waited eagerly for the printout the Accessor stopped a young for woman who walked by. “Hey aren’t you studying sociology? This young man has a very particular interest…” The next thing Fronso knew was that he was sitting with her and a cup of tea as she discussed the habits of the population in the southern Netherlands. Half an hour later he had forgotten about Cultural habits of native Dutch Rose-gardening in sand dunes and his blond passion. He was going out for dinner with the sociologist (and became an Ogogo’s member).”

Scenario Two: Money In the Cyber World – Profitable OnLine Libraries Key issues: technologies track usage of copyright material; no physical libraries anymore; everything that can be, has been automated; librarians replaced by intelligent agents/discussion forums; the majority of authors continue to publish for direct remuneration. “His first thought was: where could I find a book on such a specific subject? Local libraries had closed their doors about 5 years ago, because content was abundant, they were not agile enough to keep the pace with the increasing amount of available information, and they couldn’t handle the increased competition of professional online libraries. These libraries offered the latest content in a highly user friendly manner. Initially trying to build their own internal networks and to keep the control over the materials available, traditional libraries had undergone a phase of enormous transformations. These were due to the profusion of new possibilities of document-delivery, non-uniformity of interfaces, ever-changing search engines and the sheer range of technical skills required in the work place. Libraries and information service staff had encountered a lot of difficulties in keeping up with the pace of change. Not so online content providers, which provided (for a small monthly fee) highly efficient access to all kinds of content: books, magazines, music, videos, proprietary on-line databases, search agents. And as these services were available around the clock, people were happy to pay for them. The final push came when most governments stopped subsidizing existing libraries. Instead, Governments invested to make their national libraries available online. By now, only very old books could be found in traditional libraries, and regardless, these were already digitalized and also available on-line. Ironically, Fronso’s uncle was the last Executive Director of the Guttenberg Project. The beginning of Project Gutenberg was 50 years ago, when Michael Hart was given an operator's account containing $100,000,000 of computer time by the operators of the Xerox Sigma V mainframe at the Materials Research Lab at the University of Illinois. By that time more computer time was available than people able to use computers. He realized that the greatest value created by computers would not be computing, but would be the storage, retrieval, and searching of what was stored in the libraries. The Beginning of the Gutenberg Philosophy, the premise on which Michael Hart based Project Gutenberg was that anything that can be entered into a computer can be reproduced indefinitely. The concept of Replicator Technology was simple: once a book or any other item (including pictures, sounds, and even 3-D items can be stored in a computer), then any number of copies can and will be available. Everyone in the world, or even not in this world (given satellite transmission) can have a copy of a book that has been entered into a computer. The physical libraries now only preserve the history and thoughts of mankind throughout the centuries; one cannot borrow a book anymore. People still collect books, and the selection of books was easy through electronic online catalogues. On-line bookstores delivered books within one day, and all libraries on-line were also offering this service as an added value. Selected chapters could be read on screen, or on PDA, or one could order an e-book. Did Fronso ever hear somebody talking about his research topic? Not that he remembered! So the only solution left: the Internet! The school offered all students a subscription to the WWLibrary.com. That was very useful and also very common among business schools. Based on credits per individual, institutions could enrich their customers’ experience, or their employees’ performance by offering them this kind of support. Very handy, but his credit offered by the school is almost zero, and he hasn’t finalized the research for other class assignments. He could start searching for free information available, but whatever was for free was not organized and the research was very difficult. Since technologies have been developed which allowed the authors to track and limit usage to their copyrighted material, everything was made available on-line, although everybody had to pay for it. Low costs, high speed and availability of electronic publishing technologies were the factors that encouraged authors to publish directly on-line, and, as such, digital libraries were created automatically. Many authors, although not the majority, continued to publish for direct remuneration. Technology allowed them to choose the web-libraries they wanted to be present in, and also to get the money transferred directly to their accounts. Payments were made on-line safely, and people had become used to this method. Everything that could be automated has been automated. Schools, businesses, social and educational communities, were paying subscription and usage rights for different digital libraries. There was a burst in the development of digital libraries when software agents were perfected, representing a piece of software having both the ability to perform a search and to exercise preferences over how this search is performed. Thus, agents now have the ability to reason about how they use their resources. In other words, an agent doesn’t have to fulfill every request for service, only those consistent with its preferences. A traditional computer program did not have this reasoning ability. Moreover, since the agents were autonomous, they can and must negotiate with other agents to gain access to other resources or capabilities. The process of negotiation often consists of a "conversation sequence", where multiple messages are exchanged according to some prescribed protocol, which itself can be negotiated. Therefore intelligent agents, in some cases discussion forums, and online book communities, which ensure access and awareness, have replaced librarians. “Programming of Intelligent Agents” was Fronso’s favorite topic in the university. He knew how easy his life would be if he just had some more creditsbut he couldn’t wait until the credits for the next month were charged to his account. He entered Concordia, the Internet Café next door, and while waiting for his hot chocolate, typed in: “Desperate help needed: Cultural habits of Dutch Rose-Gardening in Sand Dunes - Anybody there?….” Luckily, somebody replied quickly… Danae. The conversation continued over the course of four more hot chocolates. After three hours of discussions Fronso discovered that Danae was living in Amsterdam, and they decided to continue the conversation over dinner. Meeting point: DTN Building. Recognition sign: Danae’s red cap. Time: one hour later. Fronso arrives, and, surprise! There was only one person wearing a red cap in front of the DTN building, and the cap was covering beautiful, long, brown hair that flowed in the evening’s wind…”

