Since 44% of countries affected by conflict return to war within five years of a cease-fire, “winning a war” is only a precondition to “winning the peace,” which requires deconstructing structures of violence and establishing structures of peace—an honest government, a sound economy, and a fair judiciary. The UN has established a Peacemaker Web site containing a wealth of information. The UN has 83,000 uniformed personnel and 15,000 civilians from 115 countries who serve in 18 UN peacekeeping operations today.
Future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing and organized crime’s access to nuclear materials give single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction—from biological weapons to low-level nuclear (“dirty”) bombs. The IAEA reported 149 confirmed incidents of illicit use of radioactive materials in 2006. Much of urban civilization depends on the Internet; hence, cyber weapons can also be considered a WMD deployable by an individual. In addition to ubiquitous sensors and security systems, we have to apply cognitive science to improve and connect education and mental health systems to detect and treat individuals who might grow up to use such weapons. Most terrorism is no longer centrally directed by groups such as Al Qaeda but is carried out by self-organizing actors inspired and trained by Web videos. There are 13 international agreements to counter terrorism, including the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, which entered into force in July 2007. The UN General Assembly adopted the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in 2006. Anti-terrorism has to focus more intensively on reaching out ideologically to those who would otherwise join these forces. It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than stop explosions of violence. Conflicts are less likely to involve armies on battlefields than individuals or small groups in urban areas. The distinctions among war, civil unrest, terrorism, and crime have become increasingly blurred, making conventional industrial-age military force less effective. At least 75% of those killed or wounded in armed conflicts are non-combatants. Climate change and falling water tables are expected to create migrations that could lead to future conflicts.
According to the Center for Defense Information, there were 15 wars (1,000 or more deaths) in 2007—the same as in 2006. In addition to the “global war on terrorism,” the wars in each region were: Africa 5, Asia 4, the Americas 2, the Middle East 2, and Europe 1. Meanwhile, there are over 30,000 nuclear weapons in the world with approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce over 100,000 nuclear weapons. Military expenditures are about $1.3 trillion per year, of which $30 billion are sales to developing countries. The UN estimated that more than 250,000 children were actively involved in more than 30 armed conflicts during 2006.
Even though the news is filled with conflicts, the vast majority of the world is living in peace, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade, dialogues among differing worldviews are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts are increasingly being settled by international interventions. The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, satellite surveillance, world travel, better living standards, and the evolution of the UN. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for diversity, equal rights, and alternatives to violence. Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes, as was done for the Middle East (see CD Chapter 3.7). UN early warning systems could be strengthened by involving NGOs and the media to generate the political will to act before massive disasters; advanced communications could be parachuted to local citizens so that local realities could be broadcast to the world. Sanctions should target elite criminals rather than innocent populations. New approaches to covering terrorism by the media are necessary for reducing “copy cat violence.” Governments should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons, create tracking systems for potential bioweapons assets, establish an international audit system for each weapon, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons to reduce future revenge cycles. The Global Peace Index produced by The Economist rated 121 countries in 2007 for their peacefulness via 24 indicators. A network of CDC-like centers will be needed to counter impacts of bioterrorism. We need to share research on conflict resolution and consensus building that focuses on the common ethical values and oneness that underlie human diversity.
Challenge 10 will have been addressed successfully when arms sales and violent crimes decrease by 50%. The “new security threats” should be integrated into a comprehensive, standardized, and quantitatively based global security index.