The Real-Time Delphi is a relatively new and efficient method for collecting and synthesizing expert opinions. The original Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s. Although it has produced many valuable insights for many around the world, it requires multiple rounds of questionnaires that can take months to complete. The big advantage of the RTD is that it is a “roundless” Delphi. There is no need for an explicit second round. The respondents participate by filling out an online questionnaire, and the results––both numerical and qualitative––are updated as responses are recorded in “real time.” Respondents can––and are encouraged to––revisit the questionnaire as many times as they want. Each time, they are shown their own responses as well as the updated answers of the others, and they can revise and change their own inputs based on this feedback.
The Real-Time Delphi has been developed and is continuously improved by Ted Gordon.
The Millennium Project offers three websites for running RTDs:
– the Global Futures Intelligence System (more open, but currently under code revision)
– the Real-Time Delphi Website (the original RTD website), for more proprietary data
– the 4CF HalnyX, 4th generation Smart Delphi platform with personalized questionnaire and proprietary data
– a description of the method (excerpt from the Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0)
– a description of some RTD studies conducted by the Millennium Project in 2008-2009 (Chapter 4 of the 2009 State of the Future)