Scenario Three: Downloads. Key Issues: physical location fills an important function for meeting, socialising, discussing; physical books are still important; new search engines; universal access; functional fragmentation. “His first thought was to go online to search and download a book from Boogle, the worldwide library he had used few years ago during his undergraduate studies. But the Boogle website displayed a message that the company was under investigation by the European Community’s Justice Minister. Fronso remembered the story he had read in the Financial Times a few weeks agoexplaing the turbulent history of e-libraries around the globe. In 2004 a consortium of private venture capitalists had launched the first e-library which had allowed the downloading of entire books. The concept was based on enabling the download of thousands of old books for free and the download of new books for a small fee. Within a couple of months the idea became a global success and other private and public libraries went on-line. Search engines and translation tools were highly developed and the daily number of downloads surpassed 1 million. But after the initial success, the magic formula started to falter. Criminal elements had launched viruses that changed not only the content of books but also cracked the code that guaranteed the payment of a single copy of recently launched books. Suddenly thousands of authors demanded the exclusion of their publication from e-libraries. E-libraries tried to resist but after a group of novel authors went to court demanding millions in non-paid copyrights all e-libraries were immediately closed until a legal agreement could be reached. Fronso’s second option waited at the square in front of his building, a medium-sized library that he had used when he had arrived in town and wanted to learn Dutch. When he entered the library he saw dozens of people drinking coffee and discussing stories in cafeterias inside the library. There were three different cafeterias (and two under construction): one with Italian style coffee, another with Indonesian desserts and a third with Diet juices. Ten years ago, after years of declining public interest, libraries started to incorporate small shops and cafes to provide a enjoyable atmosphere for social contacts. Studies had predicted that with this “social entertainment atmosphere” the frequentation of libraries could be increased by 400%, compared with traditional ones. Fronso also remembered the first time he visited that place. It was his second month in Rotterdam and he had decided to try to read a book in Dutch. Looking for the section of books for kids, he had asked a nice old woman who was there with her 9-year-old grandson for some help. As all Dutch, she spoke some English and recommended him a 45-page book: “New Adventures of Peter Pan”, which she said she had already read to her two sons and five grandchildren. He had also used one of the recent developments of Dutch libraries: interest related groups that met weekly in the library to chat about specific issues, and get to know people with same interests. He had Italian friends who used to frequent one of these groups in Venice and he could increasngly see how people were falling in love through this medium and getting married. This time Fronso’s task was more complicated. He really needed to find a good book or article or video about Dutch gardening in dunes because his “pretend-to-be-girlfriend” had said that she loved the subject. From the school he tried to find the book on the Internet. He found the book, but just for sale, and because his objective with the girl had an horizon of no more than 6 weeks (his average time with each girlfriend!) he did not want to invest to much money on it. Prices of book were rising, not only due to the expenses of producing small runs of exclusive editions but also because the cost of paper was increasing due to environmental concerns in developing countries. At the entrance of the library sat the Internet terminals. He stopped and typed “dunes+flowers+gardening”. The computer posed some questions to refine the search. Fronso answered speaking and the voice-recognition terminal had a 30 seconds chat with Fronso. Finally he asked for the option “books in this library”. Immediately the Internet terminal connected to the central database Dutch Library System, where the government already spent millions to catalog all books in the Netherlands in just one database. From this, it found not only books in this library, but also presented links to libraries in Rotterdam that had the book.

