Climate Action in the EU of 2035

Future Impacts, host of the Germany Node of The Millennium Project, has recently completed a year-long scenario project on “Climate Action in the EU of 2035: Enlargement Perspectives” for the European Climate Foundation, exploring how EU enlargement could shape climate action by 2035.

Following the EU’s new enlargement package adopted in late 2023, the project brought together over 240 experts from across Europe to examine the implications of accession, reform, and political priorities for the EU’s climate ambitions. Through forward-looking discussions and workshops, four alternative scenarios for Europe’s future were developed:

• More is Less: As defence drives European integration, simplified enlargement expands the EU without reform, making consensus on key issues harder to achieve. 
• Pacemakers and Stragglers: Under policy-based integration, a multi-tier EU expands the common market through staged accession. 
• Deadlock: With enlargement abandoned, the EU struggles to advance toward net zero, as trust and cooperation erode and democratic backsliding deepens in some member states.
• Reformed Resilience: A reformed, enlarged EU overcomes obstacles and gains momentum toward climate neutrality, driven by grassroots demand and global cooperation. 

The process highlights that enlargement is widely seen as likely—and potentially beneficial for global climate action—but its success depends heavily on effective EU reform, strong political will, and a clear commitment to democracy. Without these elements, both enlargement and climate action risk stalling.

The full report is available on the Future Impact’s website, along with a two-page summary of the scenarios and key insights.