Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to increasing oil and food prices, to decreasing water-food-energy supplies per person, to climate change, and to increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions. These can trigger complex interactions of old ethnic and religious conflicts, civil unrest, terrorism, and crime, making conventional industrial-age military force less effective. Since many countries affected by conflict return to war within five years of a cease-fire, more serious efforts are required to deconstruct the structures of violence and establish structures of peace.

The vast majority of the world is living in peace, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade, cross-cultural dialogues are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts are increasingly being settled by international interventions. The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the UN. However, some recent setbacks have occurred, with failing states, separatist movements, and decreases in press freedom.

By mid-2008 there were 14 wars (conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths)—one fewer than in 2007. These wars were in Africa (5), Asia (4), the Americas (2), the Middle East (2), and worldwide anti-extremism (1). Beginning in 2008, there were 160,000 peacekeepers from all sources, of which the UN had 88,000 uniformed personnel and 17,000 civilians in 17 operations. Total military expenditures are about $1.3 trillion per year. There are an estimated 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world, approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium, and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons.

Future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing and organized crime’s access to nuclear materials give extremists and single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction—from biological weapons to low-level nuclear (“dirty”) bombs. Unauthorized use of nuclear or radioactive materials reports to IAEA averaged 150 per year between 2004 and 2007.

Much of urban civilization depends on the Internet; hence, cyber weapons can also be considered a WMD deployable by an individual. In addition to ubiquitous sensors and security systems in urban environments, we have to apply cognitive science to improve and connect education and mental health systems to detect and treat individuals who might otherwise grow up to use such weapons.

Early warning systems of governments and UN agencies could be better connected with NGOs and the media to help generate the political will to prevent or reduce conflicts. The UN has established www.un.org/peacemaker containing a wealth of information. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for the diversity, equal rights, common ethical values, and oneness that underlie human diversity. It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than to stop explosions of violence. Peace strategies without love, compassion, or spiritual outlooks are less likely to work, because intellectual or rational systems cannot overcome the emotional divisions that prevent unity and harmony. Counter-terrorism strategies should include many personal conversations with hardliner groups. Sanctions should target elite criminals rather than innocent populations. Advanced communications could be parachuted to local citizens so that local realities could be broadcast to the world.

Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes to show how peace is possible (see CD Chapter 3.7). The UN Security Council has received over 150 country reports on how to keep nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons out of the hands of terrorists and black marketers and how to improve international counterterrorism strategies. Networks of CDC-like centers to counter impacts of bioterrorism should be supported. Governments should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons, create tracking systems for potential bioweapons, establish an international audit system for each weapon, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons to reduce future revenge cycles.

Challenge 10 will be addressed seriously when arms sales and violent crimes decrease by 50% from their peak.

Graph: Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007