As there were five different recommendations from the software, he printed the recommendation and went for help with the librarian. The librarian was a nice Dutch-Spanish girl who had just finished her studies in Latin Literature. She was working part-time in the library and part time cataloguing Latin books in the search engine of the Dutch Library System. They got into a conversation because she mentioned that her brother loved gardening and as a tech-nerd he bought a ScreenBook and paid for a subscription of all flower/gardening books available online. Every week he used to downloaded one or two books and articles in his ScreenBook. When he offered it to his sister, she did not like it, because after fifteen minutes her eyes started to be irritated and she realized that nothing could match a traditional print paper version. She had also heard that last week the company web site was shut down because of rumors concerning legal problems. After a 30-minute conversation with the young librarian Fronso totally forgot about flowers, gardening, and dunes. He was going out for dinner with the librarian….”

Scenario Four: Cyberization of the Traditional Model. Key Issues: no physical libraries – only online databases; everyone has free access to internet; copyrighted information universally available on-line; search and translation technologies plus flexible software architectures people can download, but not print or copy. “Twenty years ago, in 2001, he could have asked that nice old man who used to work as a librarian, and knew every book on the shelves of the library at the corner of his street. Today, the library is no more. All his experience has been translated into links to other information sources and all the books have been transformed in digital files. Libraries of the world have been converted into one huge database, and every citizen has free Internet access. True, the search technologies allowed everybody to have instant on-line access at books, publications and magazines, and they can translate anything that is available in cyberspace, but how long would it take for him to find this particular book? One option would be to try the Dutch National Library site, the only place where, for no cost, he could type the precious key words in the search engine, though would he find the right book in time? As Government services had not improved much in the last decades, and although all countries now subsidized their own National Online Library, it was for education purposes only. Sometimes you may find thousands of files with the same name, since flexible software had been created to support the organization of on-line content added daily by millions of people. Nowadays the majority of authors accept the concept of making their work available online without receiving direct payment. They believe that free viewing both increases awareness and encourages people to buy the book or copy the file and pay for it. Unlike their predecessors, they do not charge the copyright to the Government, and, in addition, it is an honor to have their names listed in the Library Catalogue. This system continues to work, since a person can download the file from the library but cannot print or copy it, as there is technology available that ensures protection against digital copying.

Another option for him would be to spend a fortune by asking the CIA (Certified Intelligent Agent) to track the right material in less than one second. To achieve a good result, Fronso must indicate to the CIA his area of interest. This is easy, since the Agent can find even the unexpressed user’s needs by association between the movement of the person’s eyes on the computer screen and the display of different content. Fronso is still thinking. After all, he is a poor student and cannot afford the expensive luxury of searching for knowledge. On the other hand, Fronso is under extreme time pressure, and Government services are not trustworthy enough. So, he decides to use the competent CIA instead of the free service, and starts browsing images of dunes covered with roses across the globe. After several seconds, Fronso stops and asks the CIA to do the search, hoping that his deposit payment will be enough for the agent to do the job. It does worry him though that these CIA’s can refuse a search request at any time they decide to do so, which seems to make the moniker of “intelligent” a little ironical! Fronso also hopes his deposit will give him adequate negotiation powers against other agents performing similar requests. “Search result found” is the message displayed on Fronso’s flexible screen. “Incredible”, thinks Fronso, “this agent is worth it, he found my book”! Fronso opens the message, and the book is there, called “Conspiracy of Perfumes in the Dutch Sands”, together with a message from the author. The author is also a Dutch women who says…she wants to meet him this evening? Fronso does not know what to do. He must read the book by tomorrow but also he could go to the meeting and ask this old lady a couple of questions about roses. Yes, let’s do that, it will help him prepare better for the conversation with the blonde and beautiful woman from the beach. After half an hour, Fronso arrives at the Concorde Club, and waits for the old lady to appear. He gets a message saying that his digital photo has already been delivered to the author, so she will easily recognize him. “Hello, nice to meet you!” Fronso turns his head and…the blonde and beautiful woman is here, she is the author of the book! After all, it seems that the CIA is indeed an intelligent agent….”

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New Drivers and Diverging Trends: Petroleum Products Markets to 2020. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) – an independent firm providing insight into the energy future. Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman, Joseph Stanslaw, CERA president and CEO. Multiclient study. For more information please contact Kathleen Doherty at +1-617-498-9194.

