An international assessment of how to govern the potential transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to potential Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is needed. If the initial conditions of AGI are not “right,” then it could evolve into an Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) that Stephen Hawking,[i] Elon Musk,[ii] and Bill Gates[iii] have warned could threaten the future of humanity.

There are many excellent centers studying values for and the ethical issues of ANI, but not potential global governance models for the transition to AGI. The distinctions among ANI, AGI, and ASI are usually missing in these studies; even the most comprehensive and detailed US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Report has little mention.[iv] Current work on AI governance is trying to catch up with the artificial narrow intelligence that is proliferating worldwide today; we also need to jump ahead to anticipate governance needs of what AGI could become.

It is argued that creating rules for governance of AGI too soon will stifle its development. Expert judgments vary about when AGI will be possible; however, some working to develop AGI believe it is possible to have AGI as soon as ten years.[v] Since it is likely to take ten years to: 1) develop ANI to AGI international or global agreements; 2) design the governance system; and 3) begin implementation, then it would be wise to begin exploring potential governance approaches and their potential effectiveness now.

The Millennium Project is now seeking sponsors and collaborators for this research. Email Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org or info@millennium-project.org.

[i] Stephen Hawkings says A.I. could be ‘worst event in the history of our civilization.’ https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/06/stephen-hawking-ai-could-be-worst-event-in-civilization.html

[ii] Elon Musk says all advanced AI development should be regulated, including at Tesla: https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/18/elon-musk-says-all-advanced-ai-development-should-be-regulated-including-at-tesla/

[iii] Microsoft’s Bill Gates insists AI is a threat: https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/18/elon-musk-says-all-advanced-ai-development-should-be-regulated-including-at-tesla/

[iv] The full final report of US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence is available at https://www.nscai.gov

[v] AI Multiple, 995 experts opinion: AGI / singularity by 2060 [2021 update] https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/, December 31, 2020