Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity
9.
Capacity to Decide
How can the capacity to decide be improved
as the nature of work and institutions change?
Many of the world’s decisionmaking processes are inefficient, slow,
and ill informed, especially when considering the new demands of increasing
complexity, globalization, and the acceleration of change. More-open systems,
democratization, and interactive media are involving more people in decisionmaking,
which further increases complexity—making continuous modifications of
decisions more likely than achieving closure. Fortunately, the world is moving
toward ubiquitous computing with collective intelligence for just-in-time knowledge
to inform decisions; unfortunately, decisionmaking culture can be slow to change.
Decision support software that lets people see how issues have alternative
positions and how each is supported or refuted by research has existed for years
but is rarely used. Such issues-based information software can make decisionmaking
more clear and transparent (see Figure 23 in Chapter 5). Rapid collection and
assessment of many judgments via on-line software can support timelier decision-making
(see Chapter 3). Judgmental information was most often the view of single individuals
or very small groups, but now decisionmaking benefits from the increasing use
of open systems that invite broad and transparent participation of groups of
experts and individuals from around the world.
Vast peer-reviewed data banks are being interconnected so that composites of
data from many sources can present the best facts available for a given decision.
Issue-tracking for decisionmaking is improving with Web 2.0 tools. More user-friendly,
powerful, and flexible simulation and modeling software will eventually find
its way into decisionmaking, as have spreadsheet software and search engines.
Advances in cognitive neuroscience and brain-computer interface technologies
should improve decision-support systems.
If Moore’s Law continues, within 25 years individual computers will have
the processing power of the human brain; hence, much decisionmaking can be automated,
just as the autonomous nervous system manages basic bodily decisions. Meanwhile,
too much time is wasted going through useless information. The number and intricacy
of choices seem to be growing beyond our abilities to analyze and make decisions.
Ubiquitous computing will increase the number of decisions per day, constantly
changing schedules and priorities. Decisionmaking will be increasingly augmented
by the integration of sensors imbedded in products, in buildings, and in living
bodies with a more intelligent Web and institutional and personal collective
intelligence software that helps us receive and respond to feedback for improving
decisions.
Self-organization of volunteers around the world via Web sites is increasing
transparency and creating new forms of decisionmaking. Today’s challenges
cannot be addressed by governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and intergovernmental
bodies acting alone; hence, transinstitutional decisionmaking has to be developed
and common platforms created for transinstitutional strategic decisionmaking
and implementation.
Training programs for decisionmakers should bring together research on why
irrational decisions are made, lessons of history, futures research methods,
forecasting, cognitive science, prediction markets, data reliability, utilization
of statistics, conventional decision support methods (e.g., PERT, cost/benefit,
etc.), collective intelligence systems, ethical considerations, goal seeking,
risk, the role of leadership, transparency, accountability, and participatory
decisionmaking with new decision support software, e-government, ways to identify
and better an organization’s improvement system, prioritization processes,
and collaborative decisionmaking with different institutions.
Challenge 9 will be addressed seriously when the State of the Future Index
or similar systems are used regularly in decisionmaking, when national corporate
law is modified to recognize transinstitutional organizations, and when at least
50 countries require elected officials to be trained in decisionmaking.
Regional Considerations
Africa: Microsoft is collaborating
to help e-government systems to improve transparency and decisionmaking and to
reduce corruption. Cape Verde’s e-government includes e-voting, which tallies
votes within minutes of poll closings, which avoids conflicts about results. A
recent mining boom in Africa will not benefit the local population unless the
investment is accompanied with good governance. How can the cultural advantages
of extended families be kept while making political and economic decisions more
objective and less corrupt? The New Partnership for Africa’s Development
has begun improving collaborative decisionmaking. African civil society needs
development to pressure for freedom of the press, accountability, and transparency
of government. If the brain drain cannot be reversed, expatriates should be connected
to the development processes back home through Internet systems. Informal decentralized
networks of allied political groups within and across boarders are becoming tremendously
empowered by mobile communication devices and online social networking sites.
Asia and Oceania: Synergies of Asian
spirituality and collectivist culture with more linear, continuous, and individualistic
western decisionmaking systems could produce new decisionmaking philosophies.
South Korea is exploring collective intelligence capabilities.
Europe: As of May 2008, there were
2,379 multilateral treaties and agreements affecting decisionmaking around the
world; Europe is a major contributor to these, which is leading to “reporting
fatigue.” Bureaucratic complexity, lack of transparency, and proliferation
of decision heads threatens clear decisionmaking in the EU. Tensions between the
EU and its member governments and among ethnic groups are making decisionmaking
difficult. A global observatory and advanced information technology may facilitate
public participation in direct democracy.
Latin America: Data for decisionmaking
are weak in the region due to lack of capacity. In addition to improved efficiency
and transparency, the modernization of state decisionmaking requires the design
of new agencies and functions to attend to new aims of the political policies,
with increasing civil control. Latin America has to improve political educational
awareness and the involvement of the people and to reduce corruption.
North America: The region’s dependence
on computer-augmented decisionmaking—from e-government to tele-business—creates
new vulnerabilities to manipulation by organized crime, corruption, and cyber-terrorism,
as discussed in Challenges 6 and 12. Self-organizing groups on the Internet are
becoming de facto decisionmakers in the region, with decisions made at the lowest
level appropriate to the problem.
Graph: Number of
international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)
Source:
Union of International Associations Year Book with Millennium Project estimates
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