Long term challenges and significant events may lead to opportunities and threats in the power and gas industry to 2020. Key drivers include: environmental pressures, new end-user technologies, and changing demographics. These key drivers and forces were assessed through a series of workshops that led to a set of four scenarios to 2010. The next series of workshops over the next several months will extend the scenarios to 2020. Each scenario is based on geopolitical and industry building blocks and were described in terms of the international economy, environmental issues, an assessment of energy and oil demand, regional refined product supply and demand, crude oil supply, crude oil price outlook. A step-by-step entrain of events were described for each preliminary scenario to 2010. Future CERO workshops will flesh-out the scenarios to 2020 in full narrative form by mid-year 2002. This annotation will include the full scenarios in the State of the Future, 2003 edition. Scenario One: Kudzu Competition. 1995: Case-by-case wheeling; 1997: FCRC success rule; 2000: regional experiment; 2002 – 2010: Court order, corporate seperation, utility initiated write-offs, functioning pooled markets, investment minimized, focus on cheap upgrades, horozontal consolidation, second anti-trust breakup, rise of service firms. Scenario Two: Caught in the Muddle: 1995: Special Discounts, 1997: FCRC success rule, 2000: Regional experiment, 2002- 2010: crisis, sales of best assets, multiple write offs, barrier to exit, major consolidations, utility renaissance, IP PS on the bubble. Scenario Three: Virtual Competition: 1995: Wholesale competition, 1997: slow depreciation, 2000: erosion of customer base, 2002-2010: growing unit costs, public sentiment shifts, utility role preserved, declining price ceilings imposed, outsourcing, IP P renaissance. Scenario Four: Green Briar Path. 1995: wholesale competition 1997: rules delayed by CIS, 2000: Ozone Episodes, Fine particulate rules, 2002-2010: C02 concerns, presidential campaign issue, energy-environment set, tougher caps, energy issues, energy taxes, energy efficiency, coal retreat, investment boom, outsource bid tests.

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The Age of Miracle and Wonder. Author: Robert E Sawyer Part of the “Canadian Authors on 2000” series commissioned for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Web site.

In 1961, Arthur C. Clarke, the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey, coined the term, “Clarke’s Law,” which says: “Any sufficiently advanced technololgy is indistiguishable from magic.” Clarke’s writing had reflected thousands of years into the future, yet, today’s technology and current breakthroughs in innovation and technology are increasing exponentially, almost “magically”. 90% of all scientific advances were made in the 20th century alone; 10% since the beginning of written history. Mr. Sawyer writes three scenarios that discuss the future of nanotechnology to the year 2020; the future of artificial intelligence to the year 3000; and lastly, a scenario about the future of articifical intelligence and food production.
Scenario of Nanotechnology: “The world of A.D. 2020 will be as incomprehensible to us as our world of today would have been to Queen Victoria during the last year of her reign. Consider nanotechnology, which is probably just around the corner. It will allow us to build things up atom by atom. You want a five-course dinner? A brick of platinum? A new kidney? Claudia Schiffer? No problem. We can build it for you. At the most advanced levels, nanotechnology will tear down and build up atoms from constituent parts: the differences between a pile of old newspapers and gold-and-diamond jewelry are only in how the protons, neutrons, and electrons are arranged. Sophisticated nanotech gives you the alchemist's dream of transmutation; it gives everyone the Midas touch — and it means there is no longer any such thing as a scarce resource. Food, fuel, drinking water, clean air — whatever you want, in whatever quantity you want it, all free for the asking. More: since nanotechnological machines will be able to make anything — including unlimited copies of themselves — the devices that perform this magic become essentially free of cost. Material needs disappear. But having all your material needs taken care of does you no good if you're dead. No problem: if you manage to hold on until A.D. 2020 — another twenty years — it's likely that you will never die. We already know what causes cells to age and cease to function; reversing the process will be one of the countless benefits of the Human Genome Project, currently nearing completion. Almost everyone born on this planet after 1950 will live to see not just the twenty-first century, but the twenty-second, and perhaps the twenty-third as well. We also will be quite different from what we were; we will have entered the trans-human era.”

