Lithuanian Node launches research project on quantitative assessment of participatory strategic foresight

The Lithuanian Node of the Millennium Project , hosted by the Vilnius university, is excited to announce the launch of a new research project: “Quantitative Impact Assessment Tool of Participatory Strategic Foresight,” funded by the Lithuanian Research Council from 2025 to 2028. Led by Erika Vaiginienė of Vilnius University (VU), Chair of the Lithuania Node, the project will be implemented in partnership with JSC Visionary Analytics (VA), with an interdisciplinary project team including Agne Paliokaite (VA), Gediminas Baublys (VU), Dovile Gaizauskiene (Futures Sandbox, VU), Aurinta Alenske (VA), and Jonas Antanavičius.

The research addresses a critical gap in strategic foresight and management studies: the lack of a validated, theory-based framework for quantitatively assessing the societal impacts of participatory foresight in policymaking. While anticipation and engagement are increasingly central to policymaking, existing models rarely capture the intangible, long-term benefits of involving citizens in future-oriented strategic processes.

Building on foundational work by Amanatidou (2014, 2017), Harper (2013), and Johnston (2012), the project proposes and empirically tests a new Participatory Foresight Impact Assessment Tool. This tool will systematically evaluate immediate, intermediate, and long-term foresight impacts, focusing on societal engagement across four key dimensions: future awareness raising, learning, facilitating collaboration, and embedding long-term commitment.

The empirical research will be grounded in Lithuania’s national visioning process, “Lithuania 2050,” through stakeholder focus groups, surveys, and advanced statistical analyses, including factor analysis and regression-based causal modeling. Expected outputs include a validated diagnostic tool, peer-reviewed publications, policy briefs, an “Anticipatory Governance and Foresight” workshop, and practical recommendations for integrating participatory foresight impact assessment into policymaking.

Findings will be shared with the academic community and international institutions such as the EU JRC, OECD, and The Millennium Project, through publications, conferences, and stakeholder workshops.

This initiative represents a significant step forward in enhancing evidence-based foresight practices and strengthening the role of participatory approaches in shaping sustainable, long-term policies.