Scenario: Artificial Intelligence by the Year 3000: “Within a century, it will be possible to scan a human mind and reproduce it inside a machine. Regardless of whether our minds are just very sophisticated analog computers, or whether they have a quantum-mechanical element (as Roger Penrose proposes), we will nonetheless be able to duplicate them artificially. Already, at the close of the second millennium, a transhumanist movement has begun; Christopher Dewdney is the principal Canadian spokesperson for it. This movement holds that uploading our consciousness into machines is desirable, since that will free us from biological aging and death. On the other hand (a decidedly biological metaphor), there is more to being human than just the networks of synapses in our brains; clearly, much of what we are is tied in intimately with our bodies. We may find that uploaded humans are not happy — indeed, are incapable of happiness or any emotion. Still, by the year 3000, there will doubtless be millions of uploaded people, including perhaps versions of some who are alive today. Indeed, religions might evolve around worshiping thousand-year-old computer-based avatars; with the acquired wisdom of a Methuselah, these entities might provide profound insights. Just as laws today are moving toward recognizing a woman's right to control her body and any separate sentience that may be contained within it, so too will the laws of the future recognize the right of humans to upload their consciousness and then dispose of the original biological versions of themselves; such eliminations will not be seen as suicides or murders, but rather as a natural, perfectly legal step, eliminating a no-longer-needed biological container and preserving the uniqueness of the individual. But there will also be other thinking machines, with a separate genesis: we will doubtless develop artificial intelligence within a century. A key question humanity will have to consider as it does so is what, if any, constraints will we build into AI? It may, in fact, be dangerous to build conscious machines that are more intelligent than we are; just as intelligence may be an emergent property of sufficiently complex systems, so too may ambition and desire be emergent properties of sufficiently intelligent systems. One possible scenario is that by the dawn of the fourth millennium, there will be no biological humans (or even any uploaded echoes of them) left; Homo sapiens may have been entirely supplanted by its AI creations.”
Artificial Intelligence and a Food Production Scenario: “A more appealing (at least to us) scenario would see humankind carefully crafting AIs (including many embodied as robots) who will take care of all the necessary work of food production, manufacturing, recycling, and so on, leaving us to pursue other things. Although we used to consider the mastery of chess to be the pinnacle of human intellectual achievement, we've had to concede that it is simply a mathematical problem, and even today's primitive computers can do it better than the most skilled human. But there are other realms — including art, philosophy, and scientific theorizing — that, because of their intuitive, nonlinear nature, we may always be better at than any machine. Our AI servants may free humanity at the dawn of the fourth millennium to concentrate on these areas.”

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Will That Be Cash or Cell Phone?; Wireless Payment Systems Might Mean Dialing In Your Own Wallet. Author: Katie Hafner (NYT) Late Edition – Final, Section G, Page 1, Column 1.

Cellular telephones are seen playing an increasingly important role in the future of e-commerce, or, m-commerce (mobile commerce). Users in the marketplace will typically be able to dial-in purchase information and confirmation. For example, a type of prototypical mobile payment system, PayPal.com, works like this: after opening an account on company's Web site, people can send money to one another via e-mail; once the money is sent, the amount is charged to credit card or bank account. Various scenarios like this, present the case for using process in making retail purchases. Richard Siber, analyst at Andersen Consulting, Boston, says while it will be years before m-commerce takes hold, but when it does, it will be bigger than e-commerce.

Scenario: M- Commerce a Cell Becomes a Powerful Tool. In 2010, M-commerce becomes widespread. It is bigger than e-commerce. In this world, it becomes common to stand in front of vending machines that respond to the dial of a phone number posted on the machine. The vending machine is equipped to transmit with the radio portion of a cell phone so that it can receive the call, or, with a transceiver that works with Bluetooth, a wireless connection that allows high-speed communication among devices within a short distance of one another. The machine then offers a menu. You choose a soda for $1.10 cents and enter a PIN – out comes the softdrink. Many other types of vending machines contain thumbprint recognition technology. In Finland, a complicated system for point-of-sale purchases with cell phones was being developed in 2002, and came to fruition a decade later. The financial services industry also increases ubiquitous systems in which cell phones connect with the various banking systems. Online financial services companies work with cell phones in the following way: “after opening an account on the company's Web site, people send money to one another via e-mail. The PayPal.com method calls for just an e-mail address (or eventually a phone number) to send, beam or dial-in a payment. Once the money is sent, the amount is charged to a credit card or bank account. The recipient retrieves the money by filling out a form attached to the payment, which in turn registers the recipient for the service. PayPal.com then credits a credit card, deposits money to a bank account or sends out a check. PayPal.com is especially popular for paying for merchandise on eBay and other online auction sites because it eliminates the need to send checks through the mail.” In 2002, the service had some 350,000 users and more than 10,000 new users sign up each day. This indicator is important, when considering the many uses and possibilities that cell phones will have in the future.

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The Future of Television – Internet Business, Organizations, and Networks. Digital Thinking Network (DTN), founded and funded by Niall Murphy and Daniel Erasmus.
The DTN website explores issues from the future of organization, the future of health, ideas, logistics, entertainment, etc.

The following four scenarios are based on multiple driving forces on a scenario matrix. For the future of television, the vertical axis shows the extremes of one device to many devices. The horozontal axis shows the extremes of few providers to many dividers.

Scenario One: Couch Potato (one device and few providers) “By 2020, newspaper headlines include: advertising driven the mass market; incremental innovation in TV sets; low rate of innovation, long product life cycle; Social/group activity; separation b/w TV and computer; pop-corn viewers. The winners in this world are big media conglomerates: i.e. CNN and vertical integration. The loosers are traditional TV manufacturers and small content providers. “Consumer in 2010: It is the end of a long working day, I'm laying on the couch, watching a TV show and it's time for a short break. Suddenly Cindy appears introducing the new make-up

collection of a famous brand ,you switch to another channel and here is Cindy one more time but now for a shampoo ad for the same brand. Mass advertisement is everywhere. I am a passive viewer just looking at my screen, having my bowl of pop-corn and thinking how the world behind the screen is just esthetically perfect.

TV manufacturer in 2010: TV is mainly present but it should follow the multiple international standards so to satisfy consumers worldwide. It should also increase efficient devices .TV is still a long product life cycle and manufacturer are taking advantages out of it.

Broadcaster in 2010: There is a big media conglomerates which determine the content of the TV, the consumer is just passive and is a follower.”

Scenario Two: Trapped in Paradise (many devices and few providers) “By 2020, newpaper headlines include: new product launched on the market: smell generator to enhance broadcast experience; Philips Electronics invests in hologram market; Cinema has hard time due to new in-house entertainment. The winners in this world are: big media conglomerates; software development companies; and display technology firms. The Loosers are: independent content providers; traditional TV manufacturers; movie theaters; the consumer

Consumer in 2010 It is Saturday 2 pm and dad decides to have some quality time with his children, after having worked the whole morning with his virtual company. Rather than going to the cinema, he switches on the house multi-mediasystem, and right in front of him he sees the 3D-hologram of Ted O'Gram, the famous showmaster of CMM, the multi-billion dollar media conglomerate. The children like this show, because they are able to answer online questions to the quizzes and, if they answer all the questions correctly, they will appear in the show for thousands of viewers. However, the show just finished and dad swaps by voice activation to another channel, also of CMM. This is a holiday magazine. Suddenly, a 3-D image of a tropical beach appears on the big screen on the wall and we hear the sound of the waves through the surround-sound system. Two palms are projected as holograms in the middle of the living room, to enhance the vacation experience. On a separate screen a computer image is projected with the prices and booking information on the holiday. A scrolling text appears on the big screen, which says that all hotels are equipped with CMM's entertainment.

TV manufacturer in 2010 TV manufacturers have had a difficult time to abandon the idea that the TV is a single device in the living room and compete now with a wide variety of new high tech companies in several nices of the display and entertainment market. To strengthen their position, traditional TV manufacturers formed alliances with the big media conglomerates in order to develop entertainment devices adapted to their needs. Rather than supplying TV screens, the traditional TV manufacturers are now in a wide variety of display technologies, such as projection screens, 3-D images and holograms. They have developed new standards of control and have invested a lot of money in software for control of devices and user-interfaces. The media conglomerates use the new technology to bombard the consumers with standard entertainment shows and lots of advertisement.

Broadcaster in 2010 The broadcasters have grown into multi-billion dollar conglomerates that have in house everything related to entertainment. The broadcasters have profitted from the availability of new technologies to enhance their shows, like big in-house screens, simultaneous projections, surround sound and video communication links. The broadcasters formed alliances with internet companies to have access to the web as well. The conglomerates try to attract as many consumers as possible, because they are paid from advertisements and on-line shopping.”

Scenario Three: Gadget (one device and many providers) “In this world, the concept of TV is unchanged. It is a stand-alone (unlinked), immobile, social gadget, used only to present audio-visual programming. It competes with other devices (internet, radio) to be the entertainment and information center of the home. Technical innovation has been incremental - there are more features, but there have been no great conceptual leaps. TV sets have advanced to the point where you can see several channels at the same time, perhaps by viewing from different angles (with audio distributed independently). Sources of information are extremely numerous - all connections into the home are exploited by various standards to reach the consumer, so you can get incoming signals through the cable, telephone, electricity, plumbing, and satellite providers. The competition is intense between info sources - most media advertising is used to direct the consumer toward a provider, where he can choose a subscription to accept any level of consumer advertising and content - based on price. Advertisers pay high fees, since they can reach highly targeted audiences. Headlines: AOL Buys Philips, making Time-Warner channels always appear first, whenever the set is turned on. You can reset this feature as easily as you used to program the VCR, by manipulating the small levers on the back underside of the TV set. However, VCR's are today very easy to program - you just talk to them; most popular TV software, third year in a row: Microsoft's Tuner Helper, to try to make the most of your 75000 possible channels; Merde Inc. IPOs on Wall Street, promising delivery of digital signal through septic lines. The winners are: TV manufacturers that can design (ex. flat panel, low energy, creative shapes, more potential locations), since tech know-how is widespread and well understood. Value-added comes from creativity and marketing; sources that can establish a strong brand name among middle-aged people, as the population is aging. They can then rely on subscriber revenue, rather than advertising; search engines, to make sense of the vast streams of information available; engineering firms that manufacture equipment to receive signals on; different standards. The loosers are: companies that spent a lot of money to acquire distribution capacity must spend still further amounts to attract viewers, who have unlimited choice; those who invested a lot in the combination technology of computer/TV, since people have decided that the computer is a separate device for information, not entertainment; the big media conglomerates, who finally gave up the battle to squash competition when the electric companies perfected their signal transmission technology.

Consumer: bombarded with adverts by sources of info: channels, distributors, and packagers; attracted by alternative sources of info, e.g. internet, WAP, and radio; family watches (different programs) together; all are familiar with using technology. The family gathers around the TV set in the den after dinner. Since the size of the family has gradually been growing smaller, it now includes only the parents and their single daughter. Dad chose to subscribe to the electric company's TV menu. Even though the total number of available channels does not match ABC's, there is a good variety of family programs. Moreover, it comes with a discount on the monthly electric bill, which has been growing ever more expensive. The last oil shock, in 2005, resulted in sustained higher prices. With all the other electronic equipment and the charger for the electric car, electricity is now the family's second-biggest monthly bill. The daughter is not too upset though, since she can tune into the latest sites on the internet from her room, and her friends don't watch much TV anyway. How can anyone watch the same program for 30 minutes?

TV Manufacturer: outsources all manufacturing; concentration on style, design, features, sorting capabilities, comfort, screen characteristics; interests are not in line with those of the broadcast industry. The manufacturer just got back from a trip to Jakarta, having taken a trip to try to spot the emerging trends in TV designs favored by the youth there. Indonesia has become one of the best places to prospect for new styles, as its popularity as a manufacturing site led nearly all the world's production to locate there in the early 2000's. The country's economic recovery has allowed the city culture to blossom, and the abundance of electronic parts has been used by artists to make up fanciful devices. The manufacturer is hoping to find a way to attract American kids, who have largely abandoned TV. He is looking for a complement to his TV lines for middle-aged Americans, which is a mature, commodity market. The only way to make money these days is to catch a fad, and profit for a short time before the style is copied. His last big product was the Tub-a -Telly, designed to run in the shower and catch the signals that came through the water lines. Sadly, the fad died when the free channels were swamped with advertising.

Broadcaster: has to spend heavily to advertise his channel, since it is very easy to send out a signal these days. The competition covers the spectrum from the traditional media conglomerates to the independents and individuals; with the improvements in digital technology, it is now possible for a relatively small operator to transmit nearly any program ever made, at any time of day or night; the best advantage is that you now have a very good idea of who watches your channel, and can target ads very specifically. Those who choose to buy subscription TV generally do not like to see many ads, but it is possible to include subtle ones. Advertisers pay top dollar; with advertisers desperate for eyeballs, they now have less room to complain about programming choices. Broadcasters have room to compete against the freewheeling content of the independents.

The broadcast executive has to get an early start this morning, because the auction of 2007's top rated show will be held on the net at 6 AM in Hawaii, where he lives. So much of his job can be done digitally now; there was just no reason to stay in NY or LA. He can set up all the required programming from home, just call up the digital files onto his transmitter. The advances in encryption have eliminated the piracy problems from the Chinese broadcasters - lucky for him, since it is so hard to determine the location of a broadcast source today. Even with the political freedoms that swept China when the information barriers become completely useless, it is still hard to get access to the court system there, and China is still inward-looking. The executive hopes that his deal with the Chinese government to provide premium subscription service to the big cities will finally close - just think, another 2 billion eyeballs.”

Scenario Four: Magic Kingdom. Key Elements: The end of TV as we know it. No longer in the tube, TV has disappeared in the sea of appliances; everything revolves around the individual/consumer who gets what he wants on whatever devices he wants; all transactions are electronic and bot controlled (VISA is the biggest financial institution on the planet) : everything is digital including houses, clothing, cars, road signs…You can connect everything with everything; content is king - it is also everywhere… they are over a million channels from which to chose from if you include the Web and cable; nation-states exist more and more formally. Networks of all kind strive. And , for those who dream the future, they see the birth of Corporate-Nations, each with their own compound, population, architecture, benefits, style and so forth; hackers have migrated into the "Walled City". No one knows where they are; people still eat pizza.

Scenario: “At 7:30 p.m. Bill leaves his office and heads home. Although his car is wired to the web and could find the best way to get home according to the current traffic situation, Bill has turned the device off. As a matter of fact, he has also turned the sensory-videos of his auto-run off. Tonight, he just wants to drive home and hear classical music. He tells his car what he wants to listen to (a Bach Fugue) and seconds afterwards it downloads a tune onto the hard drive of his top-of-the-line surround sound system. Bill works for Pegasus, an independent interactive content production house based in San Martha California. He is 32 and does not fear death. Soon, he enters his (short) driveway. He had wanted to be alone but has forgotten to turn his garage off, so as he comes in front of its doors he sees a summary of what is on for him tonight (pasta al Pesto, Charles Schwab's latest advice on his portfolio, and about 10 shows that his bot - Rufus - has selected for him). His wife opens the front door and smiles. For a second, he dreams that his eye implant allows him to zoom in on her mouth, which he adores. His kids are there too, although Myriam is in her room downloading some new backgrounds for her up-coming web meeting. Kids just love to change backgrounds and excel at building weird and uncanny places. Bill is proud of Myriam. She is lovely and very good with imaging, which leads him to believe that she will one day work with him.

As he walks into his living room, he sees the whole wall lit up with what seems to be a video game. It is in Japanese but he can always switch the programme back to English. All his house appliances have an IP address and can keep him informed about almost anything (temperature, government foreign policy, the latest mud fest). He is proud of his home server : the latest model of Terra Nova Linux microsystems. It simply never runs out of gas nor does it ever fail him. In fact, software firms's revenues (like his) depend on the number of simultaneous downloads from regional WAN. Jinny has won over Windows and so has open source code. Fiber optics run like river capillaries everywhere.

The Great Digital Amazon River. Bill sits down. His phone rings. He looks into its small LCD and sees the world. …. To be continued… perhaps… Headlines: RealNetworks buys Philips for 30 billion dollars. Software companies dominate the market and use their immense market cap to buy out manufacturers (2002); "The Mufta", a Pegasus Interactive Production, becomes first production to top 1 billion dollars in revenues. Broadband allows broadcast quality audio and video. Downlaoded on 5 continents on more than 20 000 mirror sites, "The Mufta" became the world best seller involving more than 20 million viewers/players. (2005). Winners: software development companies; cable, fibre optics, satellite operators; independent content producers; the consumer. Losers: traditional media conglomerate; traditional ad agencies.

Consumer 2010 The king of the zoo. The consumer is tracked, monitored, scanned, beamed, and, everybody-- everybody --competes for his attention. The consumer is submerged with brands, products, movies, sounds, widgets, snippets, gadgets, and more consumables. Like Aladdin, he merely has to wish to see it in front of him. But he has co-evolved with the system and benefits from the help of all kinds of bots, robots, e-bots, and nanobots (they clean beaches and arteries with the same remarkable resilience). Like an emperor whose empire extends into infinity, he relies on informers and chance to make his plays. Time reverts to a kind of medieval immanence where all happens synchronously, the spirit dwelling in interstices, artificial, unknowing and unknowable. Media is reduced to bits and pixels and constantly reshapes itself around an ever- growing number of devices at his whim. Even the act of paying is removed from his consciousness as his bots makes thousands of micro-payments per day on his behalf. In time, he